3:15 Navan
A large 25-runner handicap over 5f180y at Navan on yielding ground looks set to be dominated by a lone leader given the pace shape. Most of the field are limited performers with modest recent form, and the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top end with only small margins between the leading principals. The race poses a test for unproven sorts on the surface while rewarding those with previous success at the track and trip.
How the race shapes up
With a high-confidence lone leader likely to have an uncontested lead, the pace shape suggests a straightforward front-running ride that could prove difficult for the many held-up types to overcome. The vast majority of runners are held-up performers who produce their effort late, meaning the race could be won or lost from the front as closers struggle to peg back an uncontested leader on this turning track. The key question is whether any prominent runner can get close enough or if the leader will simply get away, with the wide draw for several principals adding to the difficulty of coming from the rear.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Cash On Black KTB Selection65/100
Cash On Black is a limited performer who has been well beaten on all three starts this year and now tries first-time headgear from a wide draw in stall 18. The trainer continues in solid form at this track with a 16% strike rate from 25 runs and the jockey has a 75% strike rate at Navan from only four rides though with too few rides here to form any reliable view overall. The horse is unproven on yielding ground having had no previous runs on it and has no course form on record. Usually held up and producing its effort late, it will need to find improvement to feature in a race where the pace shape may not favour closers.
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2Rosato64/100
Rosato is a limited horse who has won two of his three runs at Navan and also holds a solid record on yielding ground with two wins and two places from five starts. He has won at today's trip distance though his recent form of 202094 is patchy at best. The trainer holds a strong 22% strike rate here while the jockey's 8% record from 40 rides is more modest. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, this five-year-old from stall 19 will look to use his course knowledge but must overcome the uncontested lead likely to be set in a race that favours the front.
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3Step Back In Time56/100
Step Back In Time is a limited performer who has won four times at this track from 15 runs and also has a solid record on yielding ground with two wins and four places from eight starts. Stepping up in trip today having last run over 5f, he has won twice at this distance from 15 attempts. The trainer records a 12% strike rate here from 65 runs while the jockey is operating at 5% from 508 rides. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence from the favourable draw in stall 1, this eight-year-old has the course-and-distance profile to get involved if he can close effectively against the expected lone leader.
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4Carrigans Grove55/100
Carrigans Grove is a limited performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He has won over today's trip but has only one placing from two runs on yielding ground and the wide draw in stall 21 adds difficulty. The trainer has a modest 9% strike rate here while the jockey is still seeking her first Navan winner. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, this five-year-old will need to bounce back to a better level if he is to overcome both the recent form and the pace shape that may not suit closers.
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5Treasured Royal54/100
Treasured Royal is a modest performer who has won once from two runs at Navan. Dropping back to 5f having last run over 7f, he holds a win at today's trip from eight attempts. The trainer's modest 8% strike rate at the track is offset by the jockey's solid 9% record here from 70 rides though the horse remains unproven on yielding ground. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence from stall 5, this three-year-old has course experience in his favour but must prove himself on the surface in a contest where the front-running shape could make life tough for those coming from off the pace.
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6Are You In Or Out53/100
Are You In Or Out is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and finished well down the field in both runs at Navan. Dropping back to 5f having last tried the trip when winning, he is 0-5 on yielding ground and has shown little spark on his most recent starts while the trainer has a solid 13% strike rate here.
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7Glen Breeze53/100
Glen Breeze is a limited performer who has shown little for a while and finished well down the field in both runs here. Dropping back from a mile to a trip at which he has placed twice without winning, the big-field draw in stall 17 adds another negative while the trainer holds a 10% strike rate at Navan from 60 runs.
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8Hooves Your Daddy52/100
Hooves Your Daddy is a limited performer who has shown nothing better than modest placed form this year. Having already tried this trip three times without success and been well held on his only previous run here, both trainer and jockey operate at a 7% strike rate at Navan.
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9The Cosy Corner52/100
The Cosy Corner is a limited sort who has shown little in six starts and finished well down the field in both runs at this track. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps back up to 5f while the trainer holds a solid 10% strike-rate at Navan from 60 runs.
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10Gaineamh Min50/100
Gaineamh Min is a limited performer who has shown very little in three starts to date, finishing well beaten on each occasion. The trip looks about right having tried it twice already though the yard's modest record at Navan offers no obvious encouragement.
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11Coincidental Glory49/100
Coincidental Glory is a modest performer who has shown a bit of ability on this track, finishing second here on his only visit. He has placed at today's trip but is 0-4 on yielding ground and now tries headgear for the first time while the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Navan and wide draw add to the negatives.
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12Jackandthefox48/100
Jackandthefox is a limited performer who has shown very little in six starts this year and finished well down the field in both runs at this track. The trainer has a solid 16% strike rate at Navan but the horse is unproven on yielding ground and steps up in trip today.
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13Aboveheronlysky48/100
Aboveheronlysky is a limited performer who showed some promise when third on debut here over this trip but has run poorly in four starts since. The trainer's record at Navan is modest while the 5 lb claimer has a solid strike rate at the track though the small overall sample makes her hard to gauge with confidence.
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14Beach Barbie47/100
Beach Barbie is a limited performer who has shown little since a placed effort at this trip on her second start. She was well beaten on her only previous visit to Navan and has drawn the widest stall today while trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track.
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15Rodeeve46/100
Rodeeve is a limited performer who has won once over today's 5f trip but has been out of form for some time with just one win from the last 16 starts. First-time at Navan on yielding ground that he has tried only once without placing, both trainer and jockey remain winless at the track from modest samples.
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16One Cool Bear46/100
One Cool Bear is a limited performer who has shown little at this track in two starts and is 0-2 on yielding ground. Stepping up in trip today having been placed once at this distance without winning, the trainer's modest 5% strike-rate at Navan is backed by a large sample.
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17Verified45/100
Verified is a limited performer who has shown only one placing from seven runs at Navan and struggles to find the frame on yielding ground. Recent form includes a win at this trip but the overall record remains modest and the yard's poor strike rate here adds little encouragement.
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18Asdana45/100
Asdana is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent runs and has failed to win in 18 starts. Having placed once from five runs at Navan but 0-3 on yielding ground, the trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here.
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19Four Blondes44/100
Four Blondes is a limited performer who has been out of the frame on her last five starts and looks vulnerable from a wide draw. She has placed without winning at today's trip and the yard has a modest record here though the 7 lb claimer is still seeking her first Navan success from 14 rides.
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20Banish Misfortune44/100
Banish Misfortune is a limited performer who has struggled in six starts to date and showed little at this track on his only previous visit. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse who has never been placed while the trainer has had too few runners here to judge.
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21Pansy Poe43/100
Pansy Poe has shown little for some time but ran her best race of the year when second last time and has placed twice at today's trip. She is limited on the balance of her form and was well beaten on her only visit to Navan while the trainer's record here is poor though she remains unproven on yielding ground.
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22Amazing Force43/100
Amazing Force is a limited performer who has shown very little in three starts to date. Dropping back to an untried 5f is a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 15 adds another complication and both trainer and jockey operate at a modest strike rate here at Navan.
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23Eichan San42/100
Eichan San is a limited performer who has struggled for consistency and shown little spark in recent starts. Dropping back to 5f where he has placed twice from three runs though he has looked happier over longer trips, the trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Navan and the horse's poor record on yielding ground add to the negatives.
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24The Love Machine41/100
The Love Machine is a limited performer who has won once here from two runs and also has a win on yielding ground from four starts. Recent form has been patchy though he did finish second at this trip last time while the step back up in trip looks a fair question given his record at the distance and the trainer is 0% from 17 runs at Navan.
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25Emily's Boy35/100
Emily's Boy is a limited performer who has been well beaten in all five starts and showed nothing when last of 21 over this course and distance on debut. Dropping sharply in trip from 1m2f and with the wide draw in stall 14 another negative, the trainer has failed to land a winner from 12 runs at Navan.
KTB verdict
Cash On Black is the KTB Selection in a race where the pace shape looks to hand a big advantage to the clear front-runner. The selection brings limited form having been well beaten on all three starts this year but first-time headgear, the trainer's solid record at Navan and the jockey's eye-catching strike rate at the track provide the hope for improvement from a wide draw. The main dangers are Rosato with his strong course record and yielding-ground form, Step Back In Time who has won four times at Navan and shown a solid surface record, and the pair of modest but course-placed types in Carrigans Grove and Treasured Royal who could get involved if the leader is reeled in.
KTB Selection Cash On Black
This is the narrative read of the 3:15 Navan. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Navan racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Navan results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the pace shape favour the leader so strongly?
The supplied pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence and little to pressure it, suggesting an uncontested lead that can be hard for the many held-up closers to peg back.
Which horse has the strongest course record at Navan?
Step Back In Time has won four times at this track from 15 runs.
How many principals are unproven on yielding ground?
Cash On Black, Treasured Royal and several others in the field have had no runs on yielding ground.
Who has the best jockey record at Navan among the principals?
Orla Tynan has a 75% strike rate at Navan from four rides when riding for Miss Jennifer Anne Lynch.
Which horses are trying headgear for the first time?
Cash On Black and The Cosy Corner are both fitted with first-time headgear while Coincidental Glory also tries headgear.
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