3:51 Wolverhampton (AW)
This Class 5 handicap division at Wolverhampton over 6f20y on standard going brings together a field of ten modest three-year-olds and older horses. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals rated between 60 and 48, suggesting a competitive race where course form, surface aptitude and the ability to handle a strong pace will be decisive. Overall the numbers point to a contest likely to be fought out by those with prior experience of the venue and a proven record on the all-weather.
How the race shapes up
With four confirmed front-runners in Campenaerts, Arishka's Dream, Far Too Fizzy and Shaw Park, plus Early Release and Lamlash Bay also inclined to race prominently, the pace shape is strongly front-loaded. The race is expected to be run at a strong gallop that could leave the leaders vulnerable in the final furlong. That scenario would play into the hands of hold-up performers such as Queen Sana, Phoenix Moon, Fordham Flyer and Montpellier Green, posing the key question of whether any of the pace-setters can sustain their effort or if the race will fall late to a closer.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Campenaerts60/100
Campenaerts is a modest performer who has run creditably on his last two starts, finishing second here over this trip on his most recent outing. He has a solid record on the surface with a win and two further places from three starts on standard going, and his course form shows one win from two runs at Wolverhampton. The yard posts a 10% strike-rate here from 400 runs while the jockey is operating at 9% from 34 rides. Drawn low in stall 2 and a habitual front-runner, he is sure to be prominent early in what is likely to be a strongly-run race.
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2Queen Sana KTB Selection60/100
Queen Sana is a modest performer who has been a regular at this track and has placed twice in three runs here without winning. She has shown she can be competitive on standard ground and has already won over today's trip. Trainer and jockey both hold solid records at Wolverhampton, with the yard at 17% and the rider at 20%. Usually held up, her run-style looks ideally suited to the anticipated strong pace, allowing her to come from off it in the straight.
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3Arishka's Dream59/100
Arishka's Dream is a modest performer who has won once here and once at today's trip from eight attempts. Recent form has been patchy with two placed efforts from the last six runs but she does handle the standard surface and has shown enough at this track to stay competitive. Trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at Wolverhampton. A front-runner by inclination, she will be up with the pace in a race where that could prove a double-edged sword.
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4Far Too Fizzy52/100
Far Too Fizzy is a modest performer who has run five times here without winning yet has been placed on three occasions and looks suited by the trip having won twice over it. Consistent rather than progressive of late with form figures of 402354 and has shown enough placed efforts on standard ground to suggest he can be competitive again. Trainer and jockey both have established but below-average records at the track. Stepping up in class from a low draw, his front-running style will see him contest the lead in what promises to be a strong early gallop.
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5Shaw Park48/100
Shaw Park is a modest performer who has run six times here without winning and has a poor recent record on this surface with just one win from 28 starts. Drops back to an untried 6f today which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also applied. Trainer's modest 7% strike rate at the track is matched by the jockey's 10% record here. Another who tends to make the running, he will be in the thick of the early battle from stall 6.
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6Early Release48/100
Early Release is a modest performer who has been busy this year and is 3-11 at this trip. Has placed once from four runs at Wolverhampton but his three most recent efforts here have been poor. Trainer's solid record at the track is offset by the 7 lb claimer having only four rides here so far.
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7Phoenix Moon47/100
Phoenix Moon is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place on his only previous visit to Wolverhampton. He has four wins from 13 runs on standard going and has won at this trip, though his recent form has been modest. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike-rate here while the jockey operates at 10%.
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8Fordham Flyer46/100
Fordham Flyer is a modest performer who showed fair form when placed twice on turf last season but was well held on reappearance. Stall 10 looks no help on this first AW start and the trip has not really suited so far. Trainer has a solid 9% strike-rate here from a big sample while the jockey's tiny record at the track is too small to judge.
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9Lamlash Bay44/100
Lamlash Bay is a modest performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and two placings from eight runs. Has won at this trip but only one run on standard ground so far and now makes a first appearance at Wolverhampton. Trainer has a 6% strike rate here from 139 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from 11 rides at the track.
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10Montpellier Green36/100
Montpellier Green is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and finished a remote last of ten on his only previous visit to Wolverhampton. He drops back to 6f today having failed to make an impact at that trip in two previous attempts. The trainer’s modest strike rate here and the jockey’s poor record add little encouragement.
KTB verdict
The KTB Selection is Queen Sana. She has been a regular at Wolverhampton, placing twice in three runs here, and her hold-up style is perfectly placed to capitalise if the anticipated strong pace collapses late. Her record on standard ground is competitive and the combination of yard and rider both hold above-average figures at the track. The main dangers are Campenaerts, who has the best recent course form having been second here last time, and Arishka's Dream, who has won over the course and trip and will again be forward.
KTB Selection Queen Sana
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Campenaerts | 7/2 | LiveScore Bet |
| Queen Sana | 11/4 | Bet365 |
| Arishka's Dream | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Far Too Fizzy | 6/1 | 7Bet |
| Shaw Park | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Early Release | 20/1 | 7Bet |
| Phoenix Moon | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Fordham Flyer | 25/1 | Bet365 |
| Lamlash Bay | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Montpellier Green | 10/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 3:51 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Wolverhampton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the pace?
Campenaerts, Arishka's Dream, Far Too Fizzy, Shaw Park, Early Release and Lamlash Bay are all inclined to race prominently or make the running.
How many wins has Queen Sana recorded on the all-weather?
Queen Sana has no wins from six runs on standard ground but has placed on two of them and has already won over today's trip.
What is the course record of the top-rated horse Campenaerts?
Campenaerts has a win and a second from two starts at Wolverhampton.
Which runner is trying first-time headgear?
Shaw Park is fitted with first-time headgear.
How many of the field have previous winning form at 6f?
Queen Sana, Arishka's Dream, Far Too Fizzy, Early Release, Phoenix Moon and Lamlash Bay have all won at this trip.
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