3:55 Cork
The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Navigation Stakes is a Listed race over 1m2f90y at Cork on yielding to soft ground. A field of twelve three-year-olds assembles for this Class 1 contest, with the KTB Fit scores tightly bunched between 55 and 41. The numbers point to a race where experience at the trip, an ability to handle the ground and the likely uncontested lead will all play significant parts.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is that of a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to bridge. Summer Is Tomorrow is the only front-runner in the line-up and should be allowed an easy time on the front end given that the other eleven runners are all held-up types or, in one case, mid-division. The key question is whether the leader can dictate terms and kick on turning in, or whether the pack of held-up performers, including the two joint-top-rated on KTB Fit, can muster a strong enough late rally on this ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Action KTB Selection55/100
Action is a smart performer who has shown mixed form this year yet displayed useful ability when placed over today's trip earlier in the season. He now drops back from 1m6f while making his first appearance at Cork on ground he has never tried. The Aidan O'Brien yard maintains a solid 22% strike rate at the track from 666 runs although the jockey's 10% record from 659 rides is more modest. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to come from off the pace in a race where the leader is likely to have an uncontested lead. His recent form reads 207680 and he carries an official rating that places him firmly in contention at this level.
-
2Shaihaan55/100
Shaihaan is a useful performer who has shown mixed form this year, winning over this trip earlier but finishing down the field in his last two starts over further. He drops back in distance today having already shown he can handle yielding to soft ground from one run that brought no win or place. The Donnacha Aidan O'Brien stable has an 11% strike rate at Cork from 73 runs while Chris Hayes operates at 7% from 609 rides here. Like the selection he is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence in that run-style. His recent form figures of -14355 still leave him with a live chance in a race where the pace should be up front and the closers will need to time their runs.
-
3Caught U Sleeping53/100
Caught U Sleeping is a useful performer who has been placed on all three starts this season, including when third over C&D on his only visit to Cork. He steps up in trip again today having already won over this distance, although his sole run on yielding to soft ground brought no win or place. Noel Meade and Colin Keane both bring solid records to the race, the trainer at 15% from 564 runs and the jockey at 14% from 483 rides at Cork. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be aiming to come from off the pace against a likely clear leader. His recent form of 812334 underlines his consistency at this level.
-
4Summer Is Tomorrow51/100
Summer Is Tomorrow is a useful performer who has run well at this trip on two of his last three starts and showed strong form when winning a handicap at the Curragh in June. He has already been placed at Cork on his one visit and acts on a range of ground, though he remains unproven on yielding to soft. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a solid 12% strike rate at the track from 507 runs while jockey J M Sheridan is operating at a lower 3% from 176 rides here. His front-running style with medium confidence in the assessment makes him the likely lone leader in a race where that position could be hard to peg back. Recent form reads 692214.
-
5Manton Bay50/100
Manton Bay is a useful performer with a solid recent record of 282125 that includes two wins and consistent placings. He has placed at today's trip without winning and showed he can handle some cut in the ground though his sole run on yielding to soft brought no win or place. The David Marnane yard's modest 7% strike rate at Cork from 253 runs is offset by W J Lee's stronger 15% record from 645 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will need to come from towards the rear in a contest with a clear leader. His KTB Fit of 50 keeps him in the mix among the principals.
-
6Latin America49/100
Latin America is a useful performer who has shown consistent form in three runs this year, winning once over today's trip. Drawn in stall 1 which should help on this turning track, though trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Cork and the yard's A/E figure suggests they are underperforming here.
-
7Magnum Cor47/100
Magnum Cor is a useful performer who showed plenty when winning a maiden on debut before finishing fourth in a stronger race last time. He drops back in trip today to 1m2f which poses a fresh question while remaining unproven on yielding to soft. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a solid 12% strike rate at Cork while Declan McDonogh operates at 9% here.
-
8Garden Party47/100
Garden Party is a fair 3-year-old who has already won both starts at this track, including a recent success over 1m2f. He steps back up in trip from his latest 1m1f run and holds solid ratings for the level. Aidan O'Brien has a 22% strike rate at Cork while R P Whelan posts a 9% strike rate here.
-
9Mr Vettori46/100
Mr Vettori is a useful performer who has shown steady form this year without quite landing a big one. He finished second of six over this course and trip on his only previous visit to Cork but was well held when stepped up to 1m4f last time. The yard's modest 10% strike rate at the track and the jockey's 4% record here add to the negatives.
-
10Back Straight44/100
Back Straight has shown fair ability in two starts, finishing second then winning over a shorter trip. He now steps up to an untested 1m2f which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer and jockey both record 9% strike rates at Cork from decent-sized samples.
-
11Alphecca42/100
Alphecca is a useful performer who has shown his best form when placed on yielding to soft ground. He drops back from 1m4f to 1m2f today having failed to win in one previous try at the shorter trip. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at Cork while the jockey is operating at 7% here.
-
12Fallacy41/100
Fallacy is a fair performer who showed improved form when third at Listowel last time. He has already tried today's trip without success and was well held on his only previous run here at Cork. Both trainer and jockey have modest 8% strike rates at the track from large samples.
KTB verdict
Action is the KTB Selection. He is a smart performer who showed useful ability when placed over today's trip earlier in the season and now drops back from 1m6f, with the yard's solid record at Cork helping his claims despite the jockey's more modest figures. The race looks likely to be run with Summer Is Tomorrow enjoying an uncontested lead, which will make it hard for held-up performers such as Action, Shaihaan and Caught U Sleeping to close the gap on yielding to soft ground. Caught U Sleeping brings strong course form while Shaihaan has already shown he handles the surface, and both look the main dangers to the selection.
KTB Selection Action
This is the narrative read of the 3:55 Cork. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cork racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Cork results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to secure the uncontested lead?
Summer Is Tomorrow is the only front-runner and should be allowed an easy time on the front end given that the other eleven runners are all held-up types or mid-division.
How many of the field have previous experience of yielding to soft ground?
Four runners have previous experience of yielding to soft ground: Shaihaan, Caught U Sleeping, Manton Bay and Alphecca.
Which horse has the strongest trainer strike rate at Cork?
Aidan O'Brien has a 22% strike rate at Cork from 666 runs, the highest in the field.
Has any horse won over the course and distance?
No horse has won over the course and distance although Caught U Sleeping has been placed over C&D and Mr Vettori has been placed over this course and trip.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at Cork among the runners?
W J Lee has a 15% strike rate at Cork from 645 rides, the highest in the field.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies