4:00 Chepstow
This Class 6 handicap division at Chepstow over 7f16y on good to soft ground features an 11-runner field where the KTB numbers point to a race among limited performers. The top-rated horse on Fit Score stands out with course-winning form and a solid record on the surface, while several others bring recent placings or class drops that could make them competitive in a steadily-run affair. Overall the KTB assessments underline that this looks an ordinary contest where proven course and going affinity could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a clear leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy should pay dividends. With several runners, including the selection, tending to be held up, the key question is whether those coming from off the pace can pick their way through in a race where the leaders may not go hard enough early. Prominent runners could therefore enjoy an advantage if the tempo remains modest throughout.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Vape KTB Selection63/100
Vape is a limited performer who has won three times at this track from 14 runs. He steps up from 6f to 7f today having been placed once in six starts at the trip without winning, and his record on good to soft reads a solid two wins and three places from five starts. The trainer holds a 16% strike rate at Chepstow from 73 runs while the jockey has only four rides here which is too small a sample to judge. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 9. His recent form reads 0-0468 and he carries the KTB Selection tag with a Fit Score of 63.
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2It's A Mugs Game55/100
It's A Mugs Game is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in three starts to date. He steps up from 6f to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question. Trainer and jockey both hold solid records at Chepstow, the yard recording an 11% strike rate from 44 runs and the rider a 17% strike rate from 71 rides. Typically settling in midfield, he drops in class from a recent form line of 0-46. His lack of experience on good to soft ground adds an element of uncertainty.
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3Rovinia46/100
Rovinia is a limited performer who has been in decent form of late with two wins and two seconds from her last six starts. She has placed on her only visit to Chepstow and is 1 from 1 on good to soft, while the trip clearly suits as she has won twice over it from six attempts. The trainer has an 8% strike rate here from 76 runs and the claiming jockey is still seeking his first Chepstow winner from ten rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, her recent form reads 952221 and she is drawn in stall 3.
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4Eye Of The Water45/100
Eye Of The Water is a limited performer who has been placed a few times at this track without winning in eight runs here. He drops back to his winning trip today having last run over a mile and he has handled good to soft ground in the past. Trainer remains winless from nine runs at Chepstow while the jockey has a solid 16% strike rate from 102 rides at the course. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, his recent form reads 446363 and he is drawn in stall 10.
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5Angel's Call45/100
Angel's Call is a limited class performer with a patchy recent record that includes one win from its last six starts. She drops back to 7f having scored at the trip earlier in her career though she showed little on her only run on good to soft ground. Trainer's 2% strike rate from 275 runs at Chepstow is poor while the 3lb claimer has a solid 17% record here from 24 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, her recent form reads 979413 and she is drawn in stall 5.
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6Marisitta44/100
Marisitta is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent best of fifth at this track. She has won once from ten runs at Chepstow but steps up to 7f for the first time today having failed to place in ten previous attempts at the distance. The trainer and jockey both operate at a 9% strike rate here from large samples.
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7A Rose Adaay44/100
A Rose Adaay is a limited performer who has been placed twice from six runs at Chepstow without winning. She drops back to 7f having been well held over longer trips lately and first-time headgear is now fitted. Trainer records a 9% strike-rate here from a big sample while the jockey has an above-average record from limited rides.
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8Kaiko41/100
Kaiko is a limited performer who has shown little in four starts to date and looks up against it in this company. Trainer has a solid 11% strike rate at Chepstow from a big sample while the jockey is operating above expectations with a 12% strike rate here. Trip is a question mark after one unsuccessful run at this distance and the small amount of form leaves too many unknowns.
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9Lady V40/100
Lady V is a limited filly who has shown only modest form in three starts at sprint trips. She steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of her. Trainer is 0-6 at the track while Rossa Ryan brings a solid 21% strike rate here.
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10Big Moonrise38/100
Big Moonrise is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in four starts. He drops back from a mile to a trip he has already tried three times without success, while the small sample on good to soft leaves his going preference unclear. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 12% strike rate here from large samples.
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11Lady Margret34/100
Lady Margret is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and looks up against it from stall 8. She has run twice at Chepstow without placing and is unproven on good to soft ground. The drop back to 7f is an unknown and the 0-from-5 record for the jockey at the track adds further caution.
KTB verdict
Vape is the KTB Selection and arrives with the strongest course record of the field, three wins from 14 runs at Chepstow, allied to a solid two wins and three places from five starts on good to soft. His ability to handle the step back up to 7f, where he has been placed before, and the trainer's healthy 16% strike rate at the venue give him the clearest profile. The main dangers are likely to come from Rovinia, who has been in decent recent form and has already placed over course and distance, and Eye Of The Water, who knows the track well and drops back to a winning trip.
KTB Selection Vape
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 31 Aug. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Vape | 20/1 | 7Bet |
| It's A Mugs Game | 25/1 | 7Bet |
| Rovinia | 11/8 | 7Bet |
| Eye Of The Water | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Angel's Call | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Marisitta | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| A Rose Adaay | 8/1 | 7Bet |
| Kaiko | 80/1 | 7Bet |
| Lady V | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Big Moonrise | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Lady Margret | 35/1 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 4:00 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Chepstow results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record at Chepstow?
Vape, with three wins from 14 runs at the track.
How many runners prefer to race held up?
Multiple runners including Vape, Rovinia, Angel's Call, Marisitta, A Rose Adaay, Kaiko, Big Moonrise and Lady Margret are usually held up.
Which horse is dropping in class?
It's A Mugs Game and Lady V are both dropping in class.
Who is the only horse to have won over the course and distance combination?
Vape has won here, though the exact distance breakdown shows three course wins overall.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Chepstow among those represented?
John & Rhys Flint with a 16% strike rate from 73 runs.
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