4:18 Beverley
A competitive Class 4 handicap over the minimum trip at Beverley on good ground brings together a field of 12 where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top. Brummell tops the figures on 63 with Desert Treasure a narrow second on 62, while Call To Action, Accrual and Almarada Prince complete the principals, all rated between 60 and 55. The race features several horses with placed form at the track and a strong emphasis on proven ability at five furlongs.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace shape assessed at high confidence and at least two habitual front-runners present, the race is expected to be run at a solid clip from early on. Brummell, Desert Treasure and Accrual are all noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, which sets up the possibility of the pace collapsing in the later stages. That scenario would play into the hands of the hold-up horses such as Call To Action, Almarada Prince and several others drawn towards the outer stalls. The key question is whether the prominent group can dictate matters or if the race will fall apart late to favour those delivered from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Brummell KTB Selection63/100
Brummell is a fair performer who has won both of his previous starts at Beverley and holds solid figures on good ground, with two wins from four runs. He drops back to 5f today having scored five times at the trip from 15 attempts, though his recent form of 7-3643 suggests he is vulnerable to sharper rivals. The yard posts a 15% strike rate here from a big sample of 260 runs while the 5 lb claimer Tom Kiely-Marshall adds value with his 9% strike rate at the track. Drawn in stall 4, he tends to make the running or race on the pace and his course record of two wins from two starts makes him the one to beat. Overall he looks to have the right blend of track knowledge and conditions in his favour.
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2Desert Treasure62/100
Desert Treasure is a fair 3-year-old who has already won twice at this trip from six starts. He has shown solid form on good ground with two wins from three runs and looks well placed from stall 8. William Haggas has a 29% strike rate at Beverley from 167 runs while Oisin Orr is less established at the track with a 19% strike rate from 134 rides. Stepping up in class today, his recent form reads 1-0772 and he tends to make the running or race on the pace. The combination of his speed at the minimum trip and the powerful yard make him a major player in what looks a strongly-run race.
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3Call To Action60/100
Call To Action is a fair performer who has been knocking on the door this season with two seconds from his last five starts. He has already shown his liking for Beverley by finishing second here on his only visit and acts on good ground with a win and four places from five runs. Dropping back to 5f is a plus as he has won twice at the trip from eight attempts. Trained by the Easterbys who have a 14% strike rate at the track from 240 runs, he is ridden by Joanna Mason who matches that 14% strike rate from 253 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited to the expected strong pace.
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4Accrual59/100
Accrual is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent record of 305137. He has shown he can win on good ground and at this trip, recording four victories from 19 starts over five furlongs. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate here from 430 runs while this is the horse's first visit to Beverley. Tending to make the running or race on the pace from stall 9, he adds to the strength of the early pace. His ability to win at the trip gives him a solid chance if he can rediscover his best form.
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5Almarada Prince55/100
Almarada Prince is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with four consecutive placed efforts. He drops back to 5f having won twice from four starts at the trip, and he has shown ability on good ground with two wins and three places from nine runs. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate from 692 runs at Beverley while this is the horse's first run at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that assessment, he is drawn in stall 3. His recent placed form suggests he should be thereabouts if the race falls apart late as expected.
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6Big Cyril52/100
Big Cyril is a fair performer who ran below form when last seen over 6f. He drops back to an untried 5f today which asks a fresh question, while this is also his first run at Beverley. The trainer operates at a 10% strike rate here from 219 runs.
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7I'm Dan Dare49/100
I'm Dan Dare is a modest performer who has shown a mixed bag this year with two wins and two heavy defeats from his last six runs. Drawn in stall one at a track he has already tried without success, he has placed twice from five runs on good ground and holds a solid record at this trip with two wins from eight attempts. Trainer Mark Walford holds a 13% strike rate here from 151 runs while Jack Garritty also rides the track regularly.
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8Straight Ahead48/100
Straight Ahead is a fair 3-year-old who has been consistent rather than progressive lately, finishing second twice and sixth twice in his last four starts. He has already shown he handles Beverley, with a second and a sixth from two runs here, and he has won twice at today's 5f trip, though he now drops back from 6f. First-time headgear is tried while the trainer's modest 13% strike rate at the track still produces an above-par A/E of 1.11.
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9Fierce45/100
Fierce is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing in the first four in five of his last six starts. Placed once from three runs at Beverley and has a win and four places from six runs on good ground, though he is dropping back to 5f today having last run over 6f. Trainer Paul Midgley has a 9% strike rate from 692 runs here while Jason Hart also rides.
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10Empress Olivia45/100
Empress Olivia is a modest performer who has shown some spark at this track, finishing second here on her penultimate start before a lesser effort last time. She has placed twice at this trip and acts on good ground, though her overall strike-rate remains modest after 14 runs. Trainer holds a solid 13% strike-rate at Beverley from a big sample while the jockey also knows the place.
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11Emperor Caradoc44/100
Emperor Caradoc is a modest performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without looking like winning. Has run twice at Beverley without placing and drops back to 5f today where he has won once from seven attempts. Trainer has a 9% strike rate here from a large sample while jockey has a solid record at the track.
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12Qila42/100
Qila is a modest performer who has shown some consistency of late with placed efforts on three of her last four starts. She has already run well here at Beverley when finishing third and has been placed twice at today's trip. The trainer's modest 9 percent strike rate at the track from a large sample is a slight negative.
KTB verdict
Brummell is the KTB Selection. He has already won both previous starts at Beverley, acts well on good ground and drops back to a trip at which he has scored five times. His prominent run-style fits the shape of a race that could be strongly run, and the yard's solid record at the track adds further confidence. The main dangers are Desert Treasure, who brings the benefit of the Haggas yard and has good early speed, and Call To Action, who is suited by the likely pace collapse having shown his liking for the track and trip. Almarada Prince and Accrual are next in the pecking order among a field where several hold-up performers could be well placed if the front-runners go too hard.
KTB Selection Brummell
This is the narrative read of the 4:18 Beverley. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Beverley racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Beverley results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Brummell, Desert Treasure and Accrual all tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Why is dropping back to 5f a positive for Call To Action?
He has won twice at the trip from eight attempts.
How many wins has Brummell recorded at Beverley?
Two wins from two starts.
Which principal is stepping up in class?
Desert Treasure.
What is the expected benefit for hold-up horses in this race?
The strong pace could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
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