4:25 Cork
This Irish EBF Fillies Maiden at Cork over a mile on yielding to soft ground brings together a field of fifteen two-year-olds, the majority of whom are making their racecourse debuts. With no established leader in the pace shape, the race is expected to develop into a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy early could prove an advantage. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, underlining the typical maiden uncertainty where pedigree, sales background and powerful connections carry most of the weight.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run contest where the early fractions are likely to be modest. Several runners are noted as usually held up, including Golden Ring, Torvella and Cross Of Stars, which could leave the race to be fought out by those positioned more prominently. The key question is which of the unexposed debutants can translate their pedigree promise into a forward performance on this ground and in a tactical set-up.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Captivating KTB Selection53/100
Captivating is the KTB Selection. This Dubawi filly makes her debut for Aidan O'Brien, whose 22% strike rate at Cork from 666 runs provides a strong platform. Jack Cleary takes the ride with a 5 lb claim and brings an 18% strike rate at the track from 34 rides, while the trainer-jockey combination shows 28/199 (14%) with an A/E of 0.86. The going appears to suit on pedigree, though there is no course win on record. With low data confidence the assessment rests on pedigree, sales background and the powerful yard.
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2Duchessofaquitaine52/100
Duchessofaquitaine arrives as a newcomer with no racecourse experience. P Twomey has a strong 33% strike rate at Cork from 107 runs and teams up with W J Lee, who posts a 15% strike rate at the track from 645 rides; their combined record stands at 182/675 (27%) with an A/E of 1.01. The Sea The Stars pedigree offers encouragement on yielding to soft ground, although there is no course win on record. With low data confidence the assessment is based almost entirely on sales and pedigree background.
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3Gods Love49/100
Gods Love is another debutant, this time from the G M Lyons yard which has a 17% strike rate at Cork from 363 runs. Colin Keane is in the saddle and brings a 14% strike rate at the track from 483 rides; the trainer-jockey partnership reads 698/3548 (20%) with an A/E of 0.92. By Dubawi, she should handle the ground, but there is no course win on record. With no racecourse form available the pedigree and sales background will determine the level of interest.
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4Alaraza48/100
Alaraza is a newcomer representing Dermot Weld, who has a solid 17% strike rate at Cork from 832 runs and has sent out plenty of winning juveniles here. Chris Hayes is a regular pick for the stable despite his own 7% strike rate at the track from 609 rides; together they show 144/1175 (12%) with an A/E of 0.77. The New Bay pedigree is not a strong pointer on this ground and there is no course win on record. With low data confidence the assessment rests on pedigree, sales background and powerful connections.
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5Knightlight48/100
Knightlight makes her debut for Henry de Bromhead, whose 14% strike rate at Cork from 526 runs is respectable. Robbie Colgan rides with a more modest 4% strike rate at the track from 287 rides; their combined record is 0/27 (0%) with an A/E of 0.00. By Lope De Vega she should cope with the ground, but there is no course win on record. With no racecourse form and only low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on sales and pedigree background.
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6Somebody Loves Me47/100
Somebody Loves Me is an Aidan O'Brien newcomer with the yard's solid 22% strike rate at Cork from 666 runs behind her. The Frankel pedigree is a positive, but there is no racecourse form and the jockey has a steady 9% record at the track from 376 rides.
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7Lady Chancalot47/100
Lady Chancalot showed little when ninth on her sole start over 7f. She steps up to a mile for the first time which poses a fresh question, while both trainer and jockey operate at a modest 7% strike rate at Cork from decent-sized samples and she is unproven on yielding to soft.
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8Golden Ring47/100
Golden Ring was placed on debut at this track over 7f and showed some promise when seventh last time. Stepping up to 1m asks a new question, she is held up and produces her effort late, the yard has a strong 22% strike rate at Cork yet the jockey's 10% rate here is more modest, and she is unproven on yielding to soft.
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9Angel Invincible46/100
Angel Invincible is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and connections. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Cork from 22 runs while the jockey operates at 6% from 236 rides here, leaving her very much an unknown quantity.
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10Torvella45/100
Torvella has shown little in two starts, finishing ninth then fifth at this track last time. She is held up and produces her effort late, steps up to a mile which is an unknown, the trainer and jockey both operate at a modest 8% strike rate here from large samples, and she is unproven on yielding to soft.
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11Anymore44/100
Anymore is an Aidan O'Brien newcomer who fetched a useful sales price and carries the stable's second colours. The yard's strong 22% strike rate at Cork from a huge sample gives her a solid platform, though the jockey's modest 7% record at the track is the main negative.
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12State Of Clarity44/100
State Of Clarity is a newcomer from the Jessica Harrington yard which has a solid 10% strike rate at Cork from 888 runs. Seamie Heffernan posts a similar 9% from 683 rides here, and with low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
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13Tequila Belle43/100
Tequila Belle is a debutant with little known about her on the track. The yard has an 8% strike rate from 400 runs at Cork while the jockey is 6% from 17 rides here, so pedigree and sales background will have to carry the assessment given the low data confidence.
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14Cross Of Stars42/100
Cross Of Stars showed only modest form when sixth on debut over this trip. The yard has a modest 5% strike rate at Cork from a big sample and the jockey is similarly below average here at 7%, she is held up, unproven on yielding to soft, and with just one run on the clock this remains a watching brief.
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15Drumbinion Lass42/100
Drumbinion Lass is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Cork from a large sample while the jockey operates at 4% from 54 rides here, leaving any assessment very tentative.
KTB verdict
Captivating is the KTB Selection in a race where the top ratings are closely grouped and most of the field are debutants. The Aidan O'Brien filly benefits from a yard with a strong 22% strike rate at Cork, a capable 5 lb claimer in Jack Cleary who rides the track well, and a pedigree that looks suitable for the conditions. She can take advantage of the steadily-run pace shape by being handy. The main dangers are the next two in the KTB Fit order, Duchessofaquitaine and Gods Love, both well-connected newcomers from yards that know their way around Cork, while the placed experience of Golden Ring cannot be entirely dismissed despite the step up in trip.
KTB Selection Captivating
This is the narrative read of the 4:25 Cork. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Cork racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Cork results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Captivating the KTB Selection?
She represents Aidan O'Brien who has a 22% strike rate at Cork from 666 runs, is ridden by Jack Cleary who has an 18% strike rate at the track from 34 rides, and is by Dubawi whose progeny have an 18% overall win rate.
How is the race likely to be run?
It lacks a leader so is expected to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which runners are unproven on yielding to soft ground?
Lady Chancalot, Golden Ring, Torvella and Cross Of Stars have no runs on yielding to soft.
Which horses are noted as held up in running style?
Golden Ring, Torvella and Cross Of Stars are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which yard has the strongest strike rate at Cork among those represented?
P Twomey has a 33% strike rate at Cork from 107 runs.
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