4:35 Redcar
This Class 2 Marske Fabrications & Engineering Straight-mile Series Final Handicap at Redcar over 7f219y on good ground brings together a field of 14 with a strong pace expected. The KTB Fit Scores identify Classic Encounter as the clear top pick on 70, closely followed by Welbury on 69 and Rajapour on 67, while the remainder of the field sits in the mid-50s and below. Several runners step up in class from lower-grade wins, and course form at Redcar is a recurring positive for a number of the principals.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace is likely to be strong and could collapse late, favouring those delivered from off the pace. Classic Encounter, Welbury, Rajapour, Theoryofeverything and the majority of the field are hold-up types, while Double Parked and Poet's Dawn are the main pace influences. The key question is whether the leaders pay for their exertions in the straight, allowing the patient riders to capitalise in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Classic Encounter KTB Selection70/100
Classic Encounter is a fair performer who has won two of his three starts at this track and arrives in solid form with a string of placed efforts. He acts on good ground and has won twice at today's trip, though he steps back up in distance having last run over 7½f. The yard holds a strong 32% strike rate at Redcar from 44 runs. Pat Cosgrave takes the ride on the 5-year-old who is rated 88 and drawn in stall 7. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is ideally placed to benefit if the strong pace collapses. His recent form reads 761423 and he is the KTB Selection.
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2Welbury69/100
Welbury is a useful performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from just one visit. Recent form of 224110 shows consistency at a decent level with two wins in the last four starts, though he has been beaten in both outings since his latest success. Trainer Edward Bethell holds a solid 25% strike rate at Redcar while Oisin Orr is aboard. Rated 90 and drawn in stall 6, the 3-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. He has a 1-5 record on good ground with two further placed efforts and looks sure to go well if the race falls apart late.
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3Rajapour67/100
Rajapour is a fair handicapper who knows his way around Redcar, winning two of his four starts here. He has a solid record on good ground and has won six times at this trip, though he drops back from a slightly longer distance today. The yard's 15 percent strike-rate at the track from a large sample adds some confidence. Rated 85 from draw 14, the 6-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence. His recent form reads 1F5172 and he steps up in class having shown placed form at this level before.
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4Theoryofeverything56/100
Theoryofeverything is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent win sandwiched between some modest efforts. He has run just once at Redcar when finishing fifth and his record on good ground shows only one win from 13 starts though he has placed twice. The trip suits as he has three wins from 23 attempts at this distance while trainer David O'Meara has a solid 15% strike rate here from a large sample. Usually held up with high confidence, the 6-year-old is rated 89 and drawn in stall 10. Conor Whiteley takes the 5lb claim and his recent form is 458175.
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5Double Parked56/100
Double Parked is a fair performer who has won three times from seven starts at Redcar and also has a solid record at today's trip with two wins from nine attempts. He has shown mixed form this year with a recent string of 031506 and is now dropping back from 1m2½f, which poses a fresh question. The yard's modest 8% strike rate at the track is offset by the horse's own course connections and high data confidence from ratings and history. Rated 81 from draw 11, the 4-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace. He steps up in class but his three course wins give him a clear chance to make the running and potentially steal it if the strong pace does not fully unwind.
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6Wild Dahlia52/100
Wild Dahlia is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form this year without progressing. Dropping back to a trip she has won over should suit and the yard has a strong 25% strike-rate at Redcar. Stall one looks no disadvantage but she has only one previous run here when finishing third.
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7Harswell Ruby51/100
Harswell Ruby is a modest performer who has been a regular at this track and placed on her latest visit here. She has won over today's trip but her recent form has been ordinary and she is now 0-11 on good ground. The yard has a solid record at Redcar.
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8Nyman48/100
Nyman is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track without winning and has been competitive on good ground. He has placed twice at today's trip from ten attempts and brings solid recent form including a win earlier this season. The yard has a respectable 13% strike rate at Redcar from a large sample.
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9Law of Design47/100
Law of Design is a modest performer who has been competitive without winning lately, finishing placed on his only previous visit to Redcar and showing two placed efforts at today's trip. Ian Williams has a solid 19% strike rate here from 62 runs while the 3lb claimer adds value. Ground looks fine on the evidence of one placing from five runs on good.
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10Up The Jazz46/100
Up The Jazz is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year but has solid placed form here including a second on his most recent visit. He has won on good ground and at today's trip though his overall strike-rate is modest. Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey have a good 15% strike-rate at the track from 26 runs.
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11Poet's Dawn45/100
Poet’s Dawn is a modest 11-year-old who has won once in his last 13 starts and looks vulnerable at this level. He has shown little at Redcar in recent years and is now dropping back from 1m2f having already been well held over today’s trip on his most recent visit here. Trainer’s modest 8% strike rate at the track adds little encouragement.
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12Barley45/100
Barley is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and arrives off a recent win. He has run eight times at Redcar without winning but has placed once and the yard’s 8% strike-rate here from over 2,000 runs shows they know the place well. Good ground is fine and he has won at today’s trip though the big-field draw in stall 13 is far from ideal.
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13Shadow Run36/100
Shadow Run is a modest performer who has failed to win in ten starts and looks exposed at this level. Has run just once here when finishing ninth and is also without a placing in three runs on good ground. Trainer holds a solid 12% strike rate at Redcar but the horse has looked limited at this trip on both attempts.
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14Mount King34/100
Mount King is a modest performer who has been a regular at this track without ever winning or placing in six runs. He has won at today’s trip but his record on good ground is only moderate and the wide draw in stall 12 is another negative. Trainer Tim Easterby has an 8% strike rate from over 2,000 runs here while Amie Waugh is 0-11 at the track.
KTB verdict
Classic Encounter stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair performer with two wins from three starts at Redcar, he arrives in solid form, acts on good ground, and is ideally suited by the strong pace that is forecast given his held-up run style. The yard’s 32% strike rate at the track from 44 runs adds considerable confidence. His main dangers are likely to be Welbury, who has already won over course and distance and is drawn to track the pace, and Rajapour, who knows the track well with two wins from four starts here and a strong record at the trip. Theoryofeverything and Double Parked are the other principals who could feature if the race develops as anticipated.
KTB Selection Classic Encounter
This is the narrative read of the 4:35 Redcar. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Redcar racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Redcar results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Classic Encounter, Welbury, Rajapour and Theoryofeverything are all usually held up and produce their effort late, so they are well placed if the strong pace collapses.
How many wins has Classic Encounter recorded at Redcar?
Two wins from three starts at this track.
What is the trainer strike rate at Redcar for the yard of the top two in the KTB Fit Scores?
George Boughey has a 32% strike rate at Redcar from 44 runs while Edward Bethell has a 25% strike rate from 102 runs.
Which runners are the main front-runners in this field?
Double Parked tends to make the running or race on the pace, and Poet's Dawn is also a front-runner with high confidence.
How many course wins does Rajapour have at Redcar?
Two wins from four starts here.
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