4:47 Nottingham
This Class 5 handicap division at Nottingham over 1m75y on good to soft ground features a field of nine three-year-olds where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top. Lillie Margot heads the numbers on 59 with Fickle McSelfish close behind on 57, while Napolian and Vega's Virtue sit on 53 and 52 respectively. The overall picture is one of modest performers, several of whom are dropping in class or stepping back in trip, with the strong pace anticipated adding an extra layer of intrigue to how the race unfolds.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners declared the pace shape is strongly positive and confidence is high that it will be on the quick side. Lillie Margot, Fickle McSelfish and Trinculo all tend to make the running or race prominently, which sets up the strong likelihood of an early burn-up. That in turn should play into the hands of the hold-up horses such as Napolian, Vega's Virtue and Ice Cube. The key question is whether the leaders fold late enough to allow the closers a clear run at the line.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Lillie Margot KTB Selection59/100
Lillie Margot is a modest performer who has already shown her liking for this venue by winning here from just two runs. She scored over this trip earlier in the season and is dropping in class, factors that bring her right into the reckoning. Recent efforts have been mixed, however, and she has failed to place in either start on good to soft ground. The yard posts a 9% strike rate at Nottingham from 82 runs and the trainer-jockey combination shows an 11% record together. Jack Garritty knows the track well with a 13% strike rate from 82 rides, yet the filly's tendency to make the running could leave her vulnerable if the pace collapses as expected.
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2Fickle McSelfish57/100
Fickle McSelfish is another modest sort who has displayed a fair level of consistency this season with form figures of 451329. He has placed on good to soft ground and over today's trip, although he is yet to win at either distance or surface. This will be his first run at Nottingham, where his trainer holds a 50% strike rate from a small sample of four runs. Tom Marquand takes the mount and brings a solid 13% strike rate at the track from 221 rides. His high-confidence front-running style means he is sure to be prominent in a race where the pace is forecast to be strong, which could test his resolve late on.
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3Napolian53/100
Napolian is a modest performer who has remained consistent enough without adding to his success in a 1m handicap last year. He steps back up in trip today after a string of ordinary efforts over 7f and his record on good to soft is modest, with no placed finishes from two starts. Oisin Murphy is an eye-catching booking given his 19% strike rate at Nottingham from 206 rides, yet the yard's 10% strike rate at the track from 172 runs offers no particular edge. Usually held up with high confidence, he is the type to benefit if the strong pace collapses late and the race is run to suit closers.
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4Vega's Virtue52/100
Vega's Virtue is a modest performer who has been busy this year and produced a mixed bag of results. He has won three times at this trip from six attempts, underlining his effectiveness over the distance. Only one run on good to soft ground brought no joy, however, and he has no course form on record. Both trainer and jockey operate at a 9% strike rate at Nottingham, the yard from a large sample of 622 runs. A hold-up performer with high confidence, he should be suited by the anticipated strong pace and is likely to be produced late with a chance if the front-runners pay for their exertions.
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5Ice Cube51/100
Ice Cube is a modest performer who has won twice this year but has been in and out of form. He has placed at this trip without winning and the yard and jockey both have solid strike rates at Nottingham. Lightly raced on good to soft with no win or place from two starts, his hold-up style should be favoured by the strong pace.
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6Shadow Run48/100
Shadow Run is a modest performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and looks exposed after 11 runs. The trainer has a solid 10% strike-rate at Nottingham from a big sample but the horse is unproven on good to soft, has failed to place in two previous attempts at this trip and is dropping in class. Stall one might help his hold-up run-style yet there are too many question marks.
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7Trinculo47/100
Trinculo is a modest performer who has shown his best form when placed in two of his three starts at this trip. Recent efforts have been poor though and he needs to bounce back while dropping in class. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Nottingham from 132 runs and his front-running style will see him involved early in what is set to be a strong pace.
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8Blue Hill41/100
Blue Hill is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in four starts, finishing no better than fifth. He steps up in class and drops back from 1m4f to 1m today which poses a fresh question, though he has already tried this trip once without success. The trainer has only one run at Nottingham so that remains an unknown and he races prominently.
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9Far Far Out36/100
Far Far Out is a limited performer who has failed to build on an encouraging debut and now arrives on the back of two heavy defeats. Dropping back to 1m looks a reasonable move but he has already been tried at the trip without success. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Nottingham adds little encouragement and he typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Lillie Margot is the KTB Selection and arrives with the best Fit rating in a race full of modest performers. She has already won over this trip and at Nottingham, is dropping in class and her front-running style will ensure she is prominent early. The main dangers are those who can pick up the pieces if the strong pace collapses, with hold-up performers Napolian and Vega's Virtue best placed to capitalise. Fickle McSelfish is another who will be on the speed and cannot be dismissed given his consistency and the booking of Tom Marquand.
KTB Selection Lillie Margot
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:07 UTC, 14 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Lillie Margot | 3/1 | LiveScore Bet |
| Fickle McSelfish | 12/1 | LiveScore Bet |
| Napolian | 15/2 | LiveScore Bet |
| Vega's Virtue | 6/1 | LiveScore Bet |
| Ice Cube | 9/4 | Midnite |
| Shadow Run | 13/2 | LiveScore Bet |
| Trinculo | 9/1 | Midnite |
| Blue Hill | 6/1 | LiveScore Bet |
| Far Far Out | 80/1 | LiveScore Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 4:47 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Nottingham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over course and distance?
Lillie Margot has won over this trip earlier in the season and has already scored at Nottingham from two runs here.
How many front-runners are likely to ensure a strong pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners are declared and the pace looks strong and could collapse late.
Which runners are suited by the strong pace shape?
Hold-up horses such as Napolian, Vega's Virtue and Ice Cube should be favoured if the pace collapses late.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Nottingham for the yard of the selection?
The yard records a 9 percent strike rate at the track from 82 runs.
Which jockey has the highest strike rate at the track among those riding in this race?
Oisin Murphy has a 19% strike rate at Nottingham from 206 rides.
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