3:39 Nottingham
This Class 4 Colwick Cup Handicap over 2m at Nottingham on good to soft ground brings together an 11-runner field where stamina and tactical positioning will be key. The KTB Fit scores point to a competitive but not overly deep race, headed by Believitanducan on 61, with Call My Bluff close behind on 59 and a cluster around the 50 mark. Most of the principals are proven or at least placed at the trip or on the surface, though several face unproven elements such as a step up in distance or a drop in class.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy could pay dividends. With the vast majority of the field, including all five principals, declared as held-up types who produce their effort late, the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace. The key question will be whether any horse can get into a rhythm early enough to take advantage when the tempo lifts inside the final three furlongs, or whether the prominent-running Zimmerman can steal an uncontested position.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Believitanducan KTB Selection61/100
Believitanducan arrives as a fair performer who has won five of his eight starts at this trip and looks well suited by the distance again. He has already shown he handles good to soft ground with a win and two places from three starts, though his sole run here resulted in a modest fifth. Alan King has a 10% strike rate at Nottingham from 189 runs while William Buick takes the ride, the pair combining for a 12/34 record with an A/E of 1.77. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be well suited by a steadily-run race. Recent form of 2-1113 underlines his competitiveness at this level off an OR of 87.
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2Call My Bluff59/100
Call My Bluff is a fair performer who has won over this trip five times from 15 starts and looks suited by the return to 2m. He has won here from three visits to Nottingham and is 1-4 on good to soft ground with three placings. The yard operates at a 7% strike rate at the track while Callum Shepherd has a solid 16% record from 101 rides here, their combined figures reading 4/41 with an A/E of 1.12. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a steadily-run affair. Recent form of -91050 is mixed but the course-and-distance profile remains a positive off an OR of 80.
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3Personal Best51/100
Personal Best is a fair performer who has been consistent this year and arrives in solid form after a string of placed efforts. He has been placed both starts at Nottingham and is proven on good to soft ground, though he remains winless at this trip despite two placed runs over it. Dropping in class today, the step up from 1m6f asks a fresh question while the yard's modest 6% strike rate at the track from 145 runs is another negative. Usually held up with medium confidence, he should be produced late in a tactical race. Rob Hornby rides, the pair showing a 101/983 record with an A/E of 0.90, and his OR is 82.
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4Dunkeld Dreamer51/100
Dunkeld Dreamer is a fair performer who has been placed on both previous visits to Nottingham and has shown he handles good to soft ground. Steps up markedly in trip today having spent most of his 21 runs over shorter, so stamina is an unknown. Trainer K R Burke operates at a solid 12% strike rate here from 448 runs while Clifford Lee is 13% from 149 rides at the track, their combined record reading 407/2546 with an A/E of 0.92. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be delivered late. Recent form of 140372 shows glimpses of ability off an OR of 79.
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5Rock N Roll Pinkie50/100
Rock N Roll Pinkie is a fair performer who has won three times here from 11 runs and also holds a solid record on good to soft ground with three wins from seven starts. He drops back to 2m today having won twice at the trip in the past yet his recent form of 455975 shows he is not in the best of heart at present. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate from 107 runs at Nottingham, the pair with Hector Crouch showing 3/18 with an A/E of 1.37. Usually held up with medium confidence, he will be waited with in a steadily-run race. His course record and going profile remain assets off an OR of 76.
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6Green Falcon46/100
Green Falcon is a modest performer who has shown some consistency but no real spark in recent runs. He steps up to an untested 2m today which asks a fresh question of his stamina while the yard and Saffie Osborne both have solid records at Nottingham. Placed once from two starts on good to soft so the ground should be fine though he remains vulnerable in this company off an OR of 72.
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7Sharp Move46/100
Sharp Move is a fair performer who showed his best effort when third last time out over 1m6f. He steps up in trip to 2m today which is an unknown. Haggas has a solid 19% strike rate at Nottingham from 390 runs while Marquand is 13% from 221 rides here. Recent form of 1-8873 gives some hope but both trip and surface are unproven.
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8Zimmerman44/100
Zimmerman is a modest performer who has won three times this year yet looks vulnerable dropped in class off his current mark. He acts on good to soft, has scored at this trip, and the yard and jockey both hold steady rather than strong records at Nottingham. Course form is limited to a single sixth on his only previous visit and he is the only prominent runner in the field.
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9Trojan Sun43/100
Trojan Sun is a modest performer who has been consistent in recent months without winning. He showed his only visit to Nottingham was a winning one and steps up to a trip he has scored over twice before. The yard's modest strike-rate here tempers enthusiasm and he is another held-up type off an OR of 71.
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10It's All About You41/100
It's All About You is a modest performer with a solid recent record of two wins from his last eight starts at this trip. He acts on good to soft ground and has shown enough placed form on it to suggest the surface will suit. First time at Nottingham for both horse and trainer leaves that side of things unproven though the jockey has a respectable 14% strike rate here and he steps up in class.
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11Neptunes Staircase36/100
Neptunes Staircase is a fair performer on his best days but has been well below that level in three starts this year. He steps up markedly in trip today with no prior experience of good to soft ground, so both stamina and surface are unknowns. Trainer has only one run at Nottingham which is too small a sample to judge.
KTB verdict
Believitanducan is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with five wins from eight starts at this trip, he is well suited by the distance, has already shown he handles good to soft ground, and benefits from the booking of William Buick for a yard that has struck at a 35% rate when teaming up with the jockey. Usually held up, he is expected to come from off the pace in a steadily-run tactical race. The main dangers are Call My Bluff, who has a strong course record and looks suited by the return to 2m, and Personal Best, who is consistent, placed both times at Nottingham and drops in class, though the step up in trip introduces a question mark. Dunkeld Dreamer and Rock N Roll Pinkie round out the principals with place claims on their Nottingham form.
KTB Selection Believitanducan
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:10 UTC, 14 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Rock N Roll Pinkie | 13/2 | Midnite |
| Green Falcon | 9/2 | BetTom |
| It's All About You | 28/1 | Midnite |
This is the narrative read of the 3:39 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Nottingham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven at both course and distance?
None of the runners combine a course win with a 2m victory in the supplied data, though Call My Bluff and Rock N Roll Pinkie have each won at Nottingham and over this trip separately.
How many of the principals are held-up runners?
All five principals are described as held up, with high or medium confidence in their run-style.
Which horse is the only prominent runner in the field?
Zimmerman is the only horse whose run-style is listed as prominent.
Who has the strongest trainer-jockey combination record in the race?
Alan King and William Buick show 12/34 (35%) with an A/E of 1.77 and +£44.08 LSP.
Which runner has the best recent form figures among the principals?
Believitanducan has the strongest recent form figures of 2-1113.
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