5:05 Killarney
This 5:05 maiden at Killarney over 1m3f50y on yielding-to-soft ground brings together a field of ten with limited previous exposure to the trip and the surface. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by the selection on 64, with the next four principals between 50 and 52, underlining how open the race looks on paper. Most of the runners are unproven on the ground and several are stepping up or down markedly in distance, so the ability to handle the conditions will be key.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two confirmed front-runners present and the overall pace shape rated as strong with high confidence. Navy Guitar and Blue Nasturtium both tend to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure an honest gallop that has the potential to collapse in the closing stages. That scenario would play to the strengths of the hold-up performers, several of whom are among the principals, and the key question is which of the patiently ridden horses can pick up the pieces when the leaders tire.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Tears I Nevercried KTB Selection64/100
Tears I Nevercried has shown very little in two starts so far and remains hard to assess with any confidence. The trainer holds a solid 17% strike rate at Killarney from a small sample while the jockey operates at a modest 8% here from 25 rides. Dropping back in trip poses a fresh question for this lightly raced 4-year-old. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the horse could be suited by the strong pace that is likely to materialise. Unproven on yielding-to-soft ground and with no course form, the 4-year-old from draw 8 will need to improve markedly on the bare form of 06 to figure.
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2Footstepstoglory52/100
Footstepstoglory won on his only previous visit to Killarney and arrives off a modest recent run of 960. He drops back sharply in trip from 2m1f to an untried 1m3f while wearing first-time headgear, and he has no experience on yielding-to-soft ground. The trainer holds a solid 9% strike rate here from 95 runs while the jockey is operating at 7% from 201 rides. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, the 5-year-old should relish the strong pace on offer. From draw 4 the horse remains difficult to assess but the previous course success provides a positive note in an open maiden.
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3Navy Guitar51/100
Navy Guitar arrives off the back of two modest efforts and steps up in trip as a fresh question today. The yard has only one run at Killarney so far while the jockey has none recorded here, and the horse remains unproven on yielding to soft ground. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, the 7-year-old is likely to be prominent early in what is expected to be a strong gallop. With just 15 career starts and low data confidence this remains a lightly-raced profile that needs treating with caution. From draw 9 the front-running 7-year-old may set the race up for others if the pace collapses late.
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4Blue Nasturtium51/100
Blue Nasturtium has shown modest form in three starts with a best effort of third last time. The step up in trip is an unknown and the lightly raced profile means the going remains untested too. The yard and jockey both have established but below-average records at Killarney. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, the 4-year-old is set to be forward in a race with a strong pace shape. From draw 5 the OR 70 performer could help force the pace but may be vulnerable once the hold-up horses are produced.
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5Joe Cool50/100
Joe Cool is a modest performer who has been placed twice this season but has finished well beaten on his last two starts. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 7f, though he has been placed over this distance before. First-time headgear is tried while both trainer and jockey have modest records at Killarney. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, the 4-year-old should be suited by the anticipated strong pace. From draw 10 the OR 72 performer brings the highest official rating in the field but needs to bounce back from recent poor efforts.
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6Ballybawn Belter49/100
Ballybawn Belter has shown some competitiveness on yielding to soft ground with a place from three runs but finished only eighth on his sole visit to Killarney. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of an eight-year-old with 29 career runs. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, the horse could be favoured by a strong pace.
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7Shemiyka48/100
Shemiyka is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts this year after a break. She drops back in trip to a distance she has never tried which asks a fresh question. Usually held up and producing its effort late with medium confidence, the OR 71 4-year-old has placed on yielding-to-soft ground but remains vulnerable.
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8Guitar Star44/100
Guitar Star has only one run in the last year so any assessment is tentative. The yard has a poor 0% strike-rate from 15 runs at Killarney while the jockey manages a modest 8% from 76 rides here. First-time headgear is tried as the horse drops back sharply in trip to a distance he has never raced over.
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9Nogs44/100
Nogs is a debutant so the only pointers come from his pedigree and the yard's modest record here. The trainer has a 3% strike rate from 35 runs at Killarney while jockey Killian Leonard fares slightly better with a 5% strike rate from 82 rides. With low data confidence this one has to be treated as very much unknown quantity.
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10Enchanted Lady42/100
Enchanted Lady is a modest performer who has shown little spark in seven runs this year and looks vulnerable from stall 2. The trainer holds a solid 13% strike rate at Killarney yet the jockey is operating at a poor 3% here from 92 rides. Stepping up in trip for the first time asks a fresh question of a horse whose going suitability remains unknown from a small sample.
KTB verdict
Tears I Nevercried is the KTB Selection. Although the 4-year-old has shown very little in two starts and remains hard to assess, the trainer's solid record at Killarney from limited runners and the horse's hold-up style could prove well suited to a race expected to be run at a strong pace that may collapse late. The lightly raced profile offers scope for improvement dropped back in trip. Main dangers are Footstepstoglory, who has a previous course win to his name, and Joe Cool, who brings the highest official rating and has placed over the distance before. Navy Guitar may make the running but looks vulnerable stepped up in trip, while Blue Nasturtium could help force the pace yet is unproven on the ground.
KTB Selection Tears I Nevercried
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 5 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Tears I Nevercried | 40/1 | BetTom |
| Footstepstoglory | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Navy Guitar | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Blue Nasturtium | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Joe Cool | 3/1 | Bet Victor |
| Ballybawn Belter | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Shemiyka | 11/2 | Bet Victor |
| Guitar Star | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Nogs | 40/1 | BetTom |
| Enchanted Lady | 12/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 Killarney. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Killarney racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Killarney results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the early pace?
Navy Guitar and Blue Nasturtium both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Who is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit Score?
Tears I Nevercried with a KTB Fit Score of 64/100.
How many runners have previous experience on yielding-to-soft ground?
Only Ballybawn Belter and Shemiyka have placed on yielding to soft; the remainder are unproven on the surface.
Which horses are wearing headgear for the first time?
Footstepstoglory, Joe Cool and Guitar Star are all fitted with first-time headgear.
What does the pace shape suggest for hold-up horses?
The strong pace with two or more habitual front-runners is likely to collapse late, favouring hold-up horses.
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