5:07 Punchestown
This 5:07 Punchestown William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (Division II) brings an 18-runner field together over 2m4f on good ground. The KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive but not impossible contest, with the top two horses separated by just a single point and several others clustered in the low-to-mid 50s. Las Brisas Boy heads the KTB order on 61/100 as the selection, while recent form across the field is patchy and many runners arrive with questions to answer on trip, ground or consistency.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Dunany Point is the most likely to take up that role from the front, while Las Brisas Boy tends to race prominently and could sit close to that pace. The majority of the field, including Bearami Creek, King Of The Greys, Datzdjazz and most of the others, are held-up types who will be asked to come from off the pace. The key question is whether the clear leader can dictate matters throughout or if the prominent runners can apply enough pressure to prevent an easy time up front.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Las Brisas Boy KTB Selection61/100
Las Brisas Boy is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning. He has run twice at Punchestown without placing and drops back from 3m today having been competitive on good ground. The trainer holds a 15% strike rate from 13 runs here while the jockey is 11% from 9 rides. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he could be well placed to track the expected lone leader. His recent form figures of 592266 reflect steady placed efforts at the right distance, and with an official rating of 87 he looks competitively weighted on his best days.
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2Bearami Creek60/100
Bearami Creek is a useful performer who ran respectably when fifth over course and distance on his only previous visit here. Recent form has been patchy with a pulled-up effort and a poor run last time out, though the step up in trip today asks a fresh question that could suit. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Punchestown is offset by the jockey's strong 8% record from a small sample of rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be aiming to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time. With an official rating of 95 he has the class to be involved if the trip brings about improvement.
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3King Of The Greys55/100
King Of The Greys is a useful performer on his day but has been pulled up on his last three starts and the recent form makes grim reading. He steps up in trip today having failed to complete the course over shorter on his most recent outing. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Punchestown is a negative. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to find some spark from off the pace if he is to figure. His official rating of 98 gives him plenty of weight to carry in a race where consistency is at a premium.
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4Datzdjazz54/100
Datzdjazz is a useful performer on the balance of his three starts to date though he was well held in a pair of handicaps after a promising debut. He steps up in trip now having not been asked the question over 2m4f before. The yard has a solid 8% strike rate here from a big sample while the jockey operates at 5%. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be coming from the rear in a contest that looks likely to be run at a steady pace up front. At four years old and rated 92 he remains relatively unexposed and could improve for the extra distance.
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5Dunany Point53/100
Dunany Point is a fair performer who has shown bits of ability on his better days but has been inconsistent of late with a string of pulled-ups. He has run just once at Punchestown and finished sixth, while the trainer remains winless from ten runs at the track. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance in the past. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he is the most obvious candidate to take the expected uncontested lead. With an official rating of 85 and a placed record of five from 12 on good ground he could prove hard to peg back if allowed to dictate.
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6Trixaboutmaisie53/100
Trixaboutmaisie is a fair performer who has struggled to make an impact in five runs so far, finishing down the field on each start including two poor efforts this season. She drops back from 3m to 2m4f today having failed to show much at either trip. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate from 112 runs at Punchestown while the jockey is 1-14 here.
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7Gatehouse Boy51/100
Gatehouse Boy is useful on his day but has been largely out of form since landing a win on good ground two years ago. Only tenth on his sole run here and the yard's modest 4% strike-rate at Punchestown offers little encouragement. He steps up in trip today while the 7 lb claimer is still seeking a first course winner from 11 rides.
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8G N Jefferson51/100
G N Jefferson is a useful performer who has shown some ability on his last two starts, finishing third at this trip last time out. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate from 217 runs at Punchestown is a negative, though the jockey has a solid 6% from 54 rides here. The trip looks suitable on the placed effort, but the going remains an unknown with only five career runs.
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9No Big Deal50/100
No Big Deal is a useful performer who has shown some competitiveness on good ground with two places from four starts. He has a placed effort at this trip but his overall profile is patchy and he was well held on his only previous run at Punchestown. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate here adds little confidence.
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10You Done Well50/100
You Done Well is a useful performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately, placing in three of his last four completed starts. He has run just once at Punchestown and steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in five previous attempts at this distance. The trainer has only a single runner here so far while Jack Kennedy brings solid course experience with a 15 percent strike rate from nearly 500 rides.
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11Tuckmill49/100
Tuckmill is a useful performer on his day with solid ratings and race history behind him, yet he has failed to win or place in five runs at Punchestown. The yard's modest 6% strike rate from 232 runs at the track adds a further negative, while the 7 lb claimer has only four rides here which is too small a sample to judge. He steps up in trip today having shown no success in six previous attempts at this distance, though he does have a win and three places from eleven runs on good ground.
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12Me Wee Nanny Fran45/100
Me Wee Nanny Fran is a fair performer who has struggled badly so far, pulling up on her last two starts and showing little promise in five runs. She steps up to 2m4f for the first time today while wearing first-time headgear. The trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at Punchestown from a big sample while the jockey is operating at 5%.
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13Soldier Saint43/100
Soldier Saint is a fair performer who has shown only modest form this season with a string of mid-pack finishes. He has run just once at Punchestown and finished well beaten, while both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at the track. Dropping back in trip today raises a fresh question and his record on good ground is competitive but winless.
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14Hidalgo Des Mottes42/100
Hidalgo Des Mottes is a fair performer who has placed at this trip and on this ground without winning. He has been placed once from three runs at Punchestown and holds solid course connections, though the trainer's 3% strike rate from 188 runs here is modest. The 7 lb claimer is hard to assess with only two rides at the track.
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15Leo Messy40/100
Leo Messy is a fair performer who showed some encouragement when third at this track last time. He steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous tries at this distance. The yard and jockey both have modest records here.
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16How Decc37/100
How Decc is a fair performer who has been placed at this trip without winning. He has never scored on good ground from five attempts and now makes his Punchestown debut. Trainer and jockey both operate at modest strike rates here.
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17The Border Boy36/100
The Border Boy is a modest performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and finished well down the field on all three previous visits to this track. The step up to 2m4f asks a fresh question having failed to make the frame in six previous attempts at the trip and his record on good ground is only modest. Trainer and jockey both operate at a low strike rate here.
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18Mount Hotham35/100
Mount Hotham is a modest performer who has been out of the frame in all five starts this year and looks vulnerable again from his current mark. The trainer has a modest 5% strike-rate at Punchestown from 312 runs while the jockey is even quieter at 3% from 39 rides here. He steps up in trip for the first time today and is unproven on good ground.
KTB verdict
Las Brisas Boy is the KTB Selection. A fair performer with consistent placed form at this trip, he drops back from 3m having been competitive on good ground and could be ideally positioned racing prominently behind the expected lone leader. The trainer's strong 15% strike rate at Punchestown from a small sample and the jockey's solid record at the track add further positives. His main dangers are Bearami Creek, who showed respectable course and distance form on his only previous visit and now steps up in trip, and Dunany Point, who could take the uncontested lead and prove hard to catch if allowed an easy time in front. King Of The Greys and Datzdjazz also have ability on their best days but come with more questions attached.
KTB Selection Las Brisas Boy
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 13 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Las Brisas Boy | 11/2 | BetTom |
| Bearami Creek | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| King Of The Greys | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Datzdjazz | 22/1 | BetTom |
| Dunany Point | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Trixaboutmaisie | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Gatehouse Boy | 16/1 | Bet Victor |
| G N Jefferson | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| No Big Deal | 7/2 | BetTom |
| You Done Well | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Tuckmill | 9/1 | BetTom |
| Me Wee Nanny Fran | 50/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Soldier Saint | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Hidalgo Des Mottes | 12/1 | BetTom |
| Leo Messy | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| How Decc | 50/1 | Dragon Bet |
| The Border Boy | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Mount Hotham | 33/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 5:07 Punchestown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Punchestown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Punchestown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Punchestown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Dunany Point, who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many times has Las Brisas Boy run at Punchestown?
Twice, finishing fifth and twelfth with no win or place.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Punchestown for the yard of the KTB Selection?
15% from 13 runs.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Me Wee Nanny Fran.
Has Bearami Creek run over course and distance before?
Yes, finishing a respectable fifth on his only previous visit here.
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