5:42 Wolverhampton (AW)
This Class 4 EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes over 7f at Wolverhampton brings together a dozen two-year-olds with limited experience and modest official ratings. The KTB numbers point to a race where the principals are closely matched on Fit scores between 55 and 48, with very little to choose between several at this level on standard going. Bal Harbour heads the KTB rankings and is the clear selection, while the likes of Tom Thumb, Al Wasl Spirit and Reichenbach Falls are all in the mix on their best efforts.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as tentative with medium confidence, suggesting a possible front-runner but on thin evidence. Tidal Force has shown early speed in its limited outings and could try to make the running from stall 12, while Reichenbach Falls and Aljoon are noted as prominent types who like to race handily. Most of the field, including the selection Bal Harbour, Tom Thumb, Reviens Demain, Nil Satis Supreme, Solar Mission, Pigeon Pete and Cruzcampo Cai, tend to be held up and produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the early pace will be sufficient to stretch the race or if it will turn into a sprint for the line from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Bal Harbour KTB Selection55/100
Bal Harbour tops the KTB Fit ratings at 55 and is the selection in a race where the principals are tightly grouped. A 2-year-old by Supremacy, he has no course win on record and is unproven at Wolverhampton, yet the trainer Jack Morland holds a 17% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.28 from 42 runs. Jason Watson takes the ride and brings a solid 15% strike rate at Wolverhampton with an A/E of 1.01 from 411 rides. The going is Standard and the sire has a 9% overall win rate from 511 runners. Drawn in stall 6, he is expected to be held up in a race with a tentative pace shape.
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2Tom Thumb53/100
Tom Thumb is rated 53 on KTB Fit and comes into this having shown some promise despite finishing 89 in its two starts. The Billy Aprahamian yard has a striking 100% record at Wolverhampton from one run with an A/E of 34. Shay Farmer claims 5lb and the combination will be interesting even though the jockey is 0% from nine rides at the track with an A/E of 0. The colt has had one run on standard going without placing. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he should be coming from off the pace in a race where the front end may not be strongly contested.
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3Al Wasl Spirit50/100
Al Wasl Spirit sits on a KTB Fit of 50 and represents the George Scott yard, which has a 16% strike rate at Wolverhampton with an A/E of 0.95 from 218 runs. Daniel Muscutt is in the saddle and the trainer-jockey combination shows 22 wins from 151 rides for a 15% strike rate and A/E of 0.86. By Alson, who has a 10% win rate from 30 runners, the colt has no course win on record but is drawn in stall 7. He should be suited by the standard going and is likely to be held up with the tentative pace in mind.
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4Reichenbach Falls49/100
Reichenbach Falls has a KTB Fit score of 49 and brings placed form with a 3 on his sole start. Stuart Williams trains and has a 15% strike rate at Wolverhampton with an A/E of 0.91 from 930 runs, while Marco Ghiani rides with a 13% strike rate and A/E of 0.81 from 472 rides at the venue. The trainer-jockey partnership is 15% from 877 rides with an A/E of 0.98. Usually prominent and racing handily on or close to the lead, though with limited evidence, he is unproven on standard ground. Drawn in stall 9, he could be one of the more forward-going types in a race with only tentative pace.
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5Reviens Demain48/100
Reviens Demain is rated 48 on KTB Fit after finishing eighth on his only start. The Jonathan Portman yard has a 10% strike rate at Wolverhampton with an A/E of 0.94 from 399 runs, and the trainer-jockey record with Pierre-Louis Jamin is 7% from 43 rides with an A/E of 1.03. The jockey himself is 7% at the track with an A/E of 0.64 from 183 rides. Having had one run on standard going without placing, he is expected to be held up and come from off the pace. Drawn widest in stall 11, he will need the race to fall right given the tentative pace shape.
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6Tidal Force48/100
Tidal Force has a KTB Fit of 48 and is dropping in class after finishing 96 in its two starts. Hugo Palmer trains with a 19% strike rate at Wolverhampton and an A/E of 1 from 420 runs; Robert Havlin rides with a 13% strike rate and A/E of 0.88 from 1289 rides. The trainer-jockey record is 6% from 33 rides with an A/E of 0.52. A front-runner on limited evidence, he is unproven on standard ground and drawn in stall 12.
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7Aljoon47/100
Aljoon is rated 47 on KTB Fit and arrives with placed form shown by figures of 023. Jack Jones has a 13% strike rate at Wolverhampton with an A/E of 0.82 from 139 runs; Luke Morris rides with a 12% strike rate and A/E of 0.86 from 4591 rides. The trainer-jockey record is 16% from 19 rides with an A/E of 0.95. Usually prominent on limited evidence, he has been placed once from one run on standard ground.
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8Beningbrough Hall47/100
Beningbrough Hall has a KTB Fit of 47. David Simcock trains with a 14% strike rate at Wolverhampton and an A/E of 0.85 from 938 runs; Callum Shepherd rides with a 12% strike rate and A/E of 0.92 from 816 rides. The trainer-jockey record is 15% from 455 rides with an A/E of 0.98. By Eqtidaar, who has an 8% win rate from 424 runners, he has no course win on record.
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9Nil Satis Supreme46/100
Nil Satis Supreme is rated 46 on KTB Fit after finishing eighth on debut. Mark Loughnane trains with a 10% strike rate at Wolverhampton and an A/E of 0.85 from 1884 runs; Jack Callan rides with a 16% strike rate and A/E of 1 from 73 rides. The trainer-jockey record is 6% from 17 rides with an A/E of 0.58. Stepping up in class and usually held up on limited evidence, he has one run here when eighth on standard ground.
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10Solar Mission46/100
Solar Mission has a KTB Fit of 46 after two runs that read 08. Georgina Nicholls trains with a 13% strike rate at Wolverhampton and an A/E of 1.12 from 32 runs; William Cox rides with a 3% strike rate and A/E of 0.51 from 380 rides. The trainer-jockey record is 8% from 40 rides with an A/E of 1.10. Dropping in class and usually held up on limited evidence, he has one run here when tenth on standard ground.
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11Pigeon Pete45/100
Pigeon Pete is rated 45 on KTB Fit and has shown promise with a second on debut. Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero train with a 7% strike rate at Wolverhampton and an A/E of 0.8 from 43 runs; David Nolan rides with a 10% strike rate and A/E of 0.87 from 594 rides. Usually held up on limited evidence, he is unproven on standard ground.
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12Cruzcampo Cai44/100
Cruzcampo Cai has a KTB Fit of 44 after two runs that read 06. Max Young trains with a 1% strike rate at Wolverhampton and an A/E of 0.51 from 80 runs; Gina Mangan rides with an 8% strike rate and A/E of 1.03 from 312 rides. Stepping up in class and usually held up on limited evidence, he has one run here when sixth on standard ground.
KTB verdict
Bal Harbour is the KTB Selection and tops the Fit ratings in a race where several of the principals are closely matched. His trainer’s record at the track and the jockey’s experience at Wolverhampton give him a solid platform, and he is expected to be well placed from his draw in a contest with only tentative pace on offer. The main dangers are Tom Thumb, who brings strong trainer figures at the venue despite limited experience, and Reichenbach Falls, who has shown placed form and could be forward enough to take advantage of any lack of early speed. Al Wasl Spirit and Reviens Demain are next in the KTB order and cannot be ruled out if the race develops to suit their styles.
KTB Selection Bal Harbour
This is the narrative read of the 5:42 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Wolverhampton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Wolverhampton according to the KTB data?
Tom Thumb’s trainer Billy Aprahamian has a 100% strike rate at Wolverhampton with an A/E of 34 from one run.
How many of the principals are noted as usually held up?
Three of the top five principals – Tom Thumb, Reviens Demain and implicitly Bal Harbour – are described as held up types.
Which horse is the only one with a placed effort on standard ground in the field?
Aljoon has been placed once from one run on standard ground.
Who are the most forward run-style horses in the race?
Tidal Force is a front-runner on limited evidence, while Reichenbach Falls and Aljoon are prominent types.
What is the KTB Fit score of the selection Bal Harbour?
Bal Harbour has a KTB Fit score of 55.
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