7:00 Wolverhampton (AW)
This Class 6 handicap over 1m142y at Wolverhampton on standard ground features a field of 13 limited performers where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top. The selection Mr Fustic heads the numbers with a 60 rating, just ahead of R P McMurphy on 58, while the remainder sit between 51 and 38. With no obvious front-runner the race is set to be tactical, and course form, standard-ground experience and proven stamina at the trip are likely to prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy or timing a late run effectively will pay. Most of the field, including the top five, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question is whether any horse can quicken decisively off a modest gallop or whether the race will fall to one that gets a dream run from off the pace. Draw and the ability to handle the Wolverhampton surface without over-racing will also matter in a race where positioning is likely to be more important than pure speed.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Mr Fustic KTB Selection60/100
Mr Fustic is a limited-class performer who has won twice at Wolverhampton from six runs and has shown he handles the standard surface with four wins from 23 attempts. He steps back up to a trip over which he has won twice from five starts, though his recent form has been patchy. Trainer Andi Brown posts an 18% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 44 runs while Marco Ghiani takes the ride; the pair have a 0/7 record together. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 10 and arrives off recent figures of -31450. The eight-year-old has won here before and looks to have conditions in his favour.
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2R P McMurphy58/100
R P McMurphy is a limited performer who has won twice here from seven runs and also has two wins from six at today's trip. He steps up from 7f today, which looks a fair question given his record at the longer distance. Michael Appleby has an 11% strike rate at the track from a huge sample of 1862 runs, matched by Oisin Murphy's own modest record here. The four-year-old is another who is usually held up and produces his effort late; recent form reads 318034. He has course-and-distance winning form and remains a contender on his best efforts despite the step back up in trip.
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3Captive Beauty51/100
Captive Beauty is a limited performer who has shown just one placed effort in six starts, finishing second over 7f here in August. She steps up to 1m for the first time today, which asks a fresh question. Trainer Ross Burdon has a 13% strike rate from 16 runs at Wolverhampton while Alexandra Egan takes the ride with a 7% record at the track. The three-year-old filly is generally held up, though with limited evidence, and her recent form is -60283. She has placed on standard ground without winning and holds course form, but the longer trip represents unknown territory.
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4Malakai Kite51/100
Malakai Kite is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in five runs this year. He steps up in trip today, which asks a fresh question of him, and the trainer's modest record here adds no encouragement. Ronald Harris has a 7% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 55 runs while Charles Bishop rides with a 10% record at the venue. The three-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late; recent form reads 43539. He has no previous experience of standard ground or of this course, leaving him with plenty to prove.
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5Cloch Nua46/100
Cloch Nua is a limited performer who has won once here from nine starts and has also scored at today's trip. He has shown little spark in recent runs and remains vulnerable in this company. The yard of Tony Culhane and Stella Barclay holds a solid 14% strike rate at the track from 28 runs, though the jockey is 0-9 here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the seven-year-old arrives with form figures of 4-6636. He has six wins from 26 on standard ground and looks to have the right conditions, yet his recent lack of spark is a concern.
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6Manton Road46/100
Manton Road is a limited horse who has shown consistency around this level with form figures of 323154 this year. He has won three times from nine runs at Wolverhampton and also has a win at today's trip, though his overall strike rate is modest. The trainer operates at a 6% strike rate here from 156 runs while the jockey has no supplied record at the track.
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7Amarachi46/100
Amarachi is a limited performer who has been placed four times on standard ground but remains winless in 15 starts. She ran poorly when tried here once before and steps back up to a trip that has not suited in two previous attempts. Trainer maintains a steady 13% strike-rate at the track from a big sample.
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8Pretty Spirited46/100
Pretty Spirited is a limited performer who has shown some consistency on this track without winning. She has placed twice from four starts at the trip and holds a respectable record on standard going with a win and three places from four runs. The yard's modest 4% strike-rate here adds a note of caution, though she drops in class.
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9Exquisite Skye46/100
Exquisite Skye is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in seven starts. She has placed once in two runs at Wolverhampton but drops back from 1m3½f to a trip where she has been placed without winning. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the track adds little confidence here.
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10Esplanade46/100
Esplanade has shown only modest form in three starts so far, finishing sixth on this track last time without threatening. The limited class read matches that level and he remains lightly raced with scope to improve. Trainer Charles Hills has a solid 16% strike rate at Wolverhampton from a big sample while Rob Hornby has yet to record a winner from his rides here. He drops in class.
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11Cy Twombly43/100
Cy Twombly is a limited performer who has failed to place in four runs at this track and shows no win or place from nine starts on standard going. Dropping back to 1m today asks a fresh question after his last run over 1m2f, though he has already been beaten four times at the trip. Trainer John Mackie has a 10% strike rate from 677 runs here while jockey Lewis Edmunds is 0-11 at the course.
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12Rogue Officer40/100
Rogue Officer is a limited horse who has shown just enough at this level to remain competitive. He has placed twice here and twice on standard ground without winning, and the recent second at this trip suggests he can go well from stall one again. Trainer's modest 10% strike rate at Wolverhampton from a big sample is worth noting.
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13Create38/100
Create is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and rarely wins at this level. He has three wins from 20 starts on standard ground and steps back up to a trip he has tried once before without success. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at Wolverhampton from a huge sample adds little encouragement on his first run here.
KTB verdict
Mr Fustic looks the most solid option in a race full of limited performers. He has won twice at this venue, handles the standard surface and has scored at this trip before, with the trainer holding a strong record at Wolverhampton. His held-up style should suit the expected steady pace, and he can time his run to best effect. Main dangers are R P McMurphy, who has course-and-distance form and the assistance of Oisin Murphy, and Cloch Nua, who brings winning form at the track and trip despite recent modest efforts. Captive Beauty and Malakai Kite are next in the KTB Fit order but both have significant questions to answer.
KTB Selection Mr Fustic
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Wolverhampton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Wolverhampton?
Mr Fustic has won twice here from six runs and Manton Road has won three times from nine runs.
How many of the field have previous winning form over this trip or distance?
Mr Fustic has won over the trip twice from five starts, R P McMurphy has two wins from six at the trip, Cloch Nua has scored at today's trip and Manton Road also has a win at the trip.
Which runners have no previous experience of standard ground?
Malakai Kite has no runs on standard ground and Esplanade has had just one run on the surface with no win or place.
Who are the trainers with the best strike rates at Wolverhampton according to the supplied data?
Andi Brown has an 18% strike rate from 44 runs, Charles Hills has 16% from 409 runs, and the joint-trainers of Cloch Nua have 14% from 28 runs.
Which horses are dropping in class for this race?
Pretty Spirited and Esplanade are both dropping in class.
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