7:30 Kempton (AW)
This Class 5 handicap over six furlongs at Kempton on standard to slow ground serves as a qualifier for the London Sprint Series and features a field of 12. The KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive but modest contest overall, with Liosa heading the figures on the back of two course wins from five starts and a solid record on this surface. Several runners are dropping in class while others step up in trip or carry first-time headgear, but the KTB numbers underline a race where course experience and proven ability on the all-weather could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one horse is expected to secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome. Elvetham is the only front-runner in the field and should be allowed to dictate from the front, while Goldwork is likely to race prominently just behind. The remainder of the field, including the selection Liosa from midfield and the cluster of held-up types such as Charlie Boyo, Calling A Star, Kiniro and King of Chaos, will be asked to close late. The key question is whether the clear leader can be reeled in or if the uncontested advantage will see the race won from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Liosa KTB Selection71/100
Liosa is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from five runs and also has two wins from five starts on standard to slow going. She has won at this trip and her recent form of 461350 shows she can still be competitive at this level. The six-year-old typically settles in midfield, which should see her well placed to launch an effort once the leader comes back to her in the straight. Trainer Zoe Hawkins records a 17% strike rate at Kempton from six runs with an A/E of 1.3 while Jack Dace, who takes the ride with his 5lb claim, has a 14% strike rate at the course with an A/E of 1.63 from 66 rides. Her placed efforts on this surface add further encouragement and she is the clear selection on the KTB numbers.
-
2Charlie Boyo60/100
Charlie Boyo is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form on his last two starts. The three-year-old steps up from 5½f to 6f having already won once at today's trip from five attempts, which looks a positive. He is usually held up and produces his effort late, so the uncontested lead up front could play to his strengths if the pace collapses late. Clive Cox's yard posts a 13% strike rate at Kempton from 982 runs with an A/E of 0.92, though Georgia Dobie has a 6% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.76 from 185 rides. He remains unproven on standard to slow ground, yet his recent progression suggests he can be competitive from his draw in nine.
-
3Calling A Star58/100
Calling A Star is a fair performer who has won twice this year but has looked below par on his last two starts. The three-year-old has run well enough here in the past without winning, finishing second on one of two visits, and acts on the trip though his sole run on this type of surface was unconvincing. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get first run. Richard Hughes's solid 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.91 from 654 runs offers some encouragement, as does Finley Marsh's 11% strike rate with an A/E of 0.94 from 325 rides. Dropping in class is another positive for a horse capable of bouncing back.
-
4Kiniro55/100
Kiniro is a fair handicapper who has been placed four times from five runs at Kempton without winning. The four-year-old drops back to 6f today having won twice at the trip earlier in his career, though his recent form of 028379 has been patchy and the yard is currently 0-12 at this track with an A/E of 0. Oisin Murphy takes the ride on ground he has handled well, recording one win from four starts on standard to slow with four places. Usually held up, he will be aiming to strike late from stall one, which could be an advantage if the race develops as expected. His placed course form suggests he knows where the winning post is here even if a first success at the track remains elusive.
-
5King of Chaos55/100
King of Chaos is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two wins this year. He has won twice at today's 6f trip yet looked below form when eleventh on his only previous visit to Kempton. The Cunha yard posts a 9% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.75 from 56 runs while Marco Ghiani has an 11% strike rate with an A/E of 0.9 from 348 rides. Usually held up, he will need to produce his effort at the right time against the uncontested leader. He remains unproven on standard to slow ground, which adds an element of risk, though dropping in class may help him return to his best form.
-
6Madman54/100
Madman is a fair performer who has won four times over this trip including once at Kempton from three starts. His recent form of 261131 shows consistency on the all-weather and he handles standard to slow going with one win from three starts. Usually held up, the trainer's poor 0% strike rate from 51 runs at the track with an A/E of 0 is a clear negative.
-
7Goldwork53/100
Goldwork is a modest performer who has been placed on all three starts at this track without winning. He has a win over today's trip on his record and showed some spark when placed on his only run on standard to slow ground. Usually races handily, the yard's modest strike rate here with a 9% record and A/E of 0.84 from 835 runs adds a note of caution.
-
8An Outlaw's Grace50/100
An Outlaw's Grace is a modest performer who has dropped to a winnable mark but has been inconsistent this year with a string of placed efforts mixed in with poor runs. He has won over today's trip yet remains unproven on standard to slow going and makes a first appearance at Kempton. The trainer's 11% strike rate from 1454 runs here is solid enough given the volume of runners sent.
-
9Perfect Location50/100
Perfect Location is a modest performer who has shown some spark on this track, finishing second here on his penultimate start before a lesser effort last time. He has won at this trip and is competitive on standard to slow ground, though he remains winless in 11 runs overall. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard's modest 10% strike rate at Kempton with an A/E of 0.87 from 294 runs offers no particular encouragement.
-
10Up The Agenda47/100
Up The Agenda is a modest performer who has won once from just one run at this track and is 1 from 1 on standard to slow going. He drops back to 6f having won three times at the trip from nine attempts, though recent form of 178649 shows consistency has been lacking lately. First-time headgear is now applied and the trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Kempton from 25 runs with an A/E of 0.4 offers little encouragement.
-
11Blue Orbit46/100
Blue Orbit is a modest performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and looks vulnerable from a middle draw. First time here is neutral given the trainer's solid 10% strike rate from 294 runs at Kempton with an A/E of 0.87. Unproven on standard to slow is a question mark and the placed effort at today's trip remains the only real positive in a career of 12 runs.
-
12Elvetham42/100
Elvetham is a modest performer who has won once from two starts at Kempton and holds an identical record on standard to slow ground. He steps up from five furlongs today having already won three times over this trip from 13 attempts. Usually a front-runner, he is ideally placed to take advantage of the lone leader pace shape.
KTB verdict
Liosa stands out on the KTB Fit ratings and has the right profile for this race, with two course wins from five starts, a strong record on standard to slow ground and the ability to race in midfield before delivering her challenge. Her recent form confirms she remains competitive at this level and the trainer-jockey combination adds further confidence on the figures. The main dangers are likely to come from those dropping in class such as Calling A Star and Kiniro, both of whom have shown placed form at the track, while Charlie Boyo and King of Chaos bring progressive or consistent all-weather form that cannot be ignored. Elvetham could prove hard to peg back if allowed an easy lead up front in a race where the pace shape strongly favours the one clear leader.
KTB Selection Liosa
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the uncontested lead pace shape?
Elvetham, as the only front-runner, is ideally positioned to take advantage of the lone leader shape with high confidence.
How many course wins does the selection Liosa have at Kempton?
Liosa has two wins from five starts at Kempton.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Perfect Location and Up The Agenda are both fitted with first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Kempton among the principals?
Zoe Hawkins has a 17% strike rate at Kempton from six runs with an A/E of 1.3.
Which horse has the most placed efforts at Kempton without a win?
Kiniro has been placed four times from five runs at Kempton without winning.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies