Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.96).
Deterministic profile computed from 1,063 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 26 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance25% when favouriteAlexis Badel: 4.9% from 102Sends off the favourite in 4% of races
The read
The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 2.8% strike, Fair A/E 0.60 and −118.40 to a £1 stake over 289 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Alexis Badel rides 10% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4.9%, A/E 0.77). The stable star of the record: The Time (FR) — 6 wins from 50 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
3.8%−1.7
n=315 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −82.60
New recruits · first run for the yard
3.3%−2.2
n=90 · A/E 0.52 · £1 −60.70
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.5
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
4.3%−1.2
n=23 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −16.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
4.5%−1.0
n=67 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −23.70
When favourite
25%
n=44 · A/E 1.22 · £1 +7.90
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.8%−2.7
n=289 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −118.40
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.5
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Maxime Guyon18.9% vs 5.5% · n=37
With Christophe Soumillon16.7% vs 5.5% · n=42
On last-time-out winners14% vs 5.5% · n=57
With K Vanderbeke0% vs 5.5% · n=34
With Vincent Cheminaud10.8% vs 5.5% · n=37
With C&D winners9.1% vs 5.5% · n=198
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)604325.3%−189.20
Soft175105.7%+6.20
Good13264.5%−57.90
Good to Soft10576.7%−40.40
Heavy4736.4%−30.10
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)407266.4%−152.90
Chantilly311123.9%−87.40
Saint-Cloud (FR)12797.1%+61.10
Longchamp (FR)8156.2%−40.50
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)8045%−44.10
Clairefontaine (FR)1516.7%−11.20
Dieppe (FR)900%−9.00
Le Croise-Laroche700%−7.00
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)600%−6.00
Vichy600%−6.00
Compiegne (FR)600%−6.00
Le Touquet400%−3.00
Fontainebleau2150%+2.60
Moulins (FR)100%−1.00
Dax100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 41200%−12.00
Class 31000%−10.00
Class 1300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite451124.4%1.20+6.90
2nd–3rd fav1061817%1.31+8.40
4th–6th fav190136.8%0.87−68.40
7th+ in betting718162.2%0.72−258.30
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f427214.9%−167.20
1m – 1m1f348205.7%−71.90
1m2f – 1m4f217125.5%−39.40
Under 6f3912.6%−30.60
1m5f – 2m28414.3%+1.70
2m1f – 2m4f400%−4.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20102400%−24.00
20114124.9%−19.00
20126123.3%−40.10
2013101109.9%+76.80
201413196.9%−67.90
20159133.3%−76.20
20164612.2%−33.00
20176968.7%−14.20
2018851011.8%+41.90
20198633.5%−6.00
20206023.3%−22.70
20217368.2%+9.90
20226511.5%−56.10
20235112%−47.20
20242627.7%+19.40
20252000%−20.00
20263300%−33.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps745364.8%−329.60
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners582366.2%−79.00
17+ runners22283.6%−106.00
11-13 runners17574%−78.70
8-10 runners6968.7%−38.30
5-7 runners1100%−11.00
2-4 runners4125%+1.60
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 97 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 53 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from H-A Pantall (8) and P Monfort (5); 7 had their first archived run for this yard.
12 have since run for another yard, most often for T Van Den Troost (2); 48 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
566756733558
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 6.7% of 1,100 runs since 2008 (71 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 26 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,063 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,063 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 1 July 2010 to 21 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is D De Waele's strike rate?
D De Waele has won 58 of 1,063 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.5% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does D De Waele do best at?
Saint-Cloud (FR) by strike rate: 9 wins from 127 runners (7.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for D De Waele?
Alexis Badel, with 102 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 5 (4.9%).
Is D De Waele in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is D De Waele's Fair A/E?
0.96, from 1,055 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
D De Waele·SR 5.5%·A/E 0.96
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