Andrea Marcialis
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sent out around 230 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 12% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.92). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 14% off breaks of two months or more (126 runs).
A horse in first-time headgear has been a poor signal at 5.9% (n=34, Fair A/E 0.65). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 14.3% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.25 and +26.40 to a £1 stake over 126 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Cristian Demuro rode 17% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (8.6% vs 12.3%, A/E 0.75). The yard also read well on Soft going (16.7%, n=120). 7 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud at Saint-Cloud (FR) (Jun 2020, £130,647).
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 12.3% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstWhen the yard fires
strike by month, lifetimeJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2018→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 683 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 683 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 21 October 2018 to 28 December 2020.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Andrea Marcialis's strike rate?
- Andrea Marcialis has won 84 of 683 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 12.3% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Andrea Marcialis do best at?
- Saint-Cloud (FR) by strike rate: 11 wins from 88 runners (12.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for Andrea Marcialis?
- Cristian Demuro, with 116 runners since 2008 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (8.6%).
- What is Andrea Marcialis's Fair A/E?
- 0.92, from 678 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.