Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 16% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.42).
Deterministic profile computed from 110 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026
The read
The yard also reads well on Soft going (22.5%, n=40) and over 1m5f – 2m (20.5%, n=44). The market has also underrated the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 1.64 across 61 runners (18% strike, +10.35 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly on Good going — 5.9% over 34 runners, 9.6pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the European Breeders Fund Lough Construction Ltd. Mares Novice Hurdle at Down Royal (Nov 2012, £23,725). The stable star of the record: Top Madam (IRE) — 7 wins from 22 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 15.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
14.3%−1.2
n=21 · A/E 1.97 · £1 +8.50
Debutants · first career start
10%−5.5
n=20 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −11.75
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−15.5
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
When favourite
44.4%
n=9 · A/E 1.47 · £1 +1.90
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
15%−0.5
n=80 · A/E 1.47 · £1 −0.90
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
7.7%−7.8
n=13 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −2.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Good going5.9% vs 15.5% · n=34
On Soft going22.5% vs 15.5% · n=40
In NH Flat races9.1% vs 15.5% · n=33
Over 1m5f – 2m20.5% vs 15.5% · n=44
In Hurdle races18% vs 15.5% · n=61
Over 2m1f – 2m4f14.3% vs 15.5% · n=56 · A/E 1.20
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle611118%+10.35
NH Flat3339.1%−16.00
Flat10330%+5.50
Chase600%−6.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft40922.5%+28.70
Good3425.9%−27.60
Heavy17423.5%+0.00
Good to Soft1119.1%−8.25
Good to Firm7114.3%+2.00
Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Cork16318.8%−4.00
Tipperary1119.1%−7.50
Wexford8337.5%+19.00
Limerick800%−8.00
Killarney8112.5%+1.00
Kilbeggan7114.3%−4.25
Clonmel700%−7.00
Listowel7114.3%+0.00
Thurles6233.3%+3.20
Punchestown600%−6.00
Fairyhouse400%−4.00
Tramore400%−4.00
Sligo3266.7%+15.25
Gowran Park300%−3.00
Bellewstown2150%−0.60
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 19111.1%+2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite9444.4%1.47+1.90
2nd–3rd fav36822.2%1.49−0.05
4th–6th fav3738.1%1.04−6.00
7th+ in betting2827.1%2.04−2.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f56814.3%−0.60
1m5f – 2m44920.5%+4.45
2m5f – 3m1000%−10.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200811218.2%−1.00
200914214.3%+6.00
20105120%+2.00
201215533.3%+9.75
201314321.4%+13.40
2014800%−8.00
201611100%+2.25
2017200%−2.00
2018100%−1.00
2019400%−4.00
2020500%−5.00
202113215.4%−5.30
20221218.3%−8.25
2023100%−1.00
2025400%−4.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps20210%+0.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners37410.8%+9.00
17+ runners24312.5%−8.25
11-13 runners18316.7%−5.30
8-10 runners17529.4%+7.75
5-7 runners1317.7%−9.75
2-4 runners11100%+0.40
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 21 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 21 horses listed, none arrived from another yard in our archive — all 21 had their first archived run here.
6 have since run for another yard; 15 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
33010131420027027250
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Top Madam (IRE) — European Breeders Fund Lough Construction Ltd. Mares Novice Hurdle (Grade 3) Down Royal · Nov 2012 · Grade 3
£23,725
Top Madam (IRE) — Guinness Sligo Handicap Hurdle Sligo · Aug 2013
Progeny have won 12.2% of 11,859 runs since 2009 (945 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.
Darazari (IRE)16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 9.7% of 288 runs since 2008 (36 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 139 · newest first
The latest 50 of 139 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 21 April 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Donal Coffey's strike rate?
Donal Coffey has won 17 of 110 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.5% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Donal Coffey's Fair A/E?
1.42, from 110 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Donal Coffey·SR 15.5%·A/E 1.42
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