Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sent out around 20 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.55).
Deterministic profile computed from 196 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceJerome Cabre: 2% from 98
The read
The record is strongest at Maisons-Laffitte (FR) (9.7%, n=31), clear of the yard's 4.1% baseline. Jerome Cabre rode 50% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (2% vs 4.1%, A/E 0.00). The yard also read well off a 15-30-day break (9.3%, n=43). The record read poorly on Soft going — 0% over 33 runners, 4.1pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.7%−1.4
n=74 · A/E 0.33 · £1 −15.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.1
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
Debutants · first career start
2.7%−1.4
n=37 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
3.6%−0.5
n=28 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.1
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
12.5%
n=16 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −8.40
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.1%+3.0
n=14 · A/E 1.24 · £1 +15.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.1
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break9.3% vs 4.1% · n=43
At Maisons-Laffitte (FR)9.7% vs 4.1% · n=31
On Soft going0% vs 4.1% · n=33
With Jerome Cabre2% vs 4.1% · n=98
Over 1m – 1m1f2% vs 4.1% · n=51
At Deauville (FR)5.3% vs 4.1% · n=75 · A/E 0.53
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat18684.3%−73.60
Hurdle900%−7.00
Chase100%—
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)7945.1%−22.40
Good4424.5%−6.00
Soft3300%−29.00
Good to Soft2314.3%−11.20
Heavy1500%−11.00
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Deauville (FR)7545.3%−18.40
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)3139.7%+12.80
Chantilly (FR)2400%−23.00
Saint-Cloud (FR)2100%−18.00
Longchamp (FR)1500%−15.00
Fontainebleau300%−2.00
Chateaubriant300%−2.00
Clairefontaine200%−2.00
Auteuil (FR)200%−1.00
Enghien (FR)200%−2.00
Nantes200%−2.00
Dieppe200%−1.00
Lisieux200%−1.00
Le Touquet100%—
Compiegne (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite17211.8%0.97−9.40
2nd–3rd fav1815.6%0.55−10.20
4th–6th fav3113.2%0.49−2.00
7th+ in betting11010.9%0.31−59.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m2f – 1m4f6035%−47.40
1m – 1m1f5112%+0.00
6f – 7f4824.2%−36.20
2m1f – 2m4f1500%−12.00
1m5f – 2m1317.7%+20.00
Under 6f9111.1%−5.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2008400%—
20096233.3%—
20103925.1%−27.20
20115735.3%−17.40
20123200%−31.00
20133313%+19.00
20141700%−16.00
2015800%−8.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps11154.5%−39.20
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners7922.5%−20.20
17+ runners5311.9%−49.00
2-4 runners25312%−9.00
8-10 runners1700%−17.00
11-13 runners1218.3%−8.40
5-7 runners10110%+23.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 58 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 58 horses listed, 18 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J-P Pelat (3) and J E Pease (2); 40 had their first archived run for this yard.
18 have since run for another yard, most often for J-L Guillochon (3) and Alex Fracas (2); 40 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
6012050759500
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
18
Archived wins
£425k
Prize money
2006
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Prinzde Glas (IRE) — Prix D'Alsace (Handicap) (4yo+) (Turf) Maisons-Laffitte (FR) · May 2011
£20,259
High Silver (FR) — Prix de Precy (Handicap) Chantilly (FR) · Jun 2006
£15,559
Kapirovska (FR) — Prix Auriban (Conditions) (3yo) (Turf) Maisons-Laffitte (FR) · Oct 2011
Progeny have won 8.2% of 1,895 runs since 2008 (165 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.9% from 227. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5% from 278.
Enrique (GB)0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 10.7% of 2,601 runs since 2008 (289 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.9% from 370. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15.8% from 462. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.6% from 347.
Kaldounevees (FR)11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 9.9% of 669 runs since 2008 (93 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15.2% from 164. Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 152. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.7% from 106.
Lomitas (GB)14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 10.7% of 1,870 runs since 2008 (163 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.6% from 122. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 319. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.7% from 120.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 237 · newest first
The latest 50 of 237 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 February 2005 to 27 December 2015.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is E Danel's strike rate?
E Danel has won 8 of 196 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.1% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does E Danel do best at?
Maisons-Laffitte (FR) by strike rate: 3 wins from 31 runners (9.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for E Danel?
Jerome Cabre, with 98 runners since 2008 — 50% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (2%).
What is E Danel's Fair A/E?
0.55, from 164 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
E Danel·SR 4.1%·A/E 0.55
KTB
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