What is John Davies's strike rate?

John Davies has won 42 of 702 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does John Davies do best at?

Newcastle by strike rate: 4 wins from 35 runners (11.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for John Davies?

Sam James, with 139 runners since 2008 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (5%).

What is John Davies's Fair A/E?

0.88, from 698 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

John Davies

702 runners in the lifetime window · 81 individual horses

As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 328 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

42–702

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=702

162 (23%)

Placed

0.88

Fair A/E

n=698 · 0.74 incl. margin

−332.05

£1 level stake

n=702 at SP · −47.3%

£296k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 40 runners a season, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.88).

Deterministic profile computed from 702 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance 31.6% when favourite Sam James: 5% from 139 Sends off the favourite in 5% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Thirsk (10.7%, n=84) and Carlisle (11.1%, n=45) — all clear of the yard's 6% baseline. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=56, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 3.1% strike, Fair A/E 0.69 and −25.17 to a £1 stake over 128 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Sam James rides 20% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (5%, A/E 0.75). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 1.4% over 73 runners, 4.6pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Alfred Richardson (GB) — 6 wins from 39 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.6%−1.4

n=152 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −19.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

13%+7.0

n=23 · A/E 3.65 · £1 +44.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−6.0

n=56 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −56.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.4%+1.4

n=27 · A/E 1.27 · £1 −4.50

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

3.1%−2.9

n=32 · A/E 0.49 · £1 −19.00

When favourite

31.6%

n=38 · A/E 1.31 · £1 +6.46

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

3.1%−2.9

n=128 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −25.17

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 16.7% vs 6% · n=42

With Phillip Makin 12.9% vs 6% · n=85

With debutants 0% vs 6% · n=56

At Thirsk 10.7% vs 6% · n=84

Over 1m5f – 2m 1.4% vs 6% · n=73

At Carlisle 11.1% vs 6% · n=45

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 590 39 6.6% −255.55

Hurdle 89 3 3.4% −53.50

NH Flat 20 0 0% −20.00

Chase 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 189 12 6.3% −96.59

Standard (AW) 139 6 4.3% −50.50

Good to Firm 138 9 6.5% −90.29

Soft 118 9 7.6% −8.00

Good to Soft 95 5 5.3% −70.17

Heavy 23 1 4.3% −16.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 117 4 3.4% −54.00

Thirsk 84 9 10.7% +21.25

Redcar 80 4 5% −66.09

Catterick 66 3 4.5% −52.84

Carlisle 45 5 11.1% −19.00

Ripon 36 1 2.8% −19.00

Newcastle 35 4 11.4% −10.00

Pontefract 34 2 5.9% −24.25

Wetherby 27 2 7.4% −15.50

Beverley 24 1 4.2% −21.12

Doncaster 24 1 4.2% −11.00

Southwell (AW) 22 2 9.1% +3.50

Sedgefield 22 0 0% −22.00

Hexham 13 0 0% −13.00

Nottingham 11 0 0% −11.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 274 20 7.3% −140.83

Class 6 246 17 6.9% −100.22

Class 4 166 5 3% −75.00

Class 3 11 0 0% −11.00

Class 2 4 0 0% −4.00

Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 47 14 29.8% 1.31 +5.96

2nd–3rd fav 94 16 17% 1.18 −13.01

4th–6th fav 196 7 3.6% 0.51 −113.00

7th+ in betting 365 5 1.4% 0.50 −212.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

6f – 7f 219 14 6.4% −94.68

1m – 1m1f 189 17 9% −77.87

1m2f – 1m4f 127 7 5.5% −49.00

1m5f – 2m 73 1 1.4% −52.00

2m1f – 2m4f 55 3 5.5% −19.50

Under 6f 28 0 0% −28.00

2m5f – 3m 6 0 0% −6.00

Over 3m 5 0 0% −5.00

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 6 0 0% −6.00

2009 17 0 0% −17.00

2010 20 1 5% −3.00

2011 14 1 7.1% −8.50

2012 35 1 2.9% −6.00

2013 41 1 2.4% −33.50

2014 51 5 9.8% −17.12

2015 57 4 7% −20.00

2016 75 8 10.7% +3.50

2017 72 9 12.5% −24.04

2018 56 4 7.1% −38.00

2019 59 1 1.7% −42.00

2020 49 1 2% −44.67

2021 45 2 4.4% −37.75

2022 27 0 0% −27.00

2023 36 1 2.8% +15.00

2024 27 3 11.1% −10.97

2025 15 0 0% −15.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 500 34 6.8% −165.76

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

11-13 runners 247 11 4.5% −117.17

8-10 runners 221 15 6.8% −108.87

14-16 runners 134 6 4.5% −102.92

5-7 runners 67 8 11.9% −13.84

17+ runners 30 2 6.7% +13.75

2-4 runners 3 0 0% −3.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Highjacked (GB) 47 4 22 9 Sep 25

Im Dapper Too (GB) 43 5 16 30 Aug 19

Mango Chutney (GB) 42 5 21 22 Sep 20

Alfred Richardson (GB) 39 6 14 25 May 21

The Osteopath (IRE)from Michael Dods 37 6 10 21 Sep 16

Millkwood (GB) 35 1 16 3 Nov 15

Mcvicar (GB)from Alan King 25 2 7 28 Dec 17

Major Rowan (GB)from Bryan Smart 19 3 5 16 Jul 18

Garifullina (GB) 17 2 5 9 Dec 25

Throckley (GB)then Conor Dore 17 1 6 7 Oct 17

Noosa Sound (GB) 15 0 3 9 Aug 14

Cornell (GB) 14 0 1 27 Jan 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 81 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 17 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Michael Dods (6); 43 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for David Thompson (4); 49 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

80313561154326

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderSam James

20% of all rides
5% SR · A/E 0.75

RiderRWSR£1

Sam James 139 7 5% −106.92

Phillip Makin 85 11 12.9% −35.74

P J McDonald 61 5 8.2% +8.50

Connor Beasley 56 2 3.6% −48.67

Amie Waugh 44 2 4.5% +11.33

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→

Archived wins

£296k

Prize money

2017

Best season · 9 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Kommander Kirkup (GB) — Totescoop6 The Millionaire Maker Handicap Thirsk · Apr 2016 · Class 4

£6,469

Alfred Richardson (GB) — Ramsdens Currency - Best Rates Guaranteed Handicap Ripon · Jul 2019 · Class 4

£6,340

Alfred Richardson (GB) — sunracing.co.uk Handicap Newcastle (AW) · Nov 2018 · Class 4

£5,531

Notable horses

Alfred Richardson (GB) The Osteopath (IRE) Im Dapper Too (GB) Mango Chutney (GB) Highjacked (GB) Major Rowan (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dapper (GB) 11.1% · 11–99

Progeny have won 12.5% of 240 runs since 2009 (18 horses).

Dick Turpin (IRE) 8.5% · 4–47

Progeny have won 7.8% of 1,368 runs since 2015 (103 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.7% from 247. Weakest on Good to Soft going: 4.7% from 149. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 4.1% from 271.

Sleeping Indian (GB) 11.1% · 5–45

Progeny have won 8.9% of 3,715 runs since 2010 (238 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 0.9% from 108.

Danehill Dancer (IRE) 16.2% · 6–37

Progeny have won 11.2% of 10,094 runs since 2008 (783 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.2% from 130.

Millkom (GB) 2.9% · 1–35

Progeny have won 9.6% of 415 runs since 2008 (43 horses).

Cannock Chase (USA) 3.2% · 1–31

Progeny have won 7.4% of 310 runs since 2020 (33 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 714 · newest first

The latest 50 of 714 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 21 February 2006 to 9 December 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

09 Dec 25 Newcastle (AW) Garifullina (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 14/1

27 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Ideal Quest (GB)J: Shane Gray Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 300/1

26 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Carlos Garcia (GB)J: Rhys Elliott Build Your Acca With Betuk Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 100/1

18 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Garifullina (GB)J: Kevin Stott Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 28/1

07 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Ideal Quest (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 300/1

01 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Ideal Attraction (GB)J: Amie Waugh Always Gamble Responsibly At BetMGM Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 125/1

21 Oct 25 Newcastle (AW) Garifullina (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Midnite: Built For 2025 Not 2005 HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 28/1

09 Sep 25 Catterick Highjacked (GB)J: David Nolan Racing TV Club Day HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good · 8 ran 8th 14/1

05 Aug 25 Catterick Garifullina (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Racing Again 18th August HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Good · 6 ran 2nd 3/1

23 Jul 25 Catterick Highjacked (GB)J: Oisin Orr Racing Again 5th August HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Soft · 9 ran 4th 10/3

10 Jul 25 Carlisle Ideal Dudley (GB)J: Rhys Elliott Rachael Bell Wealth Management Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 14th 125/1

10 Jul 25 Carlisle Carlos Garcia (GB)J: Sam James Rachael Bell Wealth Management Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 13th 33/1

27 Jun 25 Newcastle (AW) Highjacked (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Take The Lead With X3 Consulting HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 12/1

27 Jun 25 Newcastle (AW) Carlos Garcia (GB)J: Sean Kirrane JenningsBet In Shiremoor Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 200/1

09 Apr 25 Catterick Highjacked (GB)J: Amie Waugh Racing Again 23rd April HandicapClass 5 · 6f · Good · 11 ran 8th 14/1

19 Oct 24 Catterick Highjacked (GB)J: Amie Waugh William Hill Committed To Top Prices Veterans' HandicapClass 4 · 6f · Soft · 11 ran 7th 6/1

15 Oct 24 Newcastle (AW) Garifullina (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 22/1

15 Oct 24 Newcastle (AW) Curious Mrs Fox (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 33/1

04 Oct 24 Newcastle (AW) Curious Mrs Fox (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Elite Venue Selection Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 16/1

02 Oct 24 Catterick Garifullina (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Racingtv.Com HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Soft · 10 ran 2nd 6/4F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Davies's strike rate?: John Davies has won 42 of 702 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Davies do best at?: Newcastle by strike rate: 4 wins from 35 runners (11.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for John Davies?: Sam James, with 139 runners since 2008 — 20% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (5%).
What is John Davies's Fair A/E?: 0.88, from 698 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.