Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 3.9%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−2.7
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.7
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
50%
n=2 · A/E 1.84 · £1 +0.62
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.9%+1.2
n=51 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −33.38
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With claiming riders up3.9% vs 2.7% · n=51 · A/E 0.80
In Flat races1.9% vs 2.7% · n=54 · A/E 0.38
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat5411.9%−39.00
Hurdle1417.1%−11.38
NH Flat500%−5.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)4012.5%−25.00
Good1218.3%−9.38
Good to Soft1100%−11.00
Soft500%−5.00
Good to Firm300%−3.00
Heavy200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW)1800%−18.00
Southwell (AW)9111.1%+6.00
Newcastle (AW)700%−7.00
Doncaster400%−4.00
Uttoxeter400%−4.00
Bath300%−3.00
Stratford300%−3.00
Chelmsford City (AW)300%−3.00
Newbury200%−2.00
Lingfield (AW)200%−2.00
Ludlow200%−2.00
Leicester200%−2.00
Bangor-on-Dee200%−2.00
Windsor100%−1.00
Catterick100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 63712.7%−22.00
Class 52813.6%−25.38
Class 4800%−8.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite2150%1.84+0.62
2nd–3rd fav900%0.00−9.00
4th–6th fav1915.3%0.84−4.00
7th+ in betting4300%0.00−43.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f2713.7%−12.00
1m2f – 1m4f1800%−18.00
1m5f – 2m1300%−13.00
2m5f – 3m6116.7%−3.38
6f – 7f600%−6.00
2m1f – 2m4f300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222214.5%−19.38
20233300%−33.00
20241815.6%−3.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps5123.9%−33.38
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners3812.6%−23.00
8-10 runners2214.5%−19.38
14-16 runners700%−7.00
5-7 runners600%−6.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 10 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 10 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Kevin Frost (3); 7 had their first archived run for this yard.
2 have since run for another yard; 8 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00101700000000
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Ever Special (IRE) — Chemipetro Ltd Handicap Hurdle Leicester · Dec 2006 · Class 3
£7,516
Zed Candy (FR) — Celestial Halo JCB Novices' Hurdle Uttoxeter · Oct 2008 · Class 3
Progeny have won 7.4% of 1,074 runs since 2008 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 10.9% from 201. Weakest on Soft going: 3.9% from 103. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 11.4% from 123. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.8% from 158.
Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,119 runs since 2008 (1,097 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.3% from 952.
Great Pretender (IRE)0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 13% of 3,528 runs since 2008 (410 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 16.5% from 728. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 6.6% from 151.
Progeny have won 9.4% of 1,938 runs since 2008 (164 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.1% from 115.
Brian Boru (GB)20% · 1–5
Progeny have won 11% of 4,121 runs since 2008 (285 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 775 · newest first
The latest 50 of 775 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 14 January 2005 to 24 July 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is John Stimpson's strike rate?
John Stimpson has won 2 of 73 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 2.7% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is John Stimpson's Fair A/E?
0.53, from 72 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
John Stimpson·SR 2.7%·A/E 0.53
KTB
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