What is John Stimpson's strike rate?

John Stimpson has won 35 of 440 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does John Stimpson do best at?

Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 48 runners (8.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

What is John Stimpson's Fair A/E?

1.30, from 439 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

John Stimpson

440 runners in the lifetime window · 59 individual horses

As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Jul 2024

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

35–440

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=440

97 (22%)

Placed

1.30

Fair A/E

n=439 · 1.10 incl. margin

+26.44

£1 level stake

n=440 at SP · +6.0%

£161k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

5.6%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.30). With a claiming rider up the record reads 10% (187 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 440 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jul–Sep Claiming riders: 9.6%

The read

Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 9.6% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.60 and +2.44 to a £1 stake over 187 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. The yard also reads well on Good to Firm going (15%, n=60) and in Hurdle races (13.9%, n=79). The record reads poorly over 6f – 7f — 0% over 69 runners, 8pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: My Brother Mike (IRE) — 7 wins from 38 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jul–Sep.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

5.3%−2.7

n=94 · A/E 1.26 · £1 +6.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

3.6%−4.4

n=28 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −13.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−8.0

n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−8.0

n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

4.2%−3.8

n=24 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −16.50

When favourite

54.5%

n=11 · A/E 2.03 · £1 +8.69

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.6%+1.6

n=187 · A/E 1.60 · £1 +2.44

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Over 6f – 7f 0% vs 8% · n=69

On Good to Firm going 15% vs 8% · n=60

In Hurdle races 13.9% vs 8% · n=79

With Shane Kelly 2.2% vs 8% · n=45

On last-time-out winners 13.5% vs 8% · n=37

Off a break of 180+ days 2.6% vs 8% · n=38

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 338 24 7.1% +30.50

Hurdle 79 11 13.9% +18.94

Chase 12 0 0% −12.00

NH Flat 11 0 0% −11.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 224 14 6.3% −36.75

Good 84 5 6% −36.88

Good to Firm 60 9 15% +52.00

Good to Soft 36 2 5.6% −20.38

Soft 26 4 15.4% +11.45

Firm 5 1 20% +62.00

Heavy 5 0 0% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 109 8 7.3% +5.75

Southwell (AW) 48 4 8.3% −0.50

Lingfield 31 2 6.5% −6.00

Uttoxeter 27 3 11.1% −13.80

Kempton (AW) 24 0 0% −24.00

Bath 12 3 25% +63.75

Southwell 12 2 16.7% +14.00

Yarmouth 11 1 9.1% −5.50

Nottingham 9 1 11.1% +17.00

Ludlow 9 0 0% −9.00

Huntingdon 9 0 0% −9.00

Doncaster 9 0 0% −9.00

Newcastle (AW) 9 0 0% −9.00

Redcar 8 1 12.5% +7.00

Leicester 8 0 0% −8.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 211 19 9% +69.50

Class 5 154 7 4.5% −68.88

Class 4 56 7 12.5% +24.82

Class 3 10 2 20% +10.00

Class 7 8 0 0% −8.00

Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 15 8 53.3% 2.09 +12.44

2nd–3rd fav 52 7 13.5% 0.99 +14.50

4th–6th fav 114 6 5.3% 0.72 −49.50

7th+ in betting 259 14 5.4% 1.84 +49.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

My Brother Mike (IRE)from Kevin Frost · then David Loughnane 38 7 17 28 Jun 24

Apache Glory (USA)from Richard Hannon Snr · then Mark Loughnane 27 3 9 10 Dec 14

Diletta Tommasa (IRE)from Marco Botti · then Mark Loughnane 23 5 6 25 Oct 14

Hawaiian Freeze (GB)from Richard Ford · then J Moon 20 1 2 20 Feb 14

Jumbo Prado (USA)from Mark Loughnane · then Mark Loughnane 19 2 6 24 Nov 14

Peruvian Summer (IRE)from Kevin Frost 18 1 2 8 Jun 24

Shadow Jumper (IRE)from Michael Attwater 15 0 0 1 May 09

Zed Candy Girl (GB)then Mark Loughnane 14 1 3 27 Nov 14

The Grey Bandit (GB) 11 0 1 13 Jan 24

Hurricane Dylan (IRE)from Kevin Frost 11 1 4 19 Apr 22

Houri (IRE)from Ralph Beckett 11 0 0 16 Oct 09

Bolckow (GB)from Kevin Ryan 11 1 3 27 Aug 09

All 59 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 59 horses listed, 39 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mark Loughnane (9) and Kevin Frost (5); 20 had their first archived run for this yard.

31 have since run for another yard, most often for Mark Loughnane (13) and Barry Leavy (6); 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

34111407181510720

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderShane Kelly

10% of all rides
2.2% SR · A/E 0.36

RiderRWSR£1

Shane Kelly 45 1 2.2% −30.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£253k

Prize money

2008

Best season · 12 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Ever Special (IRE) — Chemipetro Ltd Handicap Hurdle Leicester · Dec 2006 · Class 3

£7,516

Zed Candy (FR) — Celestial Halo JCB Novices' Hurdle Uttoxeter · Oct 2008 · Class 3

£6,505

Elaala (USA) — Clean Waste Solutions Handicap Hurdle Southwell · Jul 2008 · Class 3

£6,505

Notable horses

My Brother Mike (IRE) Ice And Fire (GB) Zed Candy (FR) Diletta Tommasa (IRE) Elaala (USA) Don Pasquale (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Bated Breath (GB) 18.4% · 7–38

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,175 runs since 2016 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.6% from 855.

Fountain Of Youth (IRE) 0% · 0–33

Progeny have won 7.3% of 1,075 runs since 2019 (104 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 10.9% from 201. Weakest on Soft going: 3.9% from 103. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 11.3% from 124. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 3.8% from 158.

Cherokee Run (USA) 11.1% · 3–27

Progeny have won 11.9% of 185 runs since 2008 (21 horses).

Dylan Thomas (IRE) 21.7% · 5–23

Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,495 runs since 2011 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.

Avonbridge (GB) 5% · 1–20

Progeny have won 8.6% of 3,930 runs since 2009 (262 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.6% from 795.

El Prado (IRE) 10.5% · 2–19

Progeny have won 9.4% of 501 runs since 2008 (55 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 13.4% from 119. Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 15% from 140.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 775 · newest first

The latest 50 of 775 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 14 January 2005 to 24 July 2024.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

24 Jul 24 Salisbury Roman Princess (GB)J: Mr Adam O'Shea Highclere Castle Horse Feeds 'Carnarvon' Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 9th 28/1

30 Jun 24 Wolverhampton (AW) Roman Princess (GB)J: Dougie Costello Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Classified Stakes (Rider Restricted Race)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 40/1

28 Jun 24 Newcastle (AW) My Brother Mike (IRE)J: Mr Adam O'Shea JenningsBet In Goole Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 3rd 14/1

26 Jun 24 Worcester Blue Razz (GB)J: Mr Adam O'Shea Pollys 80th Birthday Celebration NH Flat Race (Conditionals/Amateurs) (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 8th 80/1

15 Jun 24 Uttoxeter Apache Princess (GB)J: Philip Armson Cannock Chemicals Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 10 ran PU 125/1

08 Jun 24 Bangor-on-Dee Peruvian Summer (IRE)J: Philip Armson Cheshire Oaks Designer Outlet Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 14 ran 10th 200/1

13 May 24 Wolverhampton (AW) Roman Princess (GB)J: Christian Howarth Tips For Every Race At raceday-ready.com HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 125/1

01 May 24 Pontefract My Brother Mike (IRE)J: Andrew Mullen Trustees Of The National Horseracing College HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Soft · 12 ran 7th 16/1

29 Apr 24 Southwell (AW) Peruvian Sunset (GB)J: Andrew Mullen Download The Yeeehaaa.Bet App HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 13 ran PU 66/1

08 Apr 24 Lingfield (AW) My Brother Mike (IRE)J: Mr Adam O'Shea Enjoy The Racing App For Free Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 5/1

12 Mar 24 Southwell (AW) My Brother Mike (IRE)J: Mr Adam O'Shea BetMGM: It's Showtime Amateur Jockeys' Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 14/1

09 Feb 24 Chelmsford City (AW) Peruvian Sunset (GB)J: Mr Adam O'Shea Support The Injured Jockeys Fund Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 125/1

06 Feb 24 Wolverhampton (AW) My Brother Mike (IRE)J: Dougie Costello Stay Golden With Betmgm Safer Gambling HandicapClass 6 · 8.5f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 28/1

13 Jan 24 Wolverhampton (AW) The Grey Bandit (GB)J: Jonathan Fisher BetUK. Home Of The Acca-Fenwa Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 4th 33/1

10 Jan 24 Doncaster Poppop (FR)J: Mr Adam O'Shea Sky Sports Racing HD Virgin 519 'Hands And Heels' Handicap Hurdle (Conditional And Amateur Jockeys')Class 5 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 11th 6/1

09 Jan 24 Southwell (AW) Peruvian Sunset (GB)J: Gina Mangan Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Classified StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 7th 80/1

08 Jan 24 Newcastle (AW) Roman Princess (GB)J: Jonathan Fisher Win 2,000,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 66/1

08 Jan 24 Newcastle (AW) My Brother Mike (IRE)J: Dougie Costello BetUK. Home Of The Acca-Fenwa HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 66/1

11 Dec 23 Chelmsford City (AW) Peruvian Summer (IRE)J: Mr Adam O'Shea Private Events At Chelmsford City Racecourse Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 80/1

06 Dec 23 Ludlow Poppop (FR)J: Tristan Durrell G.C.Rickards Ltd Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Soft · 9 ran 3rd 11/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Stimpson's strike rate?: John Stimpson has won 35 of 440 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Stimpson do best at?: Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 4 wins from 48 runners (8.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is John Stimpson's Fair A/E?: 1.30, from 439 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.