What is Aidan Keeley's strike rate?

Aidan Keeley has won 105 of 1,056 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9.9% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Aidan Keeley do best at?

Ffos Las by strike rate: 7 wins from 52 rides (13.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Aidan Keeley ride most for?

Roger Varian, with 134 rides since 2022 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (15.7%).

What is Aidan Keeley's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 1,051 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Aidan Keeley

1,056 rides in the last 5 seasons · 626 individual horses

As at 9 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 189 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)

from 1 Jan 2022

105–1,056

Wins / Runs

9.9%

Strike rate

n=1,056

302 (29%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=1,051 · 0.88 incl. margin

−235.23

£1 level stake

n=1,056 at SP · −22.3%

£1.35m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 210 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.02). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 21% (107 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,056 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 9 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Feb 31.9% when favourite Roger Varian: 15.7% from 134 LTO winners: 20.6% Claiming: 10.5% Rides the favourite in 7% of races

The read

It is weakest at Kempton (AW) (3% over 99 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 20.6% (n=107, Fair A/E 1.10), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 5.1% (n=98, Fair A/E 1.04). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 8.6% strikes only just below baseline, but Fair A/E 1.36 and +13.93 to a £1 stake over 151 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Roger Varian supplies 13% of the rides and beats the rider's average (15.7% vs 9.9%, A/E 1.05) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The standout partner of the record: Glorious Charmer (GB) — 5 wins from 14 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Jan–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

8.5%−1.4

n=615 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −133.78

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

20.6%+10.7

n=107 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −9.86

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

8.6%−1.3

n=151 · A/E 1.36 · £1 +13.93

When favourite

31.9%

n=69 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −11.26

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

10.5%+0.6

n=741 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −116.64

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.1%−4.8

n=98 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −45.75

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−9.9

n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 20.6% vs 9.9% · n=107

With C&D winners 18.5% vs 9.9% · n=168

With James Owen 18.9% vs 9.9% · n=53

At Kempton (AW) 3% vs 9.9% · n=99

With Roger Varian 15.7% vs 9.9% · n=134

With Gary Moore 3.3% vs 9.9% · n=30

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 60.7% of the archive so far (as at 9 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 524 49 9.4% −113.70

Good 195 22 11.3% −16.00

Good to Firm 166 16 9.6% −66.51

Good to Soft 71 5 7% −33.50

Soft 68 7 10.3% −17.75

Heavy 29 6 20.7% +15.23

Firm 3 0 0% −3.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Lingfield (AW) 128 14 10.9% +23.56

Wolverhampton (AW) 123 15 12.2% −38.95

Kempton (AW) 99 3 3% −80.75

Chelmsford City (AW) 81 7 8.6% +10.94

Brighton 65 7 10.8% −23.75

Southwell (AW) 64 8 12.5% −15.50

Ffos Las 52 7 13.5% −2.77

Windsor 47 5 10.6% −18.17

Newcastle (AW) 29 2 6.9% −13.00

Bath 28 1 3.6% −26.17

Epsom Downs 25 4 16% −1.50

Chepstow 25 3 12% −3.75

Yarmouth 25 1 4% −20.50

Chester 24 3 12.5% −13.83

Goodwood 21 1 4.8% −11.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 480 50 10.4% −128.11

Class 5 278 25 9% −70.28

Class 4 174 18 10.3% −71.34

Class 2 73 5 6.8% −23.50

Class 3 47 7 14.9% +62.00

Class 1 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 82 26 31.7% 1.05 −10.64

2nd–3rd fav 221 41 18.6% 1.07 −13.09

4th–6th fav 338 32 9.5% 1.16 +9.50

7th+ in betting 415 6 1.4% 0.50 −221.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Hey Ho Let's Go (GB) 15 4 5 4 Jan 24

Glorious Charmer (GB) 14 5 9 18 Dec 23

Destinado (GB) 12 5 6 2 Jun 24

Fantastic Fox (GB) 11 2 5 27 Nov 25

Greatgadian (GER) 10 0 3 20 Jun 24

Easy Equation (FR) 10 3 6 10 Jun 23

Bonkersinabundance (IRE) 9 2 2 19 Oct 23

Nivelle's Magic (GB) 8 3 5 6 Jun 24

My Bonnie Lassie (GB) 8 0 3 3 Jun 24

Liberty Bay (GB) 8 0 1 29 Jan 24

Heer's Sadie (GB) 8 2 5 19 Oct 23

Debora's Dream (IRE) 7 3 5 26 Aug 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 626 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

141281439158910133

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardRoger Varian

13% of all rides
15.7% SR · A/E 1.05

TrainerRWSR£1

Roger Varian 134 21 15.7% −26.15

James Owen 53 10 18.9% +7.85

Mark Hoad 36 4 11.1% −3.25

Bernard Llewellyn 35 3 8.6% −18.27

Gary Moore 30 1 3.3% −20.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→

107

Archived wins

£1.37m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 43 wins

Majestic (IRE) — bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Newmarket · Sep 2022 · Class 2

£103,080

Minstrel Knight (GB) — William Hill Finale Handicap (Heritage Handicap) York · Oct 2024 · Class 2

£51,540

Fantastic Fox (GB) — Bet 10 Get 40 At BetMGM Handicap Lingfield (AW) · Jan 2024 · Class 3

£18,319

Notable horses

Glorious Charmer (GB) Destinado (GB) Hey Ho Let's Go (GB) Easy Equation (FR) Nivelle's Magic (GB) Mirabello Bay (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Belardo (IRE) 22.2% · 6–27

Progeny have won 10.2% of 3,744 runs since 2020 (281 horses).

Kodiac (GB) 0% · 0–27

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,603 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 25% · 6–24

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,233 runs since 2014 (1,110 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 960.

Dandy Man (IRE) 5.3% · 1–19

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,988 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Charm Spirit (IRE) 29.4% · 5–17

Progeny have won 9.3% of 3,833 runs since 2018 (339 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 448. Weakest on Heavy going: 3.7% from 135. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 446.

Churchill (IRE) 11.8% · 2–17

Progeny have won 11% of 4,851 runs since 2021 (462 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 9 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,094 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,094 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 7 October 2020 to 4 May 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 May 26 Windsor Cartwheel (GB)T: Dylan Cunha Daily Prize Wheel At betwright.com Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 6th 25/1

03 May 26 Salisbury Sir Griflet (IRE)T: Dylan Cunha Fitzdares Extra Places Every Day EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 12f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 5th 125/1

02 May 26 Goodwood Arc At Her (GB)T: Dylan Cunha Elston Supports UK Financial Advisers Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Good · 9 ran 9th 22/1

29 Apr 26 Bath Crystal Kraken (GB)T: Dylan Cunha Download The Fairplay App Now EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 5.5f · Firm · 10 ran 9th 125/1

28 Apr 26 Epsom Downs Hengest (GB)T: Dylan Cunha Weatherbys Racing Bank Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8.5f · Good · 9 ran 4th 80/1

18 Apr 26 Thirsk Relocal (FR)T: Roger Varian Happy 21st Birthday Lily Watkinson Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good · 12 ran 8th 25/1

17 Apr 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Mayflower Rock (GB)T: Dylan Cunha Download The Raceday Ready App Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 66/1

13 Apr 26 Leicester Clough (IRE)T: Dylan Cunha Best Ticket Deals Online At leicester-racecourse.co.uk Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 12 ran 11th 300/1

15 Dec 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Pomeriggio (IRE)T: Nikki Evans Midnite: Built For 2025 Not 2005 HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 125/1

15 Dec 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Striking Flame (IRE)T: Nikki Evans Bet 10 Get 40 With BetMGM EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 200/1

12 Dec 25 Southwell (AW) Dapperling (IRE)T: Scott Dixon Midnite Are Upping The Betting Game HandicapClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 4th 33/1

01 Dec 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Pleniflora (GB)T: Nikki Evans Midnite: Built For 2025 Not 2005 Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 5 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 300/1

27 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Fantastic Fox (GB)T: Roger Varian Win 250,000 With BetMGM's Golden Goals HandicapClass 3 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 7/1

26 Nov 25 Southwell (AW) Sound Gloria (GB)T: Roger Varian Free Tips Daily On AtTheRaces.com Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 13th 16/1

25 Nov 25 Lingfield (AW) Almavillalobas (GB)T: Jim & Suzi Best Get Raceday Ready HandicapClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 50/1

25 Nov 25 Lingfield (AW) Dandy Khan (IRE)T: Jim Boyle Free Digital Racecard At Raceday-Ready.Com HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 40/1

20 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) She's A Dark Horse (GB)T: Gary Harrison Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 50/1

20 Nov 25 Newcastle (AW) Poet (GB)T: Scott Dixon Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 25/1

19 Nov 25 Kempton (AW) Blast The Dream (GB)T: Roger Varian Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 11f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 6th 7/1

19 Nov 25 Kempton (AW) Who's On First (GB)T: Stuart Williams Set Your Limits With Unibet NurseryClass 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 8th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Aidan Keeley's strike rate?: Aidan Keeley has won 105 of 1,056 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9.9% (as at 9 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Aidan Keeley do best at?: Ffos Las by strike rate: 7 wins from 52 rides (13.5%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Aidan Keeley ride most for?: Roger Varian, with 134 rides since 2022 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 21 (15.7%).
What is Aidan Keeley's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 1,051 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.