What is Michael Chapman's strike rate?

Michael Chapman has won 66 of 2,207 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Michael Chapman do best at?

Stratford by strike rate: 5 wins from 61 runners (8.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Michael Chapman?

Lee Vickers, with 207 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (3.4%).

What is Michael Chapman's Fair A/E?

0.79, from 2,200 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Michael Chapman

2,207 runners in the lifetime window · 90 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 38 days ago

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

66–2,207

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=2,207

231 (11%)

Placed

0.79

Fair A/E

n=2,200 · 0.68 incl. margin

−975.75

£1 level stake

n=2,207 at SP · −44.2%

£490k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 120 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.79).

Deterministic profile computed from 2,207 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Lee Vickers: 3.4% from 207 New recruits: 4%

The read

The record is strongest at Stratford (8.2%, n=61), Ludlow (7.9%, n=63) and Wolverhampton (AW) (7.5%, n=53) — all clear of the yard's 3% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=284, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 3% strike, Fair A/E 0.79 and −826.00 to a £1 stake over 1,837 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Lee Vickers rides 9% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (3.4%, A/E 0.98) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (6.5%, n=371). The stable star of the record: Orpen Wide (IRE) — 18 wins from 164 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

0%−3.0

n=284 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −284.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

4%+1.0

n=50 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −34.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−3.0

n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−3.0

n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−3.0

n=98 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −98.00

When favourite

22.2%

n=9 · A/E 0.95 · £1 −2.25

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

3%+0.0

n=1,837 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −826.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−3.0

n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 11.4% vs 3% · n=79

At Stratford 8.2% vs 3% · n=61

Off a 0-7-day break 6.5% vs 3% · n=371

At Ludlow 7.9% vs 3% · n=63

At Wolverhampton (AW) 7.5% vs 3% · n=53

With Gerard Galligan 7.1% vs 3% · n=70

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 959 26 2.7% −615.00

Hurdle 656 19 2.9% −277.25

Chase 556 21 3.8% −47.50

NH Flat 36 0 0% −36.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 792 29 3.7% −264.50

Standard (AW) 505 15 3% −353.00

Good to Firm 366 14 3.8% −134.00

Good to Soft 272 5 1.8% −9.50

Soft 224 3 1.3% −166.75

Heavy 39 0 0% −39.00

Firm 9 0 0% −9.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Southwell (AW) 447 11 2.5% −342.25

Market Rasen 395 7 1.8% −212.00

Fakenham 152 4 2.6% −111.00

Southwell 147 3 2% −110.50

Cartmel 143 8 5.6% +38.75

Leicester 87 4 4.6% −11.00

Beverley 82 3 3.7% −29.00

Catterick 80 1 1.3% −46.00

Huntingdon 74 2 2.7% −33.00

Ludlow 63 5 7.9% +64.75

Stratford 61 5 8.2% +129.00

Wolverhampton (AW) 53 4 7.5% −5.75

Nottingham 39 0 0% −39.00

Windsor 38 0 0% −38.00

Thirsk 34 0 0% −34.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 793 25 3.2% −181.50

Class 6 619 16 2.6% −391.00

Class 4 618 19 3.1% −357.75

Class 3 120 5 4.2% +7.00

Class 1 22 0 0% −22.00

Class 2 21 0 0% −21.00

Class 7 14 1 7.1% −9.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 13 4 30.8% 1.34 +1.50

2nd–3rd fav 133 12 9% 0.64 −74.75

4th–6th fav 591 28 4.7% 0.91 −298.50

7th+ in betting 1,470 22 1.5% 0.70 −604.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

1m5f – 2m 527 16 3% −236.75

2m1f – 2m4f 417 12 2.9% −273.75

2m5f – 3m 335 10 3% −34.50

6f – 7f 318 11 3.5% −166.00

1m2f – 1m4f 254 3 1.2% −225.25

1m – 1m1f 205 6 2.9% −137.75

Under 6f 79 5 6.3% +6.00

Over 3m 72 3 4.2% +92.25

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 272 6 2.2% −200.25

2009 316 10 3.2% −185.75

2010 250 5 2% −207.00

2011 204 8 3.9% −117.75

2012 205 10 4.9% −21.75

2013 157 8 5.1% −6.75

2014 166 12 7.2% +8.50

2015 117 2 1.7% −100.00

2016 100 2 2% −38.00

2017 84 0 0% −84.00

2018 69 1 1.4% +12.00

2019 27 0 0% −27.00

2020 19 0 0% −19.00

2021 49 0 0% −49.00

2022 35 0 0% −35.00

2023 47 1 2.1% +34.00

2024 46 1 2.2% +105.00

2025 27 0 0% −27.00

2026 17 0 0% −17.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 1,541 56 3.6% −422.25

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

8-10 runners 755 24 3.2% −168.00

11-13 runners 602 15 2.5% −373.25

5-7 runners 521 19 3.6% −300.00

14-16 runners 245 4 1.6% −64.00

2-4 runners 54 4 7.4% −40.50

17+ runners 30 0 0% −30.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Monzino (USA) 124 6 10 11 Mar 20

Feeling Peckish (USA) 124 1 13 23 Apr 17

Peak Seasons (IRE)from William de Best-Turner 121 7 20 4 Jun 17

Galley Slave (IRE)from Pam Sly 116 5 29 21 Jul 14

L'es Fremantle (FR) 104 1 5 1 Aug 23

Kheskianto (IRE)from Marco Botti 84 1 10 26 Sep 17

Orpen Wide (IRE) 84 5 12 2 Oct 13

The Society Man (IRE)from Sarah-Jayne Davies 82 0 9 19 Oct 19

Mazovian (USA)then Neil Mulholland 66 5 16 28 Mar 15

Vogarth (GB)from Rod Millman 63 0 2 11 Aug 14

Fast Deal (GB)from Tim Easterby 58 1 3 26 Sep 26

Tayarat (IRE)from Evan Williams 58 6 8 22 Nov 18

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 90 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 8 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 43 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mark Johnston (3) and Alice Haynes (2); 17 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard; 48 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

342524433431

Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderLee Vickers

9% of all rides
3.4% SR · A/E 0.98

RiderRWSR£1

Lee Vickers 207 7 3.4% −84.50

Joe Cornwall 183 8 4.4% −63.00

Alice Mills 114 4 3.5% +19.50

Steven Gagan 76 2 2.6% −65.75

Gerard Galligan 70 5 7.1% −7.00

Mark Coumbe 53 1 1.9% −44.00

Andrew Heffernan 47 1 2.1% −36.00

Russ Kennemore 36 1 2.8% −23.00

Robert L Butler 34 2 5.9% −22.00

Ollie Garner 34 1 2.9% −27.50

Paul Booth 31 2 6.5% −1.25

Danielle Mooney 30 2 6.7% +30.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

110

Archived wins

£781k

Prize money

2006

Best season · 25 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Epee Celeste (FR) — Crabbie's Alcoholic Ginger Beer Handicap Chase Cartmel · Jul 2012 · Class 3

£9,747

Orpen Wide (IRE) — Ritz Club Novices' Chase Ascot · Apr 2008 · Class 3

£9,393

Siegfrieds Night (IRE) — Ladies Night Handicap Hurdle Southwell · Jun 2006 · Class 3

£7,807

Notable horses

Orpen Wide (IRE) Peak Seasons (IRE) Monzino (USA) Tayarat (IRE) Galley Slave (IRE) Mazovian (USA)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Orpen (USA) 3.2% · 6–188

Progeny have won 9% of 4,038 runs since 2008 (381 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.4% from 113.

More Than Ready (USA) 4.8% · 6–124

Progeny have won 10.5% of 1,720 runs since 2008 (180 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.4% from 135. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.6% from 110. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.5% from 122.

Point Given (USA) 0.8% · 1–124

Progeny have won 3.5% of 254 runs since 2008 (15 horses).

Raise A Grand (IRE) 5.8% · 7–121

Progeny have won 7.5% of 811 runs since 2008 (50 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13.9% from 115.

Spartacus (IRE) 4.3% · 5–116

Progeny have won 6.5% of 1,325 runs since 2008 (113 horses).

Kheleyf (USA) 1.2% · 1–84

Progeny have won 8.7% of 10,549 runs since 2008 (676 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 12.2% from 131. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 880.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,196 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,196 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 4 January 2005 to 26 September 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

26 Sep 26 Market Rasen Destination Unkown (IRE)J: Mr Joseph Stevenson Agriculture Raceday Returns On 12th November Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 23f · Good · 10 ran 8th 300/1

26 Sep 26 Market Rasen Fast Deal (GB)J: Mr Joseph Stevenson Dine In Altior's Restaurant Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good · 7 ran 7th 100/1

31 Aug 26 Ripon Cougar (JPN)J: Miss S L Watson Aja Amateur Jockeys' Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Soft · 10 ran 7th 150/1

29 Aug 26 Cartmel Fast Deal (GB)J: James Best Cengiz Sadik Memorial Handicap Steeple Chase (For The Cengiz Sadik Memorial Trophy)Class 5 · 21f · Good · 11 ran 9th 66/1

29 Aug 26 Cartmel Destination Unkown (IRE)J: James Best RF Miller & Co Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 9 ran 9th 300/1

15 Aug 26 Market Rasen Fast Deal (GB)J: James Best Oddschecker+ Subscription Service Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 6 ran 6th 50/1

15 Aug 26 Market Rasen Destination Unkown (IRE)J: James Best Bet Smarter With Oddschecker+ Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 3 ran 3rd 100/1

20 Jul 26 Cartmel Fast Deal (GB)J: James Best Old Park Wood Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 9 ran 6th 250/1

20 Jul 26 Cartmel Destination Unkown (IRE)J: James Best Cumbria Grand Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 8 ran 7th 200/1

15 Jul 26 Catterick Cougar (JPN)J: Miss Sophia Watson AJA Novice Flat Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (For Riders With 3 Wins Or Fewer At Start Of Season)Class 5 · 12f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 5th 80/1

12 Jun 26 Market Rasen Fast Deal (GB)J: James Best Rebecca Brooks Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19f · Good · 6 ran 6th 250/1

23 May 26 Cartmel Fast Deal (GB)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Molson Coors Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 25.5f · Good · 9 ran 8th 125/1

23 May 26 Cartmel Raincloud (GB)J: Miss Ellie Callwood Cartmel Sticky Toffee Pudding Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 22f · Good · 10 ran 8th 200/1

05 Apr 26 Market Rasen Raincloud (GB)J: Ben Poste Mariner Packaging Sing When We're Fishing Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 10 ran 8th 100/1

05 Apr 26 Market Rasen Destination Unkown (IRE)J: Ben Poste Live Racing Streaming At CopyBet Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good · 5 ran PU 300/1

20 Jan 26 Southwell (AW) Destination Unkown (IRE)J: Sean D Bowen Midnite Aint Your Grandad's Bookie Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 14f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 300/1

06 Jan 26 Southwell (AW) Destination Unkown (IRE)J: Aiden Brookes Make The Move To Midnite Classified Stakes (Div 1)Class 6 · 11f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 150/1

26 Dec 25 Market Rasen Fast Deal (GB)J: Alan Doyle Rand Farm Park All Weather Attraction Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 125/1

26 Dec 25 Market Rasen Destination Unkown (IRE)J: Alan Doyle Pallinc Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 200/1

14 Dec 25 Southwell Raincloud (GB)J: James Best attheraces.com/marketmovers Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 200/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Michael Chapman's strike rate?: Michael Chapman has won 66 of 2,207 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Michael Chapman do best at?: Stratford by strike rate: 5 wins from 61 runners (8.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Michael Chapman?: Lee Vickers, with 207 runners since 2008 — 9% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (3.4%).
What is Michael Chapman's Fair A/E?: 0.79, from 2,200 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.