What is Michael J McDonagh's strike rate?

Michael J McDonagh has won 49 of 921 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.3% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Michael J McDonagh do best at?

Limerick by strike rate: 16 wins from 143 runners (11.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Michael J McDonagh?

Cathal Landers, with 129 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (5.4%).

Is Michael J McDonagh in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Michael J McDonagh's Fair A/E?

0.93, from 917 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Michael J McDonagh

921 runners in the lifetime window · 82 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 2 days ago 99% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

49–921

Wins / Runs

5.3%

Strike rate

n=921

170 (19%)

Placed

0.93

Fair A/E

n=917 · 0.74 incl. margin

−481.27

£1 level stake

n=917 at SP · −52.5%

£693k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 50 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.93).

Deterministic profile computed from 921 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–Apr 30.6% when favourite Cathal Landers: 5.4% from 129 Sends off the favourite in 4% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Limerick (11.2%, n=143), clear of the yard's 5.3% baseline. It is weakest at Cork (0% over 63 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 0% (n=61, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 1% strike, Fair A/E 0.27 and −161.00 to a £1 stake over 200 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Cathal Landers rides 14% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (5.4%, A/E 1.12) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in Chase races (9.2%, n=336) and off a 8-14-day break (9.7%, n=154). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Campion Insurance Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase at Limerick (Dec 2023, £26,550). The stable star of the record: Black Zero (IRE) — 7 wins from 62 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

1%−4.3

n=200 · A/E 0.27 · £1 −161.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−5.3

n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00

Debutants · first career start

0%−5.3

n=61 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −60.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

2.1%−3.2

n=47 · A/E 0.65 · £1 −30.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

4.5%−0.8

n=67 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −45.00

When favourite

30.6%

n=36 · A/E 1.32 · £1 −1.77

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

4.2%−1.1

n=424 · A/E 0.84 · £1 −253.68

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.5%−0.8

n=22 · A/E 0.61 · £1 −14.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With C&D winners 19.1% vs 5.3% · n=47

At Limerick 11.2% vs 5.3% · n=143

With David Splaine 12.5% vs 5.3% · n=32

In Chase races 9.2% vs 5.3% · n=336

Off a 8-14-day break 9.7% vs 5.3% · n=154

At Cork 0% vs 5.3% · n=63

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 564 18 3.2% −376.98

Chase 336 31 9.2% −87.29

NH Flat 15 0 0% −15.00

Flat 6 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 374 20 5.3% −196.50

Heavy 275 20 7.3% −109.27

Good 171 6 3.5% −100.00

Good to Soft 83 2 2.4% −65.50

Good to Firm 16 1 6.3% −9.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Standard (AW) 1 0 0% —

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Limerick 143 16 11.2% +1.32

Ballinrobe 68 1 1.5% −51.00

Cork 63 0 0% −63.00

Gowran Park 62 4 6.5% −33.09

Galway 61 1 1.6% −53.00

Thurles 59 4 6.8% −22.25

Fairyhouse 53 1 1.9% −40.00

Clonmel 51 4 7.8% −10.25

Naas 45 2 4.4% −32.00

Punchestown 43 1 2.3% −39.25

Tipperary 41 2 4.9% −16.75

Navan 38 1 2.6% −34.50

Roscommon 34 1 2.9% −27.00

Listowel 31 0 0% −31.00

Wexford 25 2 8% −8.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 22 1 4.5% −14.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 48 12 25% 1.16 −10.02

2nd–3rd fav 95 13 13.7% 1.05 −11.25

4th–6th fav 171 15 8.8% 1.15 −18.00

7th+ in betting 603 9 1.5% 0.54 −442.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Distance

DistanceRWSR£1

2m1f – 2m4f 421 29 6.9% −181.22

1m5f – 2m 263 5 1.9% −226.00

2m5f – 3m 212 13 6.1% −69.55

Over 3m 21 2 9.5% −4.50

1m2f – 1m4f 2 0 0% —

1m – 1m1f 2 0 0% —

By season

By seasonRWSR£1

2008 41 0 0% −41.00

2009 32 1 3.1% −11.00

2010 21 0 0% −21.00

2011 17 0 0% −13.00

2012 33 1 3% −24.00

2013 44 3 6.8% −12.00

2014 47 4 8.5% −28.75

2015 36 0 0% −36.00

2016 57 4 7% +2.00

2017 63 4 6.3% −27.00

2018 50 3 6% −33.75

2019 43 1 2.3% −26.00

2020 58 2 3.4% −44.00

2021 69 5 7.2% −31.43

2022 74 4 5.4% −36.75

2023 71 9 12.7% −19.39

2024 69 1 1.4% −57.00

2025 59 4 6.8% −8.20

2026 37 3 8.1% −13.00

Handicaps

HandicapsRWSR£1

Handicaps 605 45 7.4% −202.09

Field size

Field sizeRWSR£1

14-16 runners 295 11 3.7% −177.95

17+ runners 259 4 1.5% −228.43

11-13 runners 194 19 9.8% −28.05

8-10 runners 132 12 9.1% −40.50

5-7 runners 36 3 8.3% −5.34

2-4 runners 5 0 0% −1.00

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

83.3% completed · 900 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 336 77.7% 15 12 46 1 1

Hurdle 564 86.7% 6 4 63 2 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Black Zero (IRE) 62 7 22 24 Mar 18

Spancil Hill (IRE)from C F Swan · then T G McCourt 57 5 13 22 Feb 22

Fly De Megaudais (FR) 56 3 9 5 Oct 24

Krabat (IRE) 44 3 18 25 May 26

Nazine (IRE) 38 1 7 18 Nov 25

Happy Dreams (FR) 37 7 14 8 Mar 26

Battle Of Mirbat (IRE)from Kieran Purcell 28 3 9 21 May 26

Positive Thinker (IRE) 27 3 16 1 Nov 26

Crazywork De Vassy (FR) 26 2 6 5 Sep 22

Chainofconsequence (IRE)from Aengus King 25 2 7 1 Apr 25

Letterlee Star (IRE) 25 3 7 14 Feb 13

Wildcatted (GER) 24 4 4 27 Oct 18

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 82 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from C A Murphy (2); 47 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard; 57 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 5

Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1811919241577

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderCathal Landers

14% of all rides
5.4% SR · A/E 1.12

RiderRWSR£1

Cathal Landers 129 7 5.4% −74.25

Cian Quirke 91 5 5.5% −39.00

Sean O'Keeffe 90 6 6.7% −54.29

Mark Enright 73 4 5.5% −37.00

Brian O'Connell 57 3 5.3% −26.00

Mark McDonagh 52 2 3.8% −39.00

Sean McDermott 39 1 2.6% −18.00

Barry Browne 38 4 10.5% −17.43

David Splaine 32 4 12.5% +20.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£730k

Prize money

2023

Best season · 9 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Happy Dreams (FR) — Campion Insurance Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase (0-150) (Listed) Limerick · Dec 2023 · Listed

£26,550

Black Zero (IRE) — Buy Twilight Racing Tickets Online Handicap Chase Limerick · Mar 2017

£15,375

Wildcatted (GER) — At The Races Mullacurry Cup Handicap Hurdle Bellewstown · Aug 2016

£12,300

Notable horses

Black Zero (IRE) Happy Dreams (FR) Spancil Hill (IRE) Wildcatted (GER) Fly De Megaudais (FR) Krabat (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Ocovango (GB) 9% · 8–89

Progeny have won 9.5% of 3,007 runs since 2019 (307 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 13.8% from 196.

Blueprint (IRE) 11.3% · 7–62

Progeny have won 9.9% of 1,670 runs since 2008 (137 horses).

Flemensfirth (USA) 8.8% · 5–57

Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,285 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

Bonbon Rose (FR) 5.4% · 3–56

Progeny have won 13.3% of 465 runs since 2010 (45 horses).

Shirocco (GER) 7.7% · 4–52

Progeny have won 11.2% of 9,180 runs since 2010 (921 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.

Aolus (GER) 6.8% · 3–44

Progeny have won 6.3% of 63 runs since 2012 (4 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,022 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,022 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 January 2005 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Sunrise Strider (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Ballymaloe Foods Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 21 ran 18th 33/1

01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Positive Thinker (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Paddy Power Cork Grand National Handicap Steeplechase28f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran PU 18/1

25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Kiltinan (IRE)J: Eoin Staples Glenlo Abbey Hotel & Estate Maiden Hurdle21.5f · Soft · 12 ran 8th 66/1

25 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Springboard (IRE)J: Mark Walsh Brasserie On The Corner Handicap Steeplechase18f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 9th 5/2

22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Stily (FR)J: Sean O'Keeffe Clonmel Oil Chase Day November 5th Handicap Steeplechase21f · Good · 15 ran 3rd 11/2

18 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Positive Thinker (IRE)J: Cian Quirke BOYLE Sports JT McNamara Munster National Handicap Steeplechase (Grade 3)Class 1 · 24f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 7th 33/1

17 Oct 26 Limerick (IRE) Sunrise Strider (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Greenpark Limerick Handicap Hurdle (Div II)21.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 10th 25/1

11 Oct 26 Cork (IRE) Stily (FR)J: Cian Quirke Kendellen Construction Handicap Hurdle18.5f · Good · 14 ran 4th 8/1

06 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) Springboard (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Ryans Cleaning Handicap Steeplechase18f · Yielding To Soft · 10 ran 1st 7/1

06 Oct 26 Galway (IRE) N Kelleher (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Tote Always SP Or Better At Galway Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Yielding · 20 ran 18th 200/1

02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Positive Thinker (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 14 ran 11th 20/1

28 Sep 26 Roscommon (IRE) Stily (FR)J: Cian Quirke Railway Bar Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 6th 10/1

23 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Springboard (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Brandon Hotel Handicap Hurdle18f · Good · 18 ran 5th 33/1

28 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Stily (FR)J: Philip Donovan Dan & Breda Byrne Memorial Handicap Steeplechase19.5f · Yielding · 9 ran 6th 12/1

03 Aug 26 Cork (IRE) Stily (FR)J: Alan O'Sullivan Follow Us On Instagram Handicap Hurdle (Div I)17f · Good · 16 ran 6th 10/1

29 Jul 26 Galway (IRE) Kiltinan (IRE)J: Alan O'Sullivan Tote Guaranteed 50K Placepot Maiden Hurdle22f · Good · 20 ran PU 50/1

25 May 26 Ballinrobe Krabat (IRE)J: Cian Quirke McHale F5 Range Veterans Handicap Chase19.5f · Good · 13 ran 7th 28/1

21 May 26 Limerick Battle Of Mirbat (IRE)J: Sean O'Keeffe Bet With Tote On Racing & Sports Handicap Chase24.5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 4/1

21 May 26 Limerick Springboard (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Maloney's Bus Hire & Martin's Coaches Handicap Chase20f · Good To Yielding · 11 ran 9th 4/1J

21 May 26 Limerick Stily (FR)J: Sean O'Keeffe Calor Gas Handicap Chase (0-100)17.5f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran PU 11/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Michael J McDonagh's strike rate?: Michael J McDonagh has won 49 of 921 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.3% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Michael J McDonagh do best at?: Limerick by strike rate: 16 wins from 143 runners (11.2%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Michael J McDonagh?: Cathal Landers, with 129 runners since 2008 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (5.4%).
Is Michael J McDonagh in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Michael J McDonagh's Fair A/E?: 0.93, from 917 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.