Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 15% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.48).
Deterministic profile computed from 271 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 24 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceHenry Brooke: 22% from 59
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 5.4% (n=56, Fair A/E 0.85). Henry Brooke rides 22% of the entries and beats the yard's average (22% vs 15.1%, A/E 1.65) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in Class 3 (27.3%, n=33). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 6.5% over 31 runners, 8.6pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Castletown Handicap Hurdle at Carlisle (Nov 2023, £20,812). The stable star of the record: Fingal's Hill (IRE) — 9 wins from 31 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 15.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.4%−9.7
n=56 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −37.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−15.1
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
30.8%+15.7
n=13 · A/E 4.08 · £1 +62.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−15.1
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
50%+34.9
n=2 · A/E 4.18 · £1 +3.00
When favourite
43.8%
n=16 · A/E 1.43 · £1 +4.32
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
13.1%−2.0
n=61 · A/E 1.56 · £1 +37.83
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
7.1%−8.0
n=14 · A/E 0.73 · £1 −8.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Class 327.3% vs 15.1% · n=33
Off a break of 180+ days6.5% vs 15.1% · n=31
With Henry Brooke22% vs 15.1% · n=59
On last-time-out winners22.5% vs 15.1% · n=40
Over 2m5f – 3m9.3% vs 15.1% · n=54
With C&D winners10.7% vs 15.1% · n=56
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle1802614.4%−26.27
Chase56916.1%−4.00
NH Flat35617.1%+51.50
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good1001818%+48.90
Good to Soft78911.5%−27.50
Soft56814.3%+8.00
Heavy24416.7%−1.67
Good to Firm8112.5%−5.00
Standard (AW)5120%−1.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle53815.1%−9.92
Hexham35617.1%+0.33
Catterick34514.7%+12.50
Sedgefield27518.5%+8.00
Doncaster19421.1%−1.00
Wetherby1715.9%−8.00
Market Rasen15213.3%−3.50
Kelso1417.1%−11.00
Carlisle13215.4%+38.00
Aintree12216.7%+2.00
Ayr600%−6.00
Cartmel4125%−2.38
Cheltenham4125%+2.00
Musselburgh4125%+4.50
Haydock400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 41221713.9%−16.18
Class 557814%+6.83
Class 333927.3%+9.08
Class 229413.8%−1.00
Class 11516.7%−9.00
Class 615213.3%+31.50
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite19842.1%1.46+4.82
2nd–3rd fav631828.6%1.49+34.41
4th–6th fav851315.3%1.87+22.00
7th+ in betting10421.9%0.64−40.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f1202117.5%+44.70
1m5f – 2m851517.6%+11.70
2m5f – 3m5459.3%−23.17
Over 3m1200%−12.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200812216.7%+0.33
20091800%−18.00
20102528%+25.00
20111200%−12.00
20128112.5%+3.00
201317529.4%+23.50
20146116.7%−4.00
20154250%+7.00
20166350%+13.00
201716531.3%−1.18
201818211.1%−8.50
201916212.5%−5.00
20208112.5%+15.00
20212214.5%−18.50
202215213.3%−7.17
202316637.5%+22.50
20241616.3%−7.50
202521523.8%+8.75
20261500%−15.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1672816.8%+10.91
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners881618.2%+15.33
11-13 runners6623%−52.67
5-7 runners631727%+33.45
14-16 runners3438.8%+35.50
2-4 runners11218.2%−7.38
17+ runners9111.1%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 19 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 19 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Ms Lucinda Broad (2); 15 had their first archived run for this yard.
3 have since run for another yard; 16 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
991215328181733291319
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
42
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£391k
Prize money
2023
Best season · 6 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Fingal's Hill (IRE) — Castletown Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Carlisle · Nov 2023 · Class 2
£20,812
Irish Roe (IRE) — Follow RacingTV On Twitter Handicap Hurdle Aintree · May 2019 · Class 2
£12,512
Irish Roe (IRE) — Bet365 Handicap Hurdle Doncaster · Dec 2017 · Class 2
Progeny have won 11.2% of 9,167 runs since 2008 (921 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.
Daylami (IRE)14.8% · 4–27
Progeny have won 10.6% of 3,508 runs since 2008 (253 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.4% from 109.
Lend A Hand (GB)24% · 6–25
Progeny have won 7.4% of 1,088 runs since 2008 (89 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 11.5% from 130. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.3% from 188.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 24 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 323 · newest first
The latest 50 of 323 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 10 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Peter Atkinson's strike rate?
Peter Atkinson has won 41 of 271 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.1% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Peter Atkinson do best at?
Hexham by strike rate: 6 wins from 35 runners (17.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Peter Atkinson?
Henry Brooke, with 59 runners since 2008 — 22% of the total. That pairing has won 13 (22%).
What is Peter Atkinson's Fair A/E?
1.48, from 269 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Peter Atkinson·SR 15.1%·A/E 1.48
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