Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.64). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 16% off breaks of two months or more (31 runs).
Deterministic profile computed from 113 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 16.1%Claiming riders: 12%
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 16.1% (n=31, Fair A/E 5.04). The yard also reads well on Good going (12.8%, n=39) and off a 31-60-day break (12.5%, n=32). The record reads poorly over 2m1f – 2m4f — 4.1% over 49 runners, 4.7pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Building Bridges (GB) — 6 wins from 28 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
16.1%+7.3
n=31 · A/E 5.04 · £1 +77.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
6.7%−2.1
n=15 · A/E 1.29 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−8.8
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.8
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
40%+31.2
n=5 · A/E 4.07 · £1 +12.50
When favourite
14.3%
n=7 · A/E 0.67 · £1 −4.62
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
12%+3.2
n=75 · A/E 2.09 · £1 +62.88
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.8
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Mr O McGill17.6% vs 8.8% · n=34
With a new jockey booking3.1% vs 8.8% · n=65
Over 2m1f – 2m4f4.1% vs 8.8% · n=49
On Good going12.8% vs 8.8% · n=39
With claiming riders up12% vs 8.8% · n=75
Off a 31-60-day break12.5% vs 8.8% · n=32
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle80810%+55.50
Flat2214.5%−10.00
Chase6116.7%−3.62
NH Flat500%−5.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Soft4548.9%+25.50
Good39512.8%−0.62
Good to Soft1915.3%+22.00
Heavy700%−7.00
Standard (AW)200%−2.00
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Downpatrick2229.1%+9.38
Navan1218.3%+11.00
Galway10110%+31.00
Down Royal10110%+3.00
Punchestown800%−8.00
Bellewstown8112.5%+4.00
Sligo6116.7%+1.00
Fairyhouse600%−6.00
Naas500%−5.00
Leopardstown400%−4.00
Thurles300%−3.00
Wexford (IRE)200%−2.00
Dundalk (AW)200%−2.00
Perth2150%+2.00
Roscommon200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1500%−5.00
Class 4300%−3.00
Class 32150%+2.00
Class 2100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite7114.3%0.67−4.62
2nd–3rd fav15213.3%1.00−5.50
4th–6th fav18211.1%2.00+2.00
7th+ in betting7356.8%3.13+45.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f4924.1%−29.00
1m5f – 2m30310%+11.50
2m5f – 3m24416.7%+52.38
1m2f – 1m4f7114.3%+5.00
1m – 1m1f200%−2.00
Over 3m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202223313%+36.00
202315213.3%+39.00
202413323.1%+16.00
20252813.6%−22.50
20263412.9%−31.62
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps68913.2%+79.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners3912.6%−33.50
17+ runners29310.3%+48.00
11-13 runners2328.7%+19.00
8-10 runners15213.3%+4.00
5-7 runners7228.6%−0.62
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 31 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 31 horses listed, 17 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Gavin Cromwell (2) and Noel C Kelly (2); 14 had their first archived run for this yard.
6 have since run for another yard; 25 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
02500101899801111
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 11.7% of 2,122 runs since 2008 (265 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 316. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 7.9% from 190.
Fastnet Rock (AUS)0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 12.1% of 5,479 runs since 2008 (556 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9% from 211.
Progeny have won 11.8% of 585 runs since 2008 (65 horses). Strongest on Good going: 16.2% from 234. Weakest on Soft going: 7.2% from 166.
Dubai Destination (USA)16.7% · 1–6
Progeny have won 11% of 6,950 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.9% from 136.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 208 · newest first
The latest 50 of 208 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 December 2018 to 19 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Gary McGill's strike rate?
Gary McGill has won 10 of 113 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.8% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Gary McGill in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Gary McGill's Fair A/E?
1.64, from 113 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Gary McGill·SR 8.8%·A/E 1.64
KTB
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