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Trainer profile

Thomas Carmody

147 runners in the lifetime window · 32 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner May 2013 100% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
24–147
Wins / Runs
16.3%
Strike rate
n=147
52 (35%)
Placed
1.28
Fair A/E
n=147 · 1.00 incl. margin
+3.80
£1 level stake
n=147 at SP · +2.6%
£588k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
10.5%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 20 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 16% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.28).

Deterministic profile computed from 147 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026
The read

It is weakest at Dundalk (AW) (10% over 60 runners) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 12.9% (n=31, Fair A/E 1.01). The yard also read well on Soft going (30.6%, n=36). The record read poorly on Standard (AW) going — 10% over 60 runners, 6.3pts below the baseline. 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Gain Horse Feeds Irish St. Leger at Curragh (Sep 2012, £116,000).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 16.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
12.9%−3.4
n=31 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −4.75
New recruits · first run for the yard
12%−4.3
n=25 · A/E 0.93 · £1 −7.25
Debutants · first career start
0%−16.3
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
28.6%+12.3
n=7 · A/E 2.58 · £1 +19.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−16.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
When favourite
35%
n=20 · A/E 1.28 · £1 +0.05
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
17.4%+1.1
n=23 · A/E 1.27 · £1 +3.83
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
25%+8.7
n=12 · A/E 1.59 · £1 +18.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 16.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Soft going 30.6% vs 16.3% · n=36
At Dundalk (AW) 10% vs 16.3% · n=60
On Standard (AW) going 10% vs 16.3% · n=60
Over 1m – 1m1f 10.2% vs 16.3% · n=49
With a new jockey booking 12.3% vs 16.3% · n=73
With Johnny Murtagh 12.2% vs 16.3% · n=49
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 60 6 10% −39.42
Soft 36 11 30.6% +42.55
Heavy 26 5 19.2% +7.67
Good 12 1 8.3% +3.00
Good to Soft 11 0 0% −11.00
Good to Firm 2 1 50% +1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 60 6 10% −39.42
Curragh 25 5 20% +14.75
Leopardstown 14 3 21.4% +16.50
Navan 8 2 25% +15.00
Gowran Park 7 0 0% −7.00
Naas 4 0 0% −4.00
Wexford 3 2 66.7% +1.80
Ballinrobe 3 2 66.7% +1.17
Down Royal 3 0 0% −3.00
Fairyhouse 3 0 0% −3.00
Limerick 3 0 0% −3.00
Tipperary 2 0 0% −2.00
Roscommon 2 0 0% −2.00
Killarney 2 1 50% +4.00
Clonmel 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 12 3 25% +18.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 31 8 25.8% 1.03 −7.95
2nd–3rd fav 40 8 20% 1.29 −2.75
4th–6th fav 38 6 15.8% 1.86 +22.50
7th+ in betting 38 2 5.3% 1.26 −8.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Sherzam (GB)then J P Murtagh 10 0 3 6 May 13
Rasputin (IRE)from Michael Dods · then J P Murtagh 10 0 3 11 Jan 13
Sweet Lightning (GB)from Michael Dods · then J P Murtagh 9 1 3 12 May 13
Spirituality (IRE) 9 2 4 19 Oct 12
Benbecula (GB)from Richard Hannon Snr · then J P Murtagh 8 1 5 20 May 13
Manuka (IRE)then J P Murtagh 8 0 2 9 May 13
Royal Diamond (IRE)from Jonjo O'Neill · then J P Murtagh 7 2 6 17 May 13
Ursa Major (IRE)then J P Murtagh 7 4 5 15 Sep 12
Greatest (FR)from Sir Michael Stoute · then J P Murtagh 6 0 1 7 May 13
Seventh Sign (GB)from William Haggas · then Alan King 6 3 3 24 Oct 12
King of Dudes (GB)from Sir Henry Cecil · then Alan King 6 2 4 10 Oct 12
Hartside (GER)from Sir Michael Stoute · then Noel Meade 6 3 3 28 Aug 12
All 32 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 32 horses listed, 25 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Richard Hannon Snr (12) and Michael Dods (5); 7 had their first archived run for this yard.

24 have since run for another yard, most often for J P Murtagh (21) and Alan King (2); 8 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
81311216201835203300
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderJohnny Murtagh
33% of all rides
12.2% SR · A/E 0.82
RiderRWSR£1
Johnny Murtagh 49 6 12.2% −1.75
N G McCullagh 43 7 16.3% +6.75
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
24
Archived wins
3
Pattern / graded wins
£589k
Prize money
2012
Best season · 18 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Royal Diamond (IRE) — Gain Horse Feeds Irish St. Leger (Group 1) Curragh · Sep 2012 · Group 1
£116,000
Sweet Lightning (GB) — BetVictor Irish Lincolnshire (Premier Handicap) Curragh · Mar 2013
£60,000
Ursa Major (IRE) — Derby Festival Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Handicap Curragh · Jun 2012
£42,000
Notable horses
Ursa Major (IRE) Seventh Sign (GB) Hartside (GER) Spirituality (IRE) Royal Diamond (IRE) King of Dudes (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Galileo (IRE) 25% · 5–20
Progeny have won 14.5% of 18,192 runs since 2008 (1,776 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.2% from 1,383. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.3% from 889.
Exceed and Excel (AUS) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 11.9% of 16,025 runs since 2008 (1,161 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 20.7% from 198. Weakest on Soft going: 7.9% from 1,194.
King's Best (USA) 30% · 3–10
Progeny have won 9.9% of 7,763 runs since 2008 (574 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 6.8% from 249.
Marju (IRE) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 10.2% of 3,553 runs since 2008 (286 horses).
Fantastic Light (USA) 11.1% · 1–9
Progeny have won 9.9% of 3,570 runs since 2008 (223 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 5.8% from 377.
Invincible Spirit (IRE) 22.2% · 2–9
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,818 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 160 · newest first

The latest 50 of 160 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 February 2005 to 20 May 2013.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
20 May 13 Roscommon Benbecula (GB)J: N G McCullagh Connolly's Red Mills Horse Care Cubes Handicap (50-80)11.5f · Soft To Heavy · 12 ran 5th 4/1
17 May 13 York Royal Diamond (IRE)J: N G McCullagh Qipco Yorkshire Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2)Class 1 · 14f · Soft · 8 ran 3rd 11/1
15 May 13 Naas Ask Dad (GB)J: Johnny Murtagh Woodlands 100 Club Handicap6f · Yielding To Soft · 18 ran 11th 7/1
12 May 13 Leopardstown Sweet Lightning (GB)J: Johnny Murtagh Amethyst Stakes (Group 3)8f · Yielding · 5 ran 3rd 3/1
09 May 13 Clonmel Dynastic (GB)J: Ben Curtis Tipperary Perpetual Cup Handicap (60-90)16.5f · Soft · 14 ran 9th 20/1
09 May 13 Clonmel Manuka (IRE)J: Ben Curtis West Gate Maiden16.5f · Soft · 14 ran 4th 3/1
07 May 13 Navan Greatest (FR)J: Johnny Murtagh Trim Handicap13f · Yielding · 14 ran 8th 7/2F
07 May 13 Navan Cyclone (GB)J: Johnny Murtagh Come To The Family Day May 19th Handicap10f · Yielding · 14 ran 1st 7/1
06 May 13 Curragh Benbecula (GB)J: Johnny Murtagh Club Bar Bistro At Keadeen Hotel Handicap (50-80)10f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 6th 4/1F
06 May 13 Curragh Sherzam (GB)J: Fergal Lynch P.G.Duffy & Sons Citroen Maiden6f · Yielding · 12 ran 5th 12/1
05 May 13 Limerick Energize (FR)J: Ben Curtis Great Limerick Run Maiden8f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 4th 13/2
03 May 13 Dundalk (AW) Dalandra (GB)J: N G McCullagh Louth Land Of Legends And Full Of Life Maiden10.5f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 33/1
02 May 13 Tipperary Municipal (IRE)J: N G McCullagh New Look Tipperary Racecourse Handicap (47-65)5f · Soft · 18 ran 8th 16/1
02 May 13 Tipperary Elastomer (FR)J: Johnny Murtagh Gathering At Tipperary August 22nd Maiden5f · Soft · 16 ran 7th 8/1
17 Apr 13 Dundalk (AW) Energize (FR)J: Johnny Murtagh Dundalk Stadium On Facebook Maiden10.5f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 5/1
15 Apr 13 Leopardstown Greatest (FR)J: N G McCullagh Leopardstown Intervarsity Colours Challenge Cup Handicap (47-75)14f · Soft · 15 ran 4th 14/1
15 Apr 13 Leopardstown Manuka (IRE)J: Ben Curtis Spin 1038 Rated Race12f · Soft · 7 ran 3rd 10/3
14 Apr 13 Leopardstown Sweet Lightning (GB)J: Johnny Murtagh Heritage Stakes (Listed)8f · Soft · 5 ran 4th 5/6F
14 Apr 13 Leopardstown Fort Knox (GB)J: Johnny Murtagh Leopardstown 2,000 Guineas Trial Stakes (Listed)8f · Soft · 8 ran 1st 7/1
11 Apr 13 Limerick Rich Coast (GB)J: Johnny Murtagh Summer Twilight Nights Race12.5f · Heavy · 4 ran 4th 4/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Thomas Carmody's strike rate?
Thomas Carmody has won 24 of 147 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 16.3% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Thomas Carmody do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 6 wins from 60 runners (10%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Thomas Carmody's Fair A/E?
1.28, from 147 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).