Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 1% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.65).
Deterministic profile computed from 149 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 4 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFresh horses: 2%Claiming riders: 2.6%
The read
The yard also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (4.3%, n=47). The market has consistently overbet the yard in Flat races: Fair A/E 0.00 across 60 runners (0% strike, −60.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 1.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2%+0.7
n=51 · A/E 1.31 · £1 +0.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−1.3
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−1.3
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−1.3
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−1.3
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.6%+1.3
n=76 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −22.38
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−1.3
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Over 1m5f – 2m4.3% vs 1.3% · n=47
In Flat races0% vs 1.3% · n=60 · A/E 0.00
In Class 50% vs 1.3% · n=59 · A/E 0.00
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat6000%−60.00
Hurdle4800%−48.00
Chase2827.1%+25.62
NH Flat1300%−13.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good4412.3%−41.38
Standard (AW)3200%−32.00
Good to Soft2813.6%+23.00
Good to Firm2200%−22.00
Soft1600%−16.00
Heavy700%−7.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Lingfield (AW)2500%−25.00
Newbury2114.8%−18.38
Worcester1500%−15.00
Wincanton10110%+41.00
Windsor800%−8.00
Cheltenham600%−6.00
Kempton600%−6.00
Taunton500%−5.00
Warwick400%−4.00
Newcastle400%−4.00
Leicester400%−4.00
Huntingdon400%−4.00
Newton Abbot400%−4.00
Kempton (AW)300%−3.00
Stratford300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 55900%−59.00
Class 44412.3%+7.00
Class 61700%−17.00
Class 31417.1%−11.38
Class 1800%−8.00
Class 2700%−7.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite2150%1.25+0.62
2nd–3rd fav100%0.00−1.00
4th–6th fav3113.2%1.03+20.00
7th+ in betting11500%0.00−115.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m4724.3%+6.62
6f – 7f2500%−25.00
2m1f – 2m4f2000%−20.00
1m – 1m1f2000%−20.00
2m5f – 3m1800%−18.00
1m2f – 1m4f1200%−12.00
Over 3m700%−7.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20081600%−16.00
20091900%−19.00
20101100%−11.00
2013400%−4.00
2014600%−6.00
2015900%−9.00
2017100%−1.00
2018100%−1.00
2019700%−7.00
20201000%−10.00
20211200%−12.00
2022800%−8.00
202311218.2%+42.62
20241600%−16.00
20251400%−14.00
2026400%−4.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps6323.2%−9.38
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners5500%−55.00
8-10 runners3600%−36.00
5-7 runners3013.3%+21.00
14-16 runners1900%−19.00
2-4 runners6116.7%−3.38
17+ runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 21 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 21 horses listed, 4 arrived from another yard in our archive; 17 had their first archived run for this yard.
3 have since run for another yard, most often for Barry Brennan (2); 18 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0115000000000
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Calgary Tiger (GB) — West Berkshire Mencap Handicap Chase Newbury · Mar 2023 · Class 3
£9,585
Calgary Tiger (GB) — JenningsBet Eastleigh Novices' Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Wincanton · Feb 2023 · Class 4
£5,017
Peak Seasons (IRE) — Pettitts Animal Adventure Park At Reedham Selling Stakes Yarmouth · Jul 2006 · Class 6
Progeny have won 9.9% of 6,277 runs since 2012 (538 horses).
Auction House (USA)0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 6.8% of 1,734 runs since 2008 (142 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 10% from 100.
Lord Of Men (GB)0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 11% of 282 runs since 2008 (50 horses).
Largesse (GB)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 7.3% of 368 runs since 2008 (25 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 244 · newest first
The latest 50 of 244 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 January 2005 to 12 April 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is William de Best-Turner's strike rate?
William de Best-Turner has won 2 of 149 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 1.3% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is William de Best-Turner's Fair A/E?
0.65, from 149 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
William de Best-Turner·SR 1.3%·A/E 0.65
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