2:25 Doncaster
This Class 2 Pertemps Network Handicap over 1m2f43y at Doncaster on good to soft ground brings together an interesting mix of progressive three-year-olds, several of whom are stepping up or dropping in class. The KTB Fit Scores identify Knights Charge as the top-rated on 65, just ahead of Bourbon Blues on 62, with the remainder of the field tightly bunched from 59 down to 37. With no obvious front-runner in a steadily-run, tactical affair, positioning and timing will be key around the tight Doncaster turns.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy or well positioned from the inner draws is likely to pay. Several runners prefer to be held up, including the selection, Bourbon Blues and Spyce, while King Of Earth is more prominent. The key question is whether those coming from off the pace can weave their way through in a race that may not develop much early speed.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Knights Charge KTB Selection65/100
Knights Charge is a useful performer who has won both starts at this trip on good to soft ground. Stall one could be an advantage around here and the yard's solid 23 percent strike rate at Doncaster adds some confidence. Still only three runs in the book so there is scope for more improvement. Roger Varian and Shane Foley combine with a 1/6 record, the trainer showing a 23% strike rate at the track from 400 runs and the jockey an impressive 20% strike rate and A/E 2.73 from five rides at Doncaster. The colt is held up, usually producing his effort late, though that assessment carries limited evidence and low confidence. He steps up in class having shown strong recent form figures of 3-11.
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2Bourbon Blues62/100
Bourbon Blues is a useful performer who has run well on good to soft, finishing placed once from three starts on the surface. He has won over today's trip and his recent form includes a solid second at this level, though he can be inconsistent. Brian Meehan has a 10% strike rate at Doncaster while Ryan Moore is aboard for the first run here. The pair have a strong 28/127 record together with an A/E of 1.42 and positive LSP of +£44.42. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence in that run-style, he arrives with form figures of 306023 from six starts this year. The three-year-old has no course form on record.
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3Runman59/100
Runman is a useful performer who has won two of his five starts including at this trip. He showed smart form when landing a similar race here last time and holds strong claims again from a good draw. Trainer John & Thady Gosden have a solid 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 162 runs. The combination with Oisin Murphy reads well on paper with a 46/175 record, though the A/E sits at 0.89. Typically settling in midfield with medium confidence, he steps up in class off recent form figures of 1-1401. He has had just one run on good to soft with no win or place.
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4Spyce57/100
Spyce is a useful performer who has shown consistent form without winning at this trip in four starts. He acts on good to soft ground and has the benefit of a positive trainer record at Doncaster. Stall 10 is a slight negative from a wide draw in a competitive race. Alan King and Rossa Ryan team up with a 44/267 record and A/E of 1.10. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he has recent form figures of 14-549. The three-year-old has 1 win from 1 on good to soft with 1 placed.
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5King Of Earth53/100
King Of Earth is a useful 3-year-old with solid placed form at this track and a strong recent record that includes two wins. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. William Haggas has a 17% strike rate at Doncaster from 524 runs while Tom Marquand is yet to be assessed at the track. The pair combine with a 452/2107 record and A/E of 0.91. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead with medium confidence, he drops in class with recent form figures of -24110. He has placed once from two runs on good to soft and finished second on his only visit to the course.
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6Besieged52/100
Besieged is a useful performer with a solid recent record of 221 and already a winner over today's trip from two attempts. Lightly raced after just three runs so there is still scope for improvement but the wide draw in stall 11 is a clear negative. Harry Charlton has a 14% strike rate from 21 runs at Doncaster while Lewis Edmunds has limited experience at the track. Usually held up with limited evidence and low confidence, he steps up in class and remains unproven on good to soft.
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7Sintra48/100
Sintra is a fair 3-year-old with solid placed form and a win at today's trip from three attempts. He has been consistent in five runs this year and holds strong course connections through his trainer. The going remains an unknown with such a light record. Andrew Balding and Nicola Currie have a modest 4/53 record together. Usually held up with high confidence, his form reads 32317.
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8Strength Of Spirit44/100
Strength Of Spirit is a fair performer who has been in and out this year and showed his best when winning a handicap at York last month. He steps up in trip today having been only once tried at this distance, though he did win on good to soft ground from his one run on it. Burke has a modest 9% strike rate at Doncaster from a large sample. Usually held up with high confidence, his recent form is 893401 and he steps up in class.
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9Wild Thoughts43/100
Wild Thoughts is a fair performer who has shown useful form this year with two wins and a second from his first four starts before tailing off in better company. He is unproven on good to soft ground and was well held when tried over this trip last time. Trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Doncaster from 88 runs. Typically settling in midfield, his form reads 112792 and he steps up in class.
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10Stoneacre Donny39/100
Stoneacre Donny is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent form this year with a string of placed efforts and a win at this trip. He has already run well over course and distance when third here on his only visit and handles good to soft ground. The Tim Easterby yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Doncaster from a huge sample while Duran Fentiman is aboard. Usually held up with high confidence, his form is 323291 and he steps up in class.
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11Darius Dark37/100
Darius Dark is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last six starts. He drops back in trip to 1m2f today after his most recent effort over 1m5f, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from eight runs at Doncaster while the horse remains unproven on good to soft ground. Usually held up with high confidence, his recent form is 011104.
KTB verdict
Knights Charge is the KTB Selection. A useful performer who has won both starts at this trip on good to soft ground, he can benefit from stall one and the yard's solid record at Doncaster, with scope for more improvement from just three runs in the book. The selection looks to have the best blend of proven ability at the conditions and upside. Main dangers are Runman, who showed smart form when landing a similar race here last time from a good draw, and Bourbon Blues, whose solid second at this level and Ryan Moore booking command respect despite inconsistency.
KTB Selection Knights Charge
This is the narrative read of the 2:25 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest strike rate combination between trainer and jockey at Doncaster?
Knights Charge, with trainer Roger Varian showing 23% at the track and jockey Shane Foley recording 20% at Doncaster with an A/E of 2.73.
How many of the principals are stepping up in class?
Two of the top five principals, Knights Charge and Runman, are stepping up in class.
Which runner has course form at Doncaster and what was the result?
King Of Earth finished second on his only visit to the course, while Stoneacre Donny was third on his only visit.
Which horses are proven winners over the exact trip on good to soft ground?
Knights Charge has won both starts at this trip on good to soft, and Strength Of Spirit won on good to soft from his one run at the distance.
What is the combined trainer strike rate at Doncaster for the two highest-rated principals?
Roger Varian has a 23% strike rate at Doncaster while Brian Meehan has a 10% strike rate at the track.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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