1:50 Doncaster
This Class 5 classified stakes over a mile at Doncaster on good to soft ground brings together a field of 16 modest performers, several of whom are dropping in class while others step up in trip for the first time. The KTB Fit ratings identify a clear top horse on 61, with the next four principals tightly bunched between 50 and 53, suggesting a race where familiarity with the conditions and a favourable run style could prove decisive. Overall the numbers point to a contest that will be run at a strong pace and where hold-up types may be advantaged if the leaders pay for their exertions late on.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, the race is expected to be contested up front at a solid gallop from the outset. Clatford and Espona Bay are both noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, which should ensure an honest test. This sets up a scenario in which the pace could collapse in the final furlong, favouring those coming from mid-division or held up off the speed. The key question is whether any prominent runners can withstand the early pressure or if the race will fall into the lap of the patient hold-up brigade.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Nyman KTB Selection61/100
Nyman is a modest performer who has been in and out this year yet showed his best effort when winning a 7f handicap at Thirsk last time out. He is dropping in class today and steps up to a mile for the first time having only placed without winning at the trip before, while his sole run here saw him finish ninth. The trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at Doncaster from 170 runs and the jockey posts a 16% strike rate at the track from 143 rides. He handles good to soft ground well with two wins from two starts on it. Typically settling in midfield, Nyman should be ideally placed to capitalise if the strong pace collapses late on. The KTB Selection.
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2Wield53/100
Wield is a modest performer who has shown some consistency this year with placed efforts on two of his seven starts. He has been placed at this trip without winning and holds solid course connections through his trainer who has a 20% strike rate at Doncaster from 15 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited to the anticipated strong pace that could collapse. The small sample on good to soft means his ground preference remains unclear, which adds an element of risk. His recent form of 325072 suggests he can be thereabouts without necessarily taking the prize.
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3Anthropologist52/100
Anthropologist is a modest performer who has been consistent enough of late without winning, finishing in the first four in three of his last four starts. He has form on good to soft but is 0-3 on it, while his sole visit to Doncaster produced a modest fifth. Stepping up to 1m today having won once over the trip from six attempts, he will be ridden from off the pace as a usual hold-up type. The yard's 10% strike rate here from 86 runs offers only limited encouragement, yet the jockey's 16% strike rate and A/E of 1.47 from 45 rides at the track provide a more positive angle. Recent form of 648432 underlines his reliability at this level.
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4Celtic Chariot52/100
Celtic Chariot is a modest performer who has won two of his last four starts including a victory here over this trip. Drawn in stall one which should help him get a good position early, although as a usual hold-up type he may still settle off the pace. The trainer has a solid 25% strike rate at the track from a small but positive sample of eight runs. He remains unproven on good to soft ground, which is the main question mark today. Recent form of 664116 shows clear signs of progression and his course success adds to his claims in a race where the draw could be an asset.
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5Little Miss India50/100
Little Miss India is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent win at a lower level mixed in with several ordinary efforts. She has run just once at Doncaster and failed to place, while two runs on good to soft ground also produced no win or place. Dropping back to 1m today asks a fresh question as she has never been successful at the trip. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she should be suited by the strong pace expected. The trainer's 18% strike rate at Doncaster from 49 runs offers some encouragement despite the jockey's modest record at the track.
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6Masaban50/100
Masaban is a modest performer who has shown consistency this year with form of 613523 and has already placed over course and distance. He steps up from 6f to 1m for the first time in a while yet owns a win at today's trip from four attempts, and he has looked competitive on good to soft. The yard holds a 15% strike rate at Doncaster from 92 runs.
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7Bella Bisbee49/100
Bella Bisbee is a modest performer who has won twice over this trip in the past but steps back up in distance today having run mostly over shorter lately. She has a solid record at Doncaster with two wins from eight runs and the yard posts a slightly positive A/E at the track despite a modest strike rate. Her three runs on good to soft have produced no win or place so that ground remains a slight question mark.
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8Shadow Run49/100
Shadow Run is a modest performer who has been consistent without winning, finishing second over C&D on his only visit to Doncaster. He steps up in trip today having shown his best form over shorter, which asks a fresh question, while he remains unproven on good to soft ground. Trainer Scott Dixon has an 8% strike rate from 288 runs here.
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9Clatford47/100
Clatford is a modest performer who has shown some ability in three runs, finishing second on his latest start over this trip. He has been placed once at today's distance but remains lightly raced with scope to improve. A front-runner who tends to make the running, he will ensure the race is strongly run, though he remains unproven on good to soft ground.
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10Espona Bay45/100
Espona Bay is a modest performer with a busy record of 15 runs this year and a recent sequence of 133513 that shows consistency without much margin for error. Steps up to 1m for the first time today having been placed once at the trip, while two runs on good to soft have produced no win or place. A front-runner who will help ensure a strong pace.
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11Tolstoy44/100
Tolstoy is a modest performer who has shown little spark in recent runs, finishing well down the field on his last three starts. He has been beaten a long way in all five visits to Doncaster and the trainer's modest 7% strike rate here offers no encouragement from stall 12. Good to soft ground clearly suits and he has won over today's trip in the past.
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12Feel The Need44/100
Feel The Need is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. Has run twice at Doncaster without placing and steps up to a trip he has won over before though his recent form is all at shorter. The trainer holds a solid 10% strike rate here while the horse has shown he can act on good to soft ground.
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13Berry Clever44/100
Berry Clever is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning, finishing no worse than fourth in his last four starts. He has run just once at Doncaster and shown no real spark on good to soft ground from three attempts. The trip is a plus as he has won over it before.
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14Caragio42/100
Caragio is a modest performer who has been in and out this year. Has tried this trip four times without success and steps up from 7f today while showing no joy on good to soft in his only run on the surface. Trainer is 0-7 at Doncaster and the horse was only sixth on his sole visit here.
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15Serious Look40/100
Serious Look is a modest performer who has been out of form since a promising second back in April. Dropping back to 1m should suit after his last run over 1m4f and he has won at today's trip in the past, but he is unproven on good to soft ground and was well held when he tried this track as a 5-year-old.
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16Quiet Resolve40/100
Quiet Resolve is a modest performer with a solid recent record of consistency but no win since last year. Has placed here once and shown some ability on good to soft ground, though the wide draw in stall 16 is far from ideal. Trainer remains winless from 52 runs at Doncaster while the horse drops back to a trip where it has won twice before.
KTB verdict
Nyman stands out as the KTB Selection on a Fit rating of 61 and with the benefit of a recent Thirsk win in a lower grade. Dropping in class and with a strong record on good to soft ground, his midfield run style looks perfectly suited to a race that should be strongly run. The main dangers are likely to come from the hold-up brigade given the pace shape, with Wield, Anthropologist and Celtic Chariot all capable of running well if the leaders go too hard early. Celtic Chariot's course win adds extra interest while Anthropologist's recent consistency makes him a solid each-way alternative.
KTB Selection Nyman
This is the narrative read of the 1:50 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class and coming off a Thirsk win?
Nyman, who is the KTB Selection with a Fit rating of 61.
How many habitual front-runners are in the field and what is the expected pace shape?
Two or more habitual front-runners with the pace shape assessed as strong (confidence: high), which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which horse has won twice at Doncaster over this trip?
Bella Bisbee, who has a solid record here with two wins from eight runs.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Doncaster among the principals?
Celtic Chariot's trainer with a 25% strike rate from eight runs.
Which runner has placed over course and distance and steps up from 6f?
Masaban, whose recent form is 613523 and who owns a win at today's trip from four attempts.
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