4:48 Doncaster
This Class 2 handicap over 1m2f43y at Doncaster on good ground brings together a dozen useful performers, several of whom are stepping up in trip for the first time. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Thunder Run and David Of Athens sharing the highest mark of 60/100, followed closely by Pathein on 59. Recent form is mixed across the field, and with several horses unproven at the track or on the surface, the race poses several questions about stamina, course adaptation and how the strong pace will unfold.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present, including Thunder Run, Sportingsilvermine, Bunyola Bay and Touch The Moon all inclined to race prominently. This could set the race up for hold-up performers, several of whom are drawn wide, as the pace is expected to collapse late. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the hands of those coming from off the pace, particularly given the high confidence in the pace shape assessment.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Thunder Run KTB Selection60/100
Thunder Run is a useful performer with a solid recent record that includes two placed efforts in his last four starts. He has won over today's trip and holds a respectable record on good ground, though he was well beaten on his only previous visit to Doncaster. The Burke yard's modest 9% strike rate here from a large sample is another factor to weigh. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace he is likely to be prominent early in what is expected to be a strong pace. Clifford Lee takes the ride for a trainer and jockey combination that has a 16% strike rate together.
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2David Of Athens60/100
David Of Athens is a useful performer who has shown sharp improvement this year with two wins from his last four starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a strong 29% strike rate at Doncaster from 14 runs although the jockey is yet to score from two rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late he should be well positioned to take advantage if the strong pace collapses. His record on good ground remains unproven.
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3Pathein59/100
Pathein is a useful performer who won on his only previous start at this track. He has been consistent in stronger company since without progressing much and now steps up in trip for the first time. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Doncaster, with Ed Dunlop on 10% and Robert Havlin on 14%. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence in that assessment he is drawn wide in stall 13. He has been placed once from two starts on good ground.
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4Tony Montana56/100
Tony Montana is a useful performer who has been out of sorts this year with a string of modest efforts. He drops back from 1m4f to a trip he has won at three times from 18 starts and acts on good ground with a solid record of three wins and seven places from 11 runs. The trainer has a 15% strike rate from 40 runs at Doncaster while this is the horse's first run here. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence he should be suited if the race develops as expected with a strong pace.
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5Sportingsilvermine55/100
Sportingsilvermine is a useful performer who has run well at this track before, finishing third on his latest visit. He drops back from 1m4f to a trip he has won over, though his record on good ground is only modest with one win from 14 starts. James Owen has a solid 18% strike rate here from 50 runs while Marco Ghiani is the jockey. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace he is likely to be involved in the strong early gallop.
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6City Of Poets55/100
City Of Poets is a useful performer who arrives in solid nick after a win at this trip last time out. He has already shown he handles good ground and the yard's modest record at the track is offset by the jockey's stronger figures here. First run at Doncaster asks a fresh question but nothing in the ratings suggests he cannot cope. Usually held up he should be suited by the strong pace.
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7Bunyola Bay55/100
Bunyola Bay is a useful sort who has won four of five starts including a success here on his only previous visit to Doncaster. He steps up in trip today having looked all out over a mile last time, which asks a fresh question. Trainer Richard Hannon has a solid 13% strike rate at the track from a large sample while Sean Levey is aboard. As a front-runner he is likely to be prominent in the expected strong pace.
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8Night Breeze54/100
Night Breeze is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick with three placed efforts from his last five starts. He drops back from 1m4f to a trip where he has been placed three times from six attempts without winning, while he also acts on good ground with two wins and five places from nine starts. Ian Williams has an 11% strike rate here from 539 runs and Billy Loughnane is operating at 15% from 103 rides, though this is the horse's first visit to Doncaster. Usually held up with high confidence.
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9Flying Frontier52/100
Flying Frontier is a useful performer who has won three times on good ground including once at this trip. Recent form has been patchy with no win since last year and a string of mid-pack finishes. First run at Doncaster for a trainer with a modest 9% strike rate here while Marquand is on board. Usually held up with high confidence in that run-style.
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10Touch The Moon52/100
Touch The Moon is a useful performer who has won twice on good ground and twice at this trip from six attempts. Recent form of 12481 shows a mixed bag with a latest win but also some lesser efforts in stronger company. Trainer has no recorded runs at Doncaster while Saffie Osborne has a modest record here from limited rides. As a front-runner he will be prominent early.
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11Port Of London50/100
Port Of London is a fair performer who has won at this trip and showed useful form last season. Dropping back from 1m3f should suit after a lacklustre return over that distance. Trainer has a strong 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 166 runs while the jockey has limited experience here. Usually held up he is unproven on good ground.
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12Tawajjah45/100
Tawajjah is a fair sort who has won four of his six starts and arrives in decent form with two wins from his last three outings. He has already shown he handles this trip, winning his only attempt at it so far. The yard has only four runs at Doncaster which is too small a sample to judge while the lightly-raced profile means the going remains an unknown. Usually held up with high confidence.
KTB verdict
Thunder Run is the KTB Selection. He brings a solid recent record that features two placed efforts in his last four starts, has won over the trip and possesses a respectable record on good ground. Although he was well beaten on his only previous visit to Doncaster and the yard's local strike rate is modest, his ability to make the running should see him ideally placed in a race with a strong pace that could collapse late. The main dangers are David Of Athens, who has improved sharply this year and represents a trainer in excellent form at the track, and Pathein, who won on his sole previous visit to Doncaster and is consistent in stronger company.
KTB Selection Thunder Run
This is the narrative read of the 4:48 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Thunder Run, Sportingsilvermine, Bunyola Bay and Touch The Moon all tend to make the running or race prominently.
Who has the strongest trainer record at Doncaster in this field?
John & Thady Gosden have a 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 166 runs while Hamad Al Jehani is on 29% from a smaller sample of 14 runs.
Which principals are stepping up in trip for the first time?
David Of Athens and Pathein are both stepping up in trip for the first time.
Which horses have previous winning form at Doncaster?
Pathein and Bunyola Bay have both won on their only previous visit to the track.
Which horses are unproven on good ground?
David Of Athens, Port Of London and Tawajjah are all unproven on good ground.
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