3:20 Chester
This Class 3 nursery at Chester over the minimum 5f15y on good to soft ground brings together ten two-year-olds, several of whom have already shown useful speed at the trip. The KTB Fit scores point to a competitive heat headed by Towelontheterrace on 65, with Underdog, This Moment, Rotelle and Peaceful Warrior all closely matched in the 51-59 range. Dropping or stepping in class features for most of the field, while the track records of the trainers and jockeys add another layer to the puzzle at this tight, sharp venue.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, driven by multiple habitual front-runners including Towelontheterrace, This Moment, Quillan and Naval Cop. This sets up the likelihood of a contested lead and the possibility of the pace collapsing in the closing stages, which would play to the strengths of hold-up performers such as Underdog, Rotelle, Deputy Vice, May Bee In Profit and Paper View. The key question is whether the prominent and front-running types can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the lap of something coming from further back on this turning track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Towelontheterrace KTB Selection65/100
Towelontheterrace is a fair two-year-old who has already won here from two runs at Chester. Dropping back to an untried 5f poses a fresh question having last run over 6f. The trainer holds a solid 13% strike-rate at the track while the jockey is operating at 20%. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is sure to be to the fore in a race where the pace is likely to be strong. He is placed once from one run on good to soft and drops in class here.
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2Underdog59/100
Underdog is a fair performer who has won once over today's 5f trip from three attempts but has been below form on his last two starts after an early promise. Dropping back from 6f looks a sensible move given his record at the shorter distance. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Chester and the draw in stall 10 is workable on this track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited to a race where the pace is expected to be strong and could collapse late. He remains unproven on good to soft.
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3This Moment56/100
This Moment is a fair 2yo with a solid recent record of 242411 that includes two wins at this trip from two attempts. He has already shown he handles this track when finishing fourth here and acts well on good to soft ground having won his only start on it. The yard holds a 16 percent strike rate at Chester from 61 runs while the jockey is still seeking her first winner from 10 rides at the track. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he will be prominent early in what is set to be a strongly run affair. He steps up in class here.
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4Rotelle51/100
Rotelle is a fair 2yo who has shown consistent form, winning over this trip on debut before two solid placed efforts in stronger company. The yard's modest 4% strike rate at Chester from 51 runs is a clear negative, though the jockey has a more respectable 9% record here from his small sample. Trip distance is a plus as he has already won at 5f, but with only four career runs the going remains an unknown. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is the type to benefit if the strong pace collapses. He steps up in class here.
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5Peaceful Warrior51/100
Peaceful Warrior is a fair performer who has already shown useful speed when winning on debut before finishing fourth in a stronger race. Dropping back to 5f for the first time asks a fresh question at this trip while the good-to-soft ground remains unknown given the small sample. Trainer Kevin Ryan holds a 13% strike rate at Chester from 383 runs and Shane Gray has a 10% record from 106 rides here. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he should be prominent in a race with a strong pace likely. He drops in class.
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6Quillan49/100
Quillan is a fair 2-year-old with a solid recent record of 110 and has already won both starts at this 5f trip. Dropping back from 6f looks a sensible move though the wide stall in 9 is far from ideal at Chester. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates here and the small-sample going note leaves that side of things unknown. As a front-runner he will be on the pace in what is set to be a strongly run race.
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7Deputy Vice49/100
Deputy Vice is a modest 2yo who has shown consistent form in four starts without winning. He has placed both times at Chester and now drops back to an untried 5f for the first time, which asks a fresh question. Trainer strikes at 6% here from 18 runs while jockey is on 8% from 75 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he could be suited if the pace collapses.
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8Naval Cop46/100
Naval Cop is a modest performer who showed improved form to win a nursery over this trip on good to soft at Windsor last time. Has the benefit of a low draw here and his trainer maintains a solid 21% strike rate at Chester from a big sample. Jockey has only one ride at the track so far which is too small a sample to judge while the colt remains lightly raced overall. As a front-runner he will be to the fore.
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9May Bee In Profit46/100
May Bee In Profit is a fair performer who has already won twice over this trip from five attempts. Recent form of 231061 shows a mix of placed efforts and a latest win, though the yard's modest 9% strike rate at Chester and the jockey's 4% record here are both below par. Going suitability remains unknown with only seven runs on the clock. Usually held up, he may come into it late if the pace is strong.
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10Paper View45/100
Paper View is a fair 2yo who has shown that level on his day, including when winning twice earlier in the season. He has not really built on those efforts of late and was only fifth when he tried this track on his one run here. The trip has not really worked out in four attempts and the yard and jockey records at Chester are both below average. Usually held up with high confidence, he is another who could benefit from a strong pace.
KTB verdict
Towelontheterrace stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair two-year-old who has already won at Chester, he drops in class and is proven at the track while the trainer and jockey both hold above-average records here. His front-running style will see him set or share the pace in a race where it is likely to be strong, and he has already shown he handles good to soft. The main dangers are Underdog, who drops back to his best trip from a workable draw and is suited by the expected pace shape, and This Moment, who has strong recent form at the trip, handles the ground and the track, and will also be prominent early.
KTB Selection Towelontheterrace
This is the narrative read of the 3:20 Chester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Chester results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course winning form at Chester?
Towelontheterrace has won here from two runs at Chester.
How many front-runners are likely to contest the early lead?
There are at least four habitual front-runners: Towelontheterrace, This Moment, Quillan and Naval Cop.
Which runners are unproven on good to soft ground?
Underdog, Rotelle, Peaceful Warrior, Deputy Vice and Paper View have no runs on good to soft.
Who holds the strongest trainer record at Chester in this field?
Andrew Balding has a 21% strike rate at Chester from 646 runs.
Which horse is dropping in class from a previous higher level?
Towelontheterrace, Underdog, Peaceful Warrior and Quillan are all dropping in class.
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