5:05 Clonmel
The 5:05 at Clonmel is a 1m1f168y Suir Blueway Handicap for three-year-olds on good to yielding ground, featuring a field of 14 largely unproven or limited performers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with no standout standout, reflecting a race where ability levels are modest across the board and many runners carry significant unknowns regarding trip, ground or course. With the KTB numbers highlighting limited performers and modest course records for most connections, the contest looks likely to be decided by which horse can best handle the step up in distance or the application of first-time headgear.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to one clear front-runner enjoying an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Mare Crisium is the only horse with a front-running run-style and looks set to take that role from the wide draw, while the other 13 runners are almost all held-up types who produce their effort late. This sets up a key question of whether any closer can bridge the gap to a horse given an easy time on the front, particularly on ground that may not overly punish the leader.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Incredible Army KTB Selection61/100
Incredible Army has shown very little in eight starts and carries a limited level of ability. He steps up in trip today having failed to place in one previous attempt at this distance while his sole run on good to yielding ground also produced no reward. The yard has no Clonmel record from 13 runs overall at a 23% strike rate and the jockey has no record at the track with a neutral score. Usually held up and producing its effort late from draw 7, this remains something of an unknown given the lack of course form and the combination of trainer and jockey both without a recorded presence at Clonmel.
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2Ella's Gold59/100
Ella's Gold is a limited horse who has been placed a couple of times this year but has failed to build on that in recent starts. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate at Clonmel from 44 runs with an A/E of 1.01 while the jockey is even better at 21% from his 14 rides with an A/E of 1.88. Stepping up in trip today with no experience of good to yielding ground adds uncertainty, as does the absence of any course form on record. Usually held up and producing its effort late from draw 3, the combination of yard and rider at the track offers the main positives for this three-year-old.
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3Queen Of Astolat54/100
Queen Of Astolat is a limited filly who has been largely out of her depth in recent starts and now drops back in trip with first-time headgear applied. She has no experience of this ground and makes her debut at Clonmel, though the yard has a modest 10% strike rate here from 183 runs with an A/E of 1. The jockey is the main positive with a strong 29% strike rate from his 14 rides at the track carrying an A/E of 2.39. Usually held up and producing its effort late from draw 9 with a trainer and jockey combined record of 82/1053 at 8% and an A/E of 0.78, the headgear is now called upon to spark improvement.
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4Mare Crisium47/100
Mare Crisium is a limited filly who has shown only modest form across nine starts and looks up against it from a wide draw. She has placed once at this trip but is 0-2 on good-to-yielding ground and makes her first visit to Clonmel. The trainer holds a 12% strike rate here from 51 runs with an A/E of 0.84 while the jockey is operating at 13% from 76 rides with an A/E of 1.03. Tending to make the running or race on the pace from draw 14 with a trainer and jockey combined record of 80/688 at 12% and an A/E of 0.95, she is the one likely to set the uncontested lead that the pace shape suggests could be hard to peg back.
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5Concaire45/100
Concaire is a limited performer who has shown little in seven starts and looks up against it again from stall one. The trainer has a strong 20% strike rate at Clonmel with an A/E of 1.88 from five runs but the jockey's 9% record from 121 rides carries an A/E of 0.8. The trip is a fresh question today and the lack of runs on good to yielding leaves that unknown, as does the absence of course form. Usually held up and producing its effort late from draw 1 with a trainer and jockey combined record of 12/102 at 12% and an A/E of 0.80, the strong yard record at the venue is the primary hope.
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6John La Bear44/100
John La Bear is a modest performer who has shown his best form when finishing fourth on both his last two starts of last season. He returns from a break off the back of two modest efforts this year and now steps up in trip for the first time as a fresh question, with the trainer holding a modest 6% strike rate from 54 runs at Clonmel and the jockey still seeking a first win from five rides here.
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7Zitkala Sa44/100
Zitkala Sa is a limited performer who has shown little since a placed effort over this trip early in the season. Dropping back from 1m5f with first-time headgear now fitted, the trainer and jockey both have modest records at Clonmel from respective samples of 295 and 205 rides.
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8Sweetie Too42/100
Sweetie Too is a limited performer who has shown little in four starts to date and looks up against it from a wide draw. The trainer has yet to record a winner from six runs at Clonmel while the jockey operates at a modest 8% strike rate here, and stepping up in trip for the first time poses a fresh question with the small sample on this ground leaving suitability unknown.
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9Cadreville36/100
Cadreville is a limited horse who has struggled since a placed effort over this trip on debut. Dropping back from 1m4f looks a plus on balance but the first-time headgear is a clear sign that something has not been right of late, while the trainer's modest 7% strike-rate at Clonmel from 44 runs adds no encouragement.
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10Borora Aura34/100
Borora Aura is a limited performer who has shown occasional spark but remains winless after 12 starts. Has placed once on this sort of ground and twice at today's trip though neither was a win, with both trainer and jockey holding modest records at Clonmel.
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11Arizona Star32/100
Arizona Star is a limited performer who has shown occasional flashes without winning in eight starts. He has been placed twice from three runs at today's trip which is a plus though he remains unproven on good to yielding ground, while the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Clonmel adds little encouragement and the jockey has no recorded rides here.
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12Ochtar Againn32/100
Ochtar Againn is a limited performer who has failed to place in nine starts and arrives here in ordinary form. The step up in trip asks a fresh question while the yard has a modest 2% strike-rate at Clonmel from 53 runs, with first run at the track and only one previous effort on this ground adding to the unknowns.
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13Mrs Lady Bella30/100
Mrs Lady Bella is a limited performer who has shown very little in three starts to date, finishing no better than fifth. The step up in trip poses a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 13 adds another complication, with the trainer on a 0% strike rate from 13 runs at Clonmel and the jockey's small sample here making it hard to gauge their local record.
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14Garryowen Green29/100
Garryowen Green is a limited performer who has shown very little in eight starts and arrives here with a recent form line of 900539. Steps up in trip for the first time today while making his debut at Clonmel on ground he has only tried once before without success, with the trainer holding a 10% strike rate at the track from 50 runs but the claiming jockey having had too few rides here to draw any firm conclusions.
KTB verdict
Incredible Army is the KTB Selection in a race where the majority of the field carry limited ability and multiple unknowns. The three-year-old has shown very little to date yet steps up in trip with the pace shape suggesting an uncontested lead for the lone front-runner that could stretch the closers, and his held-up style may see him delivered late if the leader falters. The main dangers are Ella's Gold, whose trainer and jockey combination at Clonmel stands out positively among this field, and Queen Of Astolat, who brings first-time headgear and the strongest jockey record at the venue. Mare Crisium is likely to make the running from her wide draw and could prove hard to peg back if allowed an easy time upfront.
KTB Selection Incredible Army
This is the narrative read of the 5:05 Clonmel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Clonmel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Clonmel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Mare Crisium is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many runners are making their first appearance at Clonmel?
The entire field of 14 has no course form on record.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Clonmel in this race?
J M Sheridan has a 29% strike rate at Clonmel from 14 rides with an A/E of 2.39.
How many principals are stepping up in trip for this race?
Incredible Army, Ella's Gold and Concaire are all stepping up in trip today.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Queen Of Astolat, Zitkala Sa and Cadreville are all fitted with first-time headgear.
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