7:12 Wolverhampton (AW)
A Class 5 handicap over 1m142y on the standard surface at Wolverhampton brings together ten modest performers in what looks a steadily-run, tactical affair. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Drumstick on 58, with Rua Mor (57), American State (56), Espanita (55) and The Hare Rail (54) all in the mix. Most of the field are dropping in class, yet few have strong recent wins to their name, and the lack of an obvious leader adds an extra layer of intrigue to how the race will unfold.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape indicating a lack of any obvious leader and medium confidence in that read, the race is likely to be steadily-run and tactical. Most principals are held-up types who produce their effort late, so being handy could prove advantageous in a race where the pace may not be strong. The key question is whether any horse can quicken effectively off a muddling gallop or if the prominent runner in the field can steal an advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Drumstick KTB Selection58/100
Drumstick is a modest performer who showed a bit more when winning a weak handicap at Lingfield in January before running no sort of race at Kempton last time. He drops back in trip to 1m today having looked stretched over 1m2f on his most recent start, though he has only tried this distance once before without success. The 5-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late. Fergal O'Brien has an 11% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 55 runs while the trainer and jockey combination show a 10/35 (29%) record with an A/E of 1.51 and +£24.98 LSP. This is his first run at the track and he is placed once from one run on standard going.
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2Rua Mor57/100
Rua Mor is a modest performer who has been consistent enough on this track without ever threatening to win. Two runs over today's trip produced no success and his latest efforts over 7f suggest the step back up in distance is worth trying but offers no guarantee of improvement. The 4-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late with high confidence in that assessment. Trainer Sam England has a solid 14% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 51 runs while the trainer and jockey show 0/12 (0%) with an A/E of 0.00 and -£12.00 LSP. He has run twice here without placing and has three runs on standard going without a win or place.
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3American State56/100
American State is a modest performer who has won once from five runs at this track and also has a win at today's trip on his record. Recent form has been ordinary with a best of fourth in his last three starts and he steps back up in trip after a recent run over a mile. The 4-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late. Trainer Ivan Furtado holds a 10% strike rate here from 563 runs while the trainer and jockey combination show 1/10 (10%) with an A/E of 1.20 and -£4.50 LSP. He has two wins from 13 runs on standard going and has won once from five starts at Wolverhampton.
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4Espanita55/100
Espanita is a modest performer who has won twice from four runs at Wolverhampton. She has shown enough on standard going with three wins from seven starts and is drawn okay in stall six. The 3-year-old steps up in trip again today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous tries at this distance. She is held up and usually produces her effort late. Trainer Charlie Johnston has a 13% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 350 runs while the trainer and jockey show 20/155 (13%) with an A/E of 0.88 and -£9.00 LSP. She has three wins from seven runs on standard going and has won twice from four starts at the track.
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5The Hare Rail54/100
The Hare Rail is a modest performer who has been placed on all three visits to this track and looks well suited by the return to standard going where he has shown his best efforts. He has been consistent rather than progressive lately with a string of minor honours at this trip and class level. The 4-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late. Trainer Roger Teal maintains a solid 13% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 278 runs while the trainer and jockey show 6/65 (9%) with an A/E of 0.81 and -£28.75 LSP. He has been placed four times from six runs on standard going and has placed on all three previous starts at Wolverhampton without winning.
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6Highland Olly52/100
Highland Olly is a modest performer who has been a regular at this track without ever threatening to win. He drops back to his winning trip today having been well held over longer last time, though his record on standard going remains ordinary. The 5-year-old is prominent and usually races handily. Trainer Grant Tuer operates at a steady 12% strike rate here from 185 runs while the trainer and jockey show 3/16 (19%) with an A/E of 1.97 and +£6.75 LSP. He has five runs on standard going without a win or place and has run twice here without placing.
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7Moon Beginnings50/100
Moon Beginnings is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He has run just once over this trip without success and steps up in distance today which asks a fresh question. The 4-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late. Trainer David Loughnane operates at a 10% strike rate here from 876 runs while the trainer and jockey show 8/75 (11%) with an A/E of 1.02 and -£29.96 LSP. He has been placed once from three runs on standard going and has run once here without placing.
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8Three No Trumps50/100
Three No Trumps is a modest performer who has shown fair placed form on his last two starts including when third over this trip on his most recent outing. Drawn in stall five he has the right connections here with Ed Dunlop holding a solid 14% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 845 runs. The 3-year-old is usually mid-division. Trip and ground both remain unproven questions at this stage of his career and he has no runs on standard going or at the track.
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9Meritocratic39/100
Meritocratic is a limited performer who has failed to place in any of his eight runs and finished no better than fifth on his last three starts. Dropping back in trip to an untried 1m poses a fresh question while his record on this surface and at Wolverhampton offers little encouragement. The 3-year-old is held up and usually produces his effort late. Trainer James Owen has a solid 20% strike rate here from 264 runs while the trainer and jockey show 30/204 (15%) with an A/E of 0.95 and -£40.91 LSP. He has four runs on standard going without a win or place and has run once here without placing.
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10Lili Marleen37/100
Lili Marleen is a limited performer who has struggled since early promise, with recent form reading FP9088 and no win in her last ten starts. She has already tried this trip without success and was well held on her only previous run here. The 4-year-old is held up and usually produces her effort late. The yard has a modest 13% strike-rate at Wolverhampton from 139 runs and the trainer and jockey show 1/8 (13%). She has one win from five runs on standard going.
KTB verdict
Drumstick is the KTB Selection. He showed a bit more when landing a weak handicap at Lingfield earlier this year and now drops in class and back in trip having looked stretched last time, with the steadily-run nature of the race potentially playing to his held-up run style. Connections are in decent form and the drop back to 1m looks a sensible move. Main dangers are Rua Mor, who has been consistent enough on this track and steps back up in trip, and American State, who has a win at the course and trip on his record despite recent ordinary efforts. Espanita and The Hare Rail add further depth in a race where several can be given a chance.
KTB Selection Drumstick
This is the narrative read of the 7:12 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Wolverhampton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping back in trip after looking stretched over further last time?
Drumstick, who is dropping back to 1m having looked stretched over 1m2f at Kempton.
How many wins has Espanita recorded at Wolverhampton?
Two wins from four runs at the track.
Which runner has been placed on all three previous visits to Wolverhampton?
The Hare Rail, who has finished third, fourth and second without winning.
What is the trainer strike rate at Wolverhampton for the yard of the top-rated horse?
Fergal O'Brien has an 11% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 55 runs.
Which horse has shown fair placed form on his last two starts including a third over this trip?
Three No Trumps, who was third on his most recent outing.
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