3:42 Listowel
The 3:42 at Listowel is a 15-runner Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle over 2m on yielding ground. It lacks an obvious leader and looks set to be a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy could prove advantageous. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with three principals tied on 54, underlining a competitive heat where proven ability on the surface and at the trip will carry extra weight.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead, the pace shape points to a steadily-run race in which prominent or midfield runners may hold an edge over those held up. Most of the field, including all five principals, are typically held-up types who produce their effort late, which could make the race a test of timing and positioning in the straight. The key question is whether any horse can get into a rhythm early enough to capitalise when the tempo lifts, or whether the race will be decided by those who can close best off a steady gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Kilbrin Rocco54/100
Kilbrin Rocco is a useful performer who showed his best form when winning at this trip. He has won on yielding ground from just two attempts and drops back in trip after his last run over 2m2f. The trainer has a 7% strike rate from 196 runs at Listowel while the jockey is making his first appearance at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall right in a steadily-run affair. Recent form of 951-29 suggests he remains capable at this level when things align.
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2Churchwarden KTB Selection54/100
Churchwarden is a smart performer who has shown his best form over hurdles and on the Flat in recent seasons. He steps up in trip here having been placed without winning at this distance previously, while he has won on yielding ground from limited attempts. The yard hold a solid record at Listowel and this looks a suitable opportunity on the balance of his career form. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be well suited to the steadily-run nature of the race. His recent placed effort after a layoff adds to the encouragement.
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3Lenjoleur De Palma54/100
Lenjoleur De Palma is a smart performer who has won at this trip and showed his ability with placed efforts on his last two starts. He has already run once here without success and his trainer's modest 5% strike-rate at Listowel adds a note of caution. The horse acts on yielding ground, having been placed on his only start on the surface. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is likely to be a tactical contest. Recent form of 63123- underlines his consistency at a decent level.
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4Ephesus53/100
Ephesus is a smart performer who has been out of form this season and finished well beaten on both starts since returning from a break. He stays this trip and has placed over it in the past but has never won beyond 1m2f and showed no encouragement on his only previous try at Listowel. The trainer's modest 6% strike rate at the track adds little confidence here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to find significant improvement to feature. Recent form of 460-79 offers little encouragement.
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5Kilt51/100
Kilt is a useful performer on his best days and has solid recent form including a win and a string of competitive runs. He has already shown up well at Listowel when fourth on his only visit and the yard's record at the track is established if modest. Dropping back to 2m poses a fresh question as he has never won at the trip and has failed to place from two runs on yielding ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to close off what should be a steady gallop. Recent form of -14546 shows he remains in the mix at this level.
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6Metamorpheus47/100
Metamorpheus arrives in solid recent form with three seconds from his last four starts. He has won over today's trip in the past but looks stretched by the drop back from 2m1f, while his record on yielding ground is modest from just two starts and course form is ordinary with no placed efforts from three runs here.
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7Acheron47/100
Acheron is a useful performer on his best days but has been out of form for some time with a recent record of U-0029. He drops back to 2m having looked stretched over further last time yet showed nothing at this trip on his only previous attempt, and the yard has a modest 6% strike-rate at Listowel from a big sample.
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8Beckistine46/100
Beckistine is a smart performer on his day but has been struggling for form of late with a string of modest efforts. He drops back to a trip he has placed at in the past though the yard has a poor record at Listowel and he showed little on his only run on yielding ground.
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9Superficial45/100
Superficial has shown placed form over this course but has struggled to convert it into a win. He steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in three previous attempts at 2m while the yard has a poor 0% strike rate from 24 runs at Listowel, though he has won once from three starts on yielding ground.
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10Mc Swagger44/100
Mc Swagger is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history yet has been well below that level in three starts this year. He showed little on his only previous visit to Listowel and the yard's modest 7% strike rate here offers no encouragement, though dropping back to a trip at which he has placed once is the one positive.
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11Sayitfirst42/100
Sayitfirst has shown little spark in two runs this year after a long break. He has form at this trip and a win on yielding ground but his two runs here produced no impact and the yard has yet to strike at Listowel.
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12Rene's Gold40/100
Rene's Gold is a useful performer on the balance of what he has shown so far but has been well held in both starts this year. He drops back to 2m today after racing over slightly further last time, though he has already been beaten twice at this trip, while the trainer holds an 8% strike rate from 63 runs at Listowel.
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13Jaadil40/100
Jaadil has shown his best form at longer trips and now drops back to 2m for the first time in a while. He has run just once at Listowel and fell, while the trainer's modest 5% strike rate from 534 runs here adds little encouragement.
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14Ahellofaman37/100
Ahellofaman is a fair performer who has shown some ability at this trip, placing once in six starts. He arrives off the back of a fall last time and has no experience on yielding ground, which adds an unknown, while the yard has a modest 6% strike rate from 214 runs at Listowel.
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15Dream Shaper36/100
Dream Shaper has shown enough in recent runs to remain competitive at this level. He drops back to 2m having failed to land a blow over longer trips and has never placed from four attempts on yielding ground, while the trainer remains without a Listowel winner from 36 attempts.
KTB verdict
Churchwarden stands out as the KTB Selection. A smart performer who has shown his best form over hurdles and on the Flat in recent seasons, he steps up in trip having been placed without winning at this distance previously and has won on yielding ground from limited attempts. The yard hold a solid record at Listowel and this looks a suitable opportunity on the balance of his career form. The main dangers are Kilbrin Rocco, who drops back in trip having won on yielding ground, and Lenjoleur De Palma, who has placed on his last two starts and acts on the surface. Kilt also enters calculations having shown up well at Listowel before, though the drop to 2m poses a question.
KTB Selection Churchwarden
This is the narrative read of the 3:42 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent placed form at Listowel?
Kilt showed up well at Listowel when fourth on his only visit.
How many principals are held-up types?
All five principals are held-up types who usually produce their effort late.
Which horse has won on yielding ground from the fewest attempts?
Both Kilbrin Rocco and Churchwarden have won on yielding ground from just two attempts.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Listowel among the principals?
The trainer of Churchwarden has a 15% strike rate at Listowel from 276 runs.
Which horse is stepping up in trip having been placed at this distance previously?
Churchwarden is stepping up in trip here having been placed without winning at this distance previously.
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