4:17 Listowel
This 21-runner Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle over 2m4f at Listowel on yielding ground looks a typically competitive affair for the class. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Ehteyat heading the numbers on 71, followed by a cluster of smart performers in the low-to-mid 60s. Several hold-up types feature prominently, and with a strong pace shape anticipated the race could easily fall apart late on.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is expected with at least two habitual front-runners present, Kevin's Pride and Ripsnorter, likely to set a solid gallop from the outset. The majority of the field, including the top five in the KTB Fit rankings, are hold-up performers who will be looking to conserve energy early and pounce late. This shape raises the key question of whether the leaders will fold as expected in the closing stages, potentially handing the advantage to those coming from off the pace on this yielding surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ehteyat KTB Selection71/100
Ehteyat is a smart performer who won on his only previous visit to Listowel. He has been out of form on his last two starts yet the drop back to an untested 2m4f could sharpen him up. The trainer has a strong 20% strike rate at the track from a small sample. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be well suited if the strong pace materialises as forecast. He was placed once from two starts on yielding ground and carries the KTB Selection tag.
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2Lisnagar Fortune63/100
Lisnagar Fortune is a smart performer who has been out of form for some time with recent efforts reading 87-8P. He is dropping back in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance in the past and holds a solid record on yielding ground, placed three times from four starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be hoping the race collapses in the straight. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Listowel from 107 runs while the jockey boasts a 20% strike rate and A/E of 1.93 from 20 rides at the venue.
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3Carrigg Island62/100
Carrigg Island is high-class on ratings and showed solid placed form in stronger races last season. He drops back to 2m4f today after a couple of runs over further, though he has failed to win or place in three previous attempts at this trip. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be well positioned if the strong pace takes its toll. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate at Listowel from a large sample while the horse showed only modest form when fifth on his sole start here. The jockey has an 18% strike rate and A/E of 1.78 from 11 rides at the track.
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4No Looking Back59/100
No Looking Back is a smart performer who has been mixing it at a decent level and arrives here off the back of a respectable seventh last time. He steps up in trip today having failed to land a blow in five previous tries at this distance, which asks a fresh question, while this is also his first run at Listowel. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be looking to benefit if the leaders come back to him. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate here from 36 runs and he has won once from seven starts on yielding ground.
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5Reiki Revolution58/100
Reiki Revolution is a smart performer who has shown strong placed form at this track and knows his way around Listowel, having finished third here. Dropping back from three miles to a trip he has won over should suit, though his recent form has been patchy with two unseatings and a modest fourth last time. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will hope the strong pace plays into his hands. The trainer's solid 10% strike rate at Listowel adds some confidence, while the yielding ground remains a slight unknown after just one run on it.
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6First Ascent58/100
First Ascent is a smart performer who arrives in solid nick after winning last time out over 2m. He steps up in trip today for a yard with a 13% strike rate at Listowel from 328 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he has had only one run on yielding ground so far which offers limited encouragement.
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7Cozone57/100
Cozone is a smart performer with a solid record here, winning from two runs at Listowel. He has won over today's trip in the past though his recent form has mostly come over shorter and this step back up in distance asks a fresh question. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he has won once and placed once from four starts on yielding ground.
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8Slurricane57/100
Slurricane is a high-class performer with strong ratings and history who has already placed here at Listowel. He drops back in trip to an untried 2m4f today which asks a fresh question while he remains competitive on yielding ground, placed twice from three starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the trainer records a modest 8% strike rate from 63 runs at the track.
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9Pakens Rock56/100
Pakens Rock is a smart performer who has placed on his only previous visit to Listowel and holds solid course connections. He has won on yielding ground, twice from eight starts, and has scored at today's trip in the past, though he steps back up in distance from his most recent 2m1f run. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the yard's 8% strike rate at the track is respectable given the small sample.
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10Kevin's Pride54/100
Kevin's Pride is a smart performer who has shown consistent form this season with a win and several placed efforts. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance, though he is unproven on yielding ground. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, the trainer records a 10% strike rate at Listowel from 107 runs while this is the horse's first run at the track.
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11Chutzpal51/100
Chutzpal is a smart performer with a solid career record and useful placed form on yielding ground, one win and two places from eight starts. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over a mile and six, so this will be a fresh test. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the trainer has a good 15% strike rate at Listowel from a big sample.
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12Killowen House51/100
Killowen House is a smart performer who has been knocking on the door of late with solid placed efforts at varying distances. He drops back from 3m2f to a trip where he has already shown he can finish in the frame. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the trainer records a 6% strike rate from 77 runs at Listowel.
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13In For The Night50/100
In For The Night is a smart performer who arrives in form after a recent win. He has placed three times from seven starts on yielding ground and is proven at this trip having won over it before. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the trainer is still seeking a first Listowel winner from 26 attempts.
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14Mart Lane50/100
Mart Lane is a smart performer who has shown strong placed form this year, finishing second in both starts since returning from a break. He steps up to an untried 2m4f today which asks a fresh question of his stamina. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the trainer has a solid 25% strike rate at Listowel from 12 runs.
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15Boston Rajj49/100
Boston Rajj is a smart performer who has run well enough in stronger company and has solid course connections here. Only one run at Listowel resulted in a fair fifth while he has placed once from four starts on yielding ground and once from three at today's trip. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the trainer's modest 5% strike-rate at the track from 19 runs is offset by an A/E of 1.04.
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16Mags Nelson48/100
Mags Nelson is a smart performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He drops back from 3m to a trip he has tried three times without success and has no experience on yielding ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the trainer operates at an 8% strike rate from 63 runs at Listowel.
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17Aurea Fortuna46/100
Aurea Fortuna is a smart performer on his day with solid ratings and race history behind him. He has run well enough on yielding ground in the past, placed twice from seven starts, and steps up in trip today having already placed at this distance without winning. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the Listowel course record reads just a single fifth and the trainer's strike rate here is modest at 11 percent from a big sample.
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18Moylussa46/100
Moylussa is a smart performer who arrives in solid form with three consecutive placed efforts. He steps up in trip today having already shown he can be competitive at this distance without winning, and he has placed three times from five runs on yielding ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, the trainer has only had one runner at Listowel so far, too small a sample to judge, while this is the horse's first visit to the track.
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19Ripsnorter44/100
Ripsnorter is a smart performer on the balance of ratings and recent race history with a win in the latest run. He showed little at this track on his only visit and the yard has failed to land a winner from 11 attempts here. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, the step up to 2m4f is an unknown and he has no experience of yielding ground.
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20Tiger Twins42/100
Tiger Twins is a smart performer who has shown ability on several occasions yet remains winless after six starts. He has already tried this track twice without success and is now dropping back from 3m to a trip he failed to handle on his only attempt. Usually held up and producing his effort late, the trainer operates at a 7% strike rate here from a large sample.
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21Hello Jack41/100
Hello Jack is a smart performer who has shown useful form in stronger company but arrives here on the back of a poor run when pulled up over 3m2f. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried while wearing first-time headgear. Typically settling in midfield, the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Listowel from a big sample is a negative.
KTB verdict
Ehteyat stands out as the KTB Selection. A smart performer who won on his only previous visit to Listowel, the drop back to an untested 2m4f could sharpen him up at a venue where the trainer has a strong 20% strike rate from a small sample. His hold-up style aligns well with the strong pace shape that is likely to favour those producing their effort late. The main dangers are Lisnagar Fortune, who drops back in trip with a solid record on yielding ground, and Carrigg Island, who brings high-class ratings and placed form from stronger races despite his poor record at this trip.
KTB Selection Ehteyat
This is the narrative read of the 4:17 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and is the selection?
Ehteyat with a KTB Fit of 71/100 is the selection.
What is the expected pace shape and how might it influence the race?
Strong pace likely with high confidence, featuring two or more habitual front-runners, which could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
How many of the top five rated horses are hold-up performers?
All five of the top-rated horses – Ehteyat, Lisnagar Fortune, Carrigg Island, No Looking Back and Reiki Revolution – are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Listowel among those with runners in the top five?
M K Flannery has a 20% strike rate at Listowel from a small sample of five runs.
Which horses in the field are front-runners likely to set the strong pace?
Kevin's Pride tends to make the running or race on the pace, as does Ripsnorter.
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