5:40 Roscommon
This 16-runner bumper at Roscommon over 1m7f135y on good ground features a mix of debutants, lightly raced sorts and a handful with placed form to their name. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with no standout on pure numbers, though the overall data confidence remains low across much of the field given the prevalence of newcomers and small-sample trainer records. The race is shaped by a lone leader scenario that could make life difficult for those coming from off the pace.
How the race shapes up
With a high-confidence lone-leader pace shape, one horse is expected to bowl along clear with little pressure up front. Several runners tend to race prominently or on the pace, but the lack of obvious challengers to the leader suggests an uncontested lead that could prove hard to reel in late. The key question is whether any of the held-up types, or those stepping up markedly on modest form, can close the gap on a horse allowed its own way in front.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Pillars Presence KTB Selection64/100
Pillars Presence is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The yard and jockey both have a blank record at Roscommon so far. Pedigree and sales background will have to carry the assessment here given the low data confidence. The 4-year-old is the KTB Selection and is taken to make a winning start despite the unknowns. Connections' overall figures show a 7% strike rate from 14 runs at the venue, with an A/E of 2.18 that hints at some underlying promise.
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2The Last Line56/100
The Last Line showed ability when second on debut over 2m1f and now drops back in trip for only his second start. The yard has only four runs at Roscommon so far which is too small a sample to judge while the 7lb claimer has no recorded rides here. Data confidence is low so this lightly-raced sort should be treated with caution. He has been placed once from one run on good ground and remains open to improvement despite the drop in distance.
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3Finest Band55/100
Finest Band is a debutant whose assessment rests mainly on pedigree and sales background plus the yard's strong record here. Barry Connell has a 50% strike rate from 14 runners at Roscommon while first-time headgear is also applied. The jockey's 9% strike rate from 23 rides at the track is more modest. The 5-year-old is sired by Bande, who has a 6% overall win rate from 168 runners, and connections will hope the headgear helps him show his best on debut.
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4Thrill A Minute53/100
Thrill A Minute makes his debut for a yard with no recorded runners at Roscommon. The jockey has a solid 22% strike rate from nine rides at the track. With no racecourse form to go on and low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background. The 5-year-old is by Berkshire, who boasts a 12% overall win rate from 483 runners, and the booking of Mr A P Ryan offers some encouragement on his first start.
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5Peat Sounds52/100
Peat Sounds has shown only modest form in two starts so far and remains lightly raced with little to go on. The drop back in trip to 1m7f poses a fresh question. Mullins has a solid 22% strike rate from 293 runs at Roscommon while Townend is operating at 24% from 17 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he was placed once from one run on good ground and could improve for the shorter distance despite his modest recent form figures of 38.
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6Greattobeable49/100
Greattobeable is a debutant with no racecourse experience to go on. The pedigree and sales background are the main pointers here, though the data confidence remains low. Trainer Stephen Curling has a solid 12% strike rate from 25 runs at Roscommon while jockey Mr D Doyle is still seeking his first winner from 15 rides at the track.
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7Dr Bones49/100
Dr Bones is a well-bred newcomer from the powerful Mullins yard. The trainer has a solid 22% strike rate at Roscommon from a large sample while the jockey matches that figure from his own 55 rides here. With no racecourse form to go on the pedigree and sales background will decide how much interest there is.
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8Aruntotheace48/100
Aruntotheace is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so far. The pedigree and sales background offer limited clues and the first-time headgear adds another unknown. Trainer Martin Brassil has a solid 11% strike rate from 61 runs here while jockey Mr J L Gleeson posts a 20% record from 10 rides at the track.
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9Champagne Order48/100
Champagne Order is a debutant whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background plus the yard's local record. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 109 runs at Roscommon while the jockey is 11% from nine rides here. Recent form is irrelevant for this newcomer.
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10Madison Twist44/100
Madison Twist has only one run under her belt and was well beaten on debut. The yard has a modest 5% strike rate from 39 runs at Roscommon while the jockey has no recorded rides at the track. With such a small sample overall the form is hard to weigh up and the trip looks an open question. She tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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11Our Sonny41/100
Our Sonny has only two runs in the book and showed little on either start. He drops back in trip today to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has an 8% strike rate from 63 runs at Roscommon while the jockey has no recorded rides here. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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12Tale Of Intrigue40/100
Tale Of Intrigue has shown some ability on the Flat with a string of placed efforts including over today's trip. Dropping back from 2m looks a sensible move though he still needs to improve on recent form to get competitive. Trainer is 0-12 at the track while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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13Ilen's Dream39/100
Ilen's Dream is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The pedigree and sales background provide the only clues here and the low data confidence means any firm view would be guesswork. Trainer Gearoid O'Loughlin has a 0% strike rate from eight runs at Roscommon while jockey Mr R James has had only three rides at the track.
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14Touch The Clouds39/100
Placed twice from two starts in bumpers last year, showing fair form without looking anything special. Drops back from 2m2f to 1m7f today, a trip at which he has already been placed once. Trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Roscommon from a big sample offers little encouragement and the jockey has too few rides here to judge. Usually held up and produces his effort late.
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15Throwmedownsomthin39/100
Lightly raced with just two runs this year and both poor efforts. Trainer has a modest 2% strike rate from 95 runs at Roscommon while the jockey has too few rides at the track to judge. Course form shows an eleventh on the only visit here and the trip has produced no success so far.
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16Long Story38/100
Long Story has shown very little in four starts so far, finishing no better than seventh. He is still lightly raced and not fully exposed but the bare form is modest and he has failed to make any impression at this trip. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Roscommon adds little encouragement. Typically settles in midfield.
KTB verdict
Pillars Presence is the KTB Selection in a race where the lack of established form makes the outcome particularly open. His assessment is carried by pedigree and sales background, and the yard's positive A/E at the track offers some hope on debut. The main dangers are The Last Line, who showed ability on debut and now drops in trip, and Finest Band, who benefits from the yard's excellent 50% strike rate at Roscommon and the first-time headgear. Thrill A Minute and Peat Sounds are next in the KTB Fit order and cannot be entirely dismissed in a field where many others have even less to recommend them.
KTB Selection Pillars Presence
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:04 UTC, 28 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Ilen's Dream | 100/1 | Unibet |
This is the narrative read of the 5:40 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Roscommon results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Pillars Presence rated the top selection despite being a debutant?
The assessment rests on pedigree and sales background given the low data confidence, while connections' A/E of 2.18 at Roscommon provides underlying encouragement.
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
The lone-leader pace shape points to one clear front-runner with little to pressure it, with Madison Twist and Our Sonny both tending to make the running or race on the pace.
How does the trainer of Finest Band perform at Roscommon?
Barry Connell has a 50% strike rate from 14 runners at Roscommon with an A/E of 2.23.
What is the run-style of Peat Sounds?
Usually held up and produces its effort late, with limited evidence and low confidence.
Which runners have first-time headgear applied?
Finest Band and Aruntotheace both race in first-time headgear.
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