1:58 Nottingham
This Class 4 nursery at Nottingham over 6f18y on good ground brings together ten two-year-olds, several with previous winning form at the trip. The KTB Fit scores range from 61 down to 42, highlighting a competitive field where proven ability, course connections and trainer/jockey strike rates at Nottingham all carry weight. Pride of Toledo tops the KTB rankings as the selection on the back of consistent form and solid yard and rider statistics at the venue.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, featuring a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types in what should prove a fair test. Musical Force and Pure Mint both tend to make the running or race prominently, while Washington Royale and Kingdom of Kush are usually on or close to the lead. That early speed should ensure a proper gallop, posing the key question of which of the held-up runners can time their late effort best once the leaders come back to them.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Pride of Toledo KTB Selection61/100
Pride of Toledo is a fair 2-year-old who has already won over today's trip and shown consistent form across four starts. The Clive Cox yard posts a 15% strike rate at Nottingham from a large sample of 314 runs, and Callum Rodriguez matches that 15% figure from his own 74 rides here. With an official rating of 85 he sits at the top of the weights, yet only four career runs leave the going an unknown after one unplaced effort on good ground. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and will look to come from off the pace in a race expected to be run at a genuine clip. His recent form reads 5145 and he remains the KTB selection.
-
2Washington Royale56/100
Washington Royale is a fair 2-year-old who has already won over today's 6f trip. He showed improved form when taking a similar race at this track last time out, and holds solid course connections through his trainer. The Michael Appleby yard has a 15% strike rate at Nottingham from 624 runs, though the 11% trainer-jockey record together is more modest. Usually prominent, he races handily on or close to the lead and should be involved in the early battle. With an OR of 79 and recent form of 45518, his Nottingham success last time marks him out as a major player.
-
3Musical Force54/100
Musical Force is a modest performer who showed clear improvement when winning a nursery over this trip at Leicester last time. The Harry Eustace yard has a 16% strike rate at Nottingham from 43 runs, and Kaiya Fraser is operating at a striking 25% from 20 rides here. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and is likely to set the fractions in what is forecast to be a genuinely-run race. The trip is a known strength, yet with no runs on good ground he remains unproven on the surface. His form figures read 931 and he carries an official rating of 73.
-
4Pure Mint53/100
Pure Mint showed fair form when winning a maiden over today's trip on debut but was well held in a subsequent Listed race. The Simon & Ed Crisford yard has a 16% strike rate at Nottingham from 82 runs, while Harry Davies sits on a 9% record from 56 rides here. With only two runs on the board the colt remains lightly raced and is trying the track for the first time. He tends to make the running or race on the pace, though that judgement is based on limited evidence. Dropping in class from Listed company, he brings an OR of 84 and form figures of 16.
-
5Undercover Affair53/100
Undercover Affair is a fair performer who has been busy and shown a mixed bag of results across six starts. He has placed on good ground and at this trip before but was well held when last seen over 5f, and has only managed a placing from one run here. The David Evans yard has a 10% strike rate at Nottingham from 501 runs, while Marco Ghiani posts a 15% record from 68 rides. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and will be looking to come from off the pace. His recent form reads 231857 and he carries an OR of 79.
-
6Tumishi51/100
Tumishi is a fair 2-year-old with consistent form shown by 4317 and a win at today's trip from four starts. He has already run here once, finishing fourth, while the James Fanshawe yard holds a 16% strike-rate at Nottingham from 427 runs; the jockey's 7% record at the track is more modest and the horse remains lightly raced overall.
-
7Kingdom of Kush49/100
Kingdom of Kush is a fair performer who showed promise when runner-up on debut over 7f before finishing fourth last time. He drops back to 6f today where he has already been placed once from one run at the trip, and both trainer and jockey have solid Nottingham records, though he remains lightly raced with only two starts behind him.
-
8Donna Beauty48/100
Donna Beauty is a fair performer who has already won over today's trip on her only attempt at it. Her form figures of 671 show steady improvement and she remains lightly raced with scope to progress further, though the trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Nottingham is a negative while the jockey's 17% record offers some balance.
-
9Farasan45/100
Farasan has shown fair form across three runs, finishing no closer than fourth, and now drops back to 6f having failed to trouble the judge when tried at the trip earlier. The John & Thady Gosden yard hold a 21% strike rate at Nottingham from 71 runs and William Buick is operating at 22% from 214 rides here; he remains lightly raced overall and is not fully exposed.
-
10Horndean42/100
Horndean is a modest performer who has shown consistent form, finishing placed on two of his three starts at this trip. Stall nine is no help on a track where the draw often matters, though the yard's small sample here prevents any firm view on their local record while jockey Sean Levey brings a solid 16% strike rate at Nottingham from 164 rides.
KTB verdict
Pride of Toledo is the KTB Selection. A fair 2-year-old who has already won over the trip and shown consistent form, he benefits from Clive Cox's solid 15% strike rate at Nottingham and Callum Rodriguez matching that figure from his own rides here. Usually held up, he is suited by the forecast genuinely-run pace and can produce his effort late. The main dangers are Washington Royale, who improved to win a similar race here last time with strong trainer course connections, and Musical Force, who comes off a nursery success over the trip with a good jockey record at the venue. Pure Mint and Undercover Affair add further depth to a competitive nursery.
KTB Selection Pride of Toledo
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:04 UTC, 1 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Tumishi | 11/2 | LiveScore Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 1:58 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score?
Pride of Toledo with 61/100.
How many runners have previous course form at Nottingham?
Three: Washington Royale, Tumishi and Undercover Affair.
Which two horses are noted as front-runners or prominent?
Musical Force and Pure Mint tend to make the running or race on the pace; Washington Royale and Kingdom of Kush usually race handily.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at Nottingham among those riding in this race?
Kaiya Fraser with 25% from 20 rides.
Which horse is dropping in class from a Listed race?
Pure Mint.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies