4:32 York
This Class 3 Sky Bet Extra Places Handicap over 1m5f188y at York on soft ground brings together a field of 14, several of whom are dropping in class while others step up. The KTB Fit scores identify Master Builder as the clear top pick on 68, with Divine Knight, All In You, Real Dream and Hermetic completing the principals between 59 and 53. Overall the numbers suggest a competitive heat where course form, soft-ground ability and the ability to handle a strong pace will be key.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strongly positive, and the early fractions are expected to be strong. Minstrel Knight, Alfred Wincham and Cascade Hall are all inclined to race prominently or make the running, which raises the possibility of the pace collapsing in the latter stages. That scenario would play to the strengths of the numerous hold-up performers, several of whom are rated to produce their effort late and pounce off a strong gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Master Builder KTB Selection68/100
Master Builder is a useful performer who showed he retains plenty of ability when winning at this track last time. He acts on soft ground with a win and a place from three starts and has a solid course record of one win from four runs here. The step up in trip is an unknown but he has already won over this distance. David Menuisier’s 13% strike rate at York from 46 runs is respectable, while Sean Levey matches that 13% from a much larger sample. The pair’s combined trainer-jockey record reads 10/59 with an A/E of 1.57. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is ideally positioned to benefit if the strong pace collapses.
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2Divine Knight59/100
Divine Knight is a fair performer who has won once at today’s trip from only two attempts and has shown he can be competitive on soft ground with a placed effort from two starts. Recent form of 633541 suggests he is in reasonable order and the yard’s solid 18% strike rate at York from a big sample adds some encouragement. First run here is neutral given the high data confidence from ratings and history. William Haggas and Tom Marquand combine with a 21% strike rate overall though their York figures are more modest at 18% and 14% respectively. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be suited by the likely strong pace.
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3All In You57/100
All In You is a fair performer who has shown useful form in the past but has been below that level on both starts this year. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried and makes his first visit to York. Trainer Warren Greatrex has only a small sample here while the jockey has a solid 22% strike rate from nine rides at the track. Finley Marsh’s positive York record stands out in an otherwise modest trainer-jockey line of 8% with an A/E of 0.72. Usually held up, though with only medium confidence in that assessment, he could still be well placed if the leaders go hard early.
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4Real Dream56/100
Real Dream is a useful performer who has shown some spark at this track, finishing third on his most recent visit. He has won over today’s trip but his recent form is patchy and he was well beaten on his only soft-ground start. The yard has a modest record here while the jockey is still seeking his first York winner. Ian Williams and Joe Leavy combine at 13% with an A/E of 0.77; the trainer’s 8% strike rate at York from 220 runs is fair but the rider’s 0% from 15 rides is a concern. Usually held up with high confidence, he will hope the strong pace takes its toll on those up front.
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5Hermetic53/100
Hermetic is a fair performer who has shown consistent but limited ability in five runs this year, finishing no better than fourth. He ran respectably when fourth over course and distance on his most recent start, though he has yet to win at this trip. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at York, but the small sample on soft ground leaves suitability unconfirmed. Ian Williams and P J McDonald team up with a 13% strike rate and A/E of 0.90; both have 8-10% figures at the track from sizeable samples. Run-style is held up though with only limited evidence and low confidence, so his effectiveness in a strongly-run race remains to be seen.
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6Spartan Army50/100
Spartan Army is a useful performer who has won on soft ground and arrives in decent shape after a mixed 2024. First run at York and a drop back from 2m both pose fresh questions while the yard’s modest 5% strike-rate here adds no confidence. Jockey’s 8% record at the track is slightly better but still below par.
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7Minstrel Knight50/100
Minstrel Knight is a fair horse who has won both starts at this trip and looks suited by the step back up in distance. He has won on soft ground and showed decent course form when scoring here from one run. The yard has a modest 7% strike-rate at York while Tudhope is operating at 10%. Tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, so he is likely to be prominent in a race with a strong pace shape.
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8Bulletin50/100
Bulletin is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing in the first four in five of his last six starts. He has shown he can handle soft ground with a placed effort from his only run on it and has also placed over today’s trip. The yard’s modest record at York is a slight concern while the jockey’s strike rate here is more respectable. Usually held up with medium confidence.
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9Northwest Passage50/100
Northwest Passage is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form on soft ground, finishing second of nine over course and distance last time out. He steps up in trip again today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at York from 55 runs while jockey sits on 8% from 360 rides here. Usually held up with high confidence.
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10Spirit of Acklam47/100
Spirit of Acklam is a fair performer who has been consistent at this level, finishing placed on three of his last four starts. He has run just once at York, finishing seventh, while the trainer and jockey both hold a 5% strike rate here from large samples. He has shown ability on soft ground with a win and two places from three runs, but today steps up in trip as a fresh question. Usually held up with high confidence.
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11High Point44/100
High Point is a fair performer on his day who has won twice on soft ground from five attempts and also has a win at today’s trip from just two runs. He steps back up in distance after a string of modest efforts and makes his first start at York where the yard’s record is poor. Data confidence is high but his recent form leaves him with plenty to find. Usually held up with high confidence.
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12Alfred Wincham43/100
Alfred Wincham is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and short race history. He steps up in trip today having shown useful form over shorter distances, including a win and a second from his last three starts. The yard has too small a sample at York to judge while Orr’s modest 6% strike rate from 206 rides here offers no particular encouragement. Tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence.
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13Cascade Hall38/100
Cascade Hall is a modest performer who has been competitive on soft ground without winning and has placed both starts at this trip. York record is poor though and the trainer’s modest strike-rate at the track offers little encouragement. Jockey remains winless from 20 rides here. Tends to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence and will help ensure a strong gallop.
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14Haveyoumissedme35/100
Haveyoumissedme is a modest performer with a solid recent record of placed efforts but has failed to land a blow in two runs at this track. Iain Jardine has a poor 3% strike-rate here from 129 runs while Andrew Mullen is similarly limited at 3% from 260 rides. Goes up in trip having already won over this distance but the wide draw in stall 13 is far from ideal on soft ground. Usually held up with high confidence.
KTB verdict
Master Builder stands out as the KTB Selection. He looked back to his best when winning over course and distance last time, boasts a solid record on soft ground and at York, and his hold-up style is perfectly suited to the strong pace that is anticipated. The drop in class is another plus. Divine Knight, who has won over the trip and shown soft-ground competence, is the most obvious danger, while All In You, Real Dream and Hermetic all bring plausible claims if the race falls their way. The strong pace shape nevertheless makes this an open-looking handicap.
KTB Selection Master Builder
This is the narrative read of the 4:32 York. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the York racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the York results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the York racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited by the expected strong pace?
Master Builder, who is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence, is well placed if the strong pace collapses late.
How many runners are dropping in class?
Master Builder, All In You, Real Dream, Hermetic, Spartan Army and Bulletin are all dropping in class.
Who are the main front-runners in the race?
Minstrel Knight, Alfred Wincham and Cascade Hall are all inclined to race prominently or make the running.
Which horse has the best recent course and distance form?
Northwest Passage finished second over course and distance last time out, while Hermetic was a respectable fourth over C&D on his latest start.
What is the trainer with the strongest York strike rate among the principals?
William Haggas has an 18% strike rate at York from 789 runs.
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