1:30 Roscommon
This 7f111y maiden for colts and geldings at Roscommon on soft ground brings together an 11-runner field where experience is unevenly spread. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with three horses tied on 53, signalling a race in which small margins and how the steadily-run pace shape unfolds could prove decisive. Karrygrant heads the ratings on the back of consistent placed form, while several lightly raced types and a debutant add layers of uncertainty to what looks a tactical affair.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay. Karrygrant is the one most likely to race prominently and see out his race strongly from that position, while the majority of the field, including State Of Wyoming, Resurgence, Hassaniya and Mr Mercury, prefer to be held up. This sets up a key question of whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the closers will be able to pick their way through in the straight on this soft surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Karrygrant KTB Selection53/100
Karrygrant is a fair 3-year-old boasting a string of solid minor honours, including placed efforts on soft ground. He drops back from a mile to a trip at which he has been placed without winning, and first-time headgear is now fitted after he could finish only fourth on his sole visit to Roscommon. The trainer holds a 14% strike rate at the track from 129 runs with an A/E of 0.8, while jockey Ben Coen operates at 15% from 139 rides with an A/E of 1.06. Both trainer and jockey therefore bring established records around the course average. His prominent run-style, usually racing handily on or close to the lead, looks ideally suited to the expected steadily-run pace. Placed twice from two starts on soft ground, he enters this as a competitive sort who has shown consistency without yet breaking his maiden.
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2State Of Wyoming53/100
State Of Wyoming remains lightly raced with just two starts behind him and modest form to date. He drops back from 1m2f to 7½f with first-time headgear fitted, a combination that could unlock improvement. The yard boasts a strong 41% strike rate at Roscommon from 27 runs with an A/E of 1.4, though jockey W. J. Lee is on an 11% strike rate from 332 rides here with an A/E of 0.89. Having had no previous runs on soft ground he arrives unproven on the surface. His held-up run-style means he will be looking to produce his effort late in what is expected to be a steadily-run race. While his form is modest so far, the trainer's record at the venue gives him clear each-way interest.
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3A Good Yarn53/100
A Good Yarn displayed fair promise when finishing third on debut over 6f and then backed that up with a solid sixth next time out. The step up to 7½f today is an unknown that could bring further progress or expose limitations. Trainer Aidan Anthony Howard has an 11% strike rate at Roscommon from 56 runs with an A/E of 1.26, while jockey W. M. Lordan is on 8% from 333 rides with an A/E of 0.72, so both have established if not especially strong course records. He typically settles in mid-division and will need to find the right rhythm in a tactical affair. With form figures of 63 he remains open to improvement at this trip on soft ground where he has had just one previous run without placing.
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4Resurgence51/100
Resurgence is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning, including twice at this trip. He drops back from 1m1f with first-time headgear now applied. The trainer has a 13% strike rate at Roscommon from 489 runs with an A/E of 0.87, and jockey Shane Foley records 10% from 346 rides with an A/E of 0.79, both representing solid course records. Having had no previous runs on soft ground he is unproven on the surface. His held-up run-style, in which he usually produces his effort late, should see him coming into the race in the straight if the pace is steady as anticipated. With an official rating of 80 he brings the highest mark in the field and cannot be dismissed.
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5Spider Star47/100
Spider Star is lightly raced with just two runs and form figures of 05 to his name so far. He steps up from 6f to an untried 7.5f on soft ground where the small sample prevents any firm conclusions about trip or surface suitability. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate at Roscommon from 47 runs with an A/E of 1.08, while the 7lb claimer Adam Browne-Souza has recorded a 0% strike rate from just four rides here. He typically settles in mid-division. While there are positives to be taken from his inexperience, the lack of established form and the unproven conditions mean he remains one who needs to show more to be a major player.
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6Hassaniya47/100
Hassaniya is a modest performer who has been placed on soft ground and at this trip without winning. He drops back from 1m1½f having shown mixed form recently, including a second and two thirds earlier in the campaign. The trainer has a 14% strike rate at Roscommon from 50 runs with an A/E of 1.37, while Colin Keane is operating at 17% from 301 rides with an A/E of 0.88. His held-up style means he will be looking to come from off the pace.
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7Mr Mercury46/100
Mr Mercury has shown very little in three starts to date with form figures of 008 and remains hard to fancy on what he has produced so far. The drop back from a mile to this 7½f trip is an unknown and the small sample means going suitability is also unclear on soft ground. Trainer J A Nash has a modest 4% strike rate here from 47 runs with an A/E of 0.53, while Leigh Roche records a solid 8% from 153 rides at the track. He usually races held up.
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8California Max44/100
California Max is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The yard has a modest 3% strike-rate from 31 runs at Roscommon with an A/E of 0.79 while the claiming jockey is 1-16 here. Pedigree and sales background will need to carry the assessment given the low data confidence on this soft surface.
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9Airborne Ranger43/100
Airborne Ranger has only one run in the book so needs to improve markedly to be competitive. He steps up in trip today having been beaten on his sole attempt at this distance. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at Roscommon from 83 runs with an A/E of 0.68 and the jockey's poor 2% record at the track from 66 rides add further negatives to a profile that remains very hard to assess on soft ground.
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10Caption This42/100
Caption This has shown very little in three starts to date and the form figures of 009 tell their own story. The trainer has a modest 4% strike rate at Roscommon from 47 runs with an A/E of 0.53 while jockey Robbie Colgan is on 4% from 226 rides here with an A/E of 0.74. He steps up in trip today with a small sample on this soft ground so remains one to treat with caution. He usually races held up.
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11Howya Pal40/100
Howya Pal has only one prior run and steps up in trip to 7½f today. The yard has a 0% strike rate from seven runs at Roscommon with an A/E of 0 while Seamie Heffernan is operating at just 4% from 430 rides here with an A/E of 0.49. With such a light profile and low data confidence the colt remains very hard to assess on soft ground. He typically settles in mid-division.
KTB verdict
Karrygrant stands out as the KTB Selection. He brings by far the most consistent placed form, has already shown he handles soft ground, and his prominent run-style looks perfectly placed for a steadily-run race where being handy should pay. First-time headgear may help him find the necessary edge at a trip that has previously suited. The main dangers are State Of Wyoming, who represents a yard in excellent form at the track, and Resurgence, who arrives with the highest official rating and the benefit of headgear. A Good Yarn and Spider Star add further depth to what looks a competitive maiden.
KTB Selection Karrygrant
This is the narrative read of the 1:30 Roscommon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Roscommon racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Roscommon results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Roscommon racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most suited to the steadily-run pace shape?
Karrygrant, whose prominent run-style sees him race handily on or close to the lead with high confidence.
How many horses in the field are wearing first-time headgear?
Four: Karrygrant, State Of Wyoming, Resurgence and Hassaniya is without but the principals include three with the flag.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Roscommon in this race?
P. Twomey with a 41% strike rate from 27 runs and an A/E of 1.4.
Which horse has the highest official rating?
Resurgence on an OR of 80.
How has Karrygrant performed on soft ground previously?
He has been placed on both of his two starts on soft ground without winning.
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