Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming riders: 3.4%
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 2.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.5%+2.4
n=22 · A/E 2.20 · £1 +79.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.1
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.1
n=5 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −5.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
25%+22.9
n=4 · A/E 8.19 · £1 +97.00
When favourite
0%
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.4%+1.3
n=59 · A/E 1.12 · £1 +48.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 15-30-day break0% vs 2.1% · n=32
With a new jockey booking3.8% vs 2.1% · n=52 · A/E 1.38
In Flat races2.2% vs 2.1% · n=91 · A/E 0.59
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat9122.2%+16.50
Hurdle400%−4.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)3812.6%−31.50
Good2613.8%+75.00
Soft2000%−20.00
Good to Soft600%−6.00
Heavy500%−5.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW)3313%−26.50
Roscommon1400%−14.00
Cork700%−7.00
Tipperary6116.7%+95.00
Laytown (AW)500%−5.00
Limerick500%−5.00
Naas500%−5.00
Down Royal400%−4.00
Gowran Park300%−3.00
Curragh200%−2.00
Fairyhouse200%−2.00
Bellewstown200%−2.00
Ballinrobe200%−2.00
Galway100%−1.00
Leopardstown100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite100%0.00−1.00
2nd–3rd fav6116.7%1.08+0.50
4th–6th fav1600%0.00−16.00
7th+ in betting7211.4%0.76+29.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f4612.2%−39.50
1m – 1m1f2000%−20.00
Under 6f1915.3%+82.00
1m2f – 1m4f500%−5.00
1m5f – 2m400%−4.00
2m5f – 3m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20223226.3%+75.50
20233400%−34.00
2024800%−8.00
20251100%−11.00
20261000%−10.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps6011.7%−53.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners3113.2%+70.00
14-16 runners3000%−30.00
8-10 runners1715.9%−10.50
17+ runners900%−9.00
5-7 runners800%−8.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 13 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 13 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Charlie Fellowes (2); 7 had their first archived run for this yard.
2 have since run for another yard; 11 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0250000070000
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Rock On Dandy (FR) — ASM Chartered Accountants Race Dundalk (AW) · Feb 2018
£12,320
Tamazu (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Tipperary · Aug 2022
£8,850
Sir Danilo (GB) — Celebrate At Dundalk Stadium Maiden Dundalk (AW) · Mar 2018
Progeny have won 10.1% of 2,341 runs since 2008 (166 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 13.5% from 126. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.7% from 224. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.3% from 143.
Progeny have won 9.2% of 4,522 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.9% from 325.
Pride Of Dubai (AUS)10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 13.1% of 1,162 runs since 2008 (92 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 17.7% from 385. Weakest on Soft going: 8.3% from 192. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 17% from 200.
Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,141 runs since 2008 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 254. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 144.
Progeny have won 9.9% of 704 runs since 2008 (133 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.2% from 106.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 26 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 410 · newest first
The latest 50 of 410 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 25 June 2006 to 12 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Fergal Birrane's strike rate?
Fergal Birrane has won 2 of 95 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 2.1% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Fergal Birrane do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 33 runners (3%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Fergal Birrane's Fair A/E?
0.58, from 95 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fergal Birrane·SR 2.1%·A/E 0.58
1Tap Share in the toolbar2Scroll down the sheet3Tap Add to Home Screen, then Add
1Open your browser's menu (the three dots)2Tap Add to Home screen or Install app
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy