4:45 Catterick
This Class 2 William Hill Catterick Dash Handicap over 5f on good to soft ground features a field of 12 with several useful performers lining up. The KTB Fit Scores highlight Baker Blue as the clear top pick on 72, ahead of Gold Star Hero on 65 and Lexington Blitz on 63, while the rest of the field sits between 59 and 43. With a strong pace shape indicated and multiple front-runners present, the race sets up to test stamina late on and could suit those with a more patient run-style.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two or more habitual front-runners in Baker Blue, Gold Star Hero, Lexington Blitz and Accrual all tending to race on or near the lead. This could set the race up for late closers as the pace potentially collapses in the final furlong. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms and hold on or if the hold-up performers will be able to pick them off as the race unfolds.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Baker Blue KTB Selection72/100
Baker Blue is a useful performer who arrives in solid form after a win and a fourth on his last two starts. He has already shown he handles good to soft ground with a win from his only run on it and has scored twice over today's 5f trip. The yard and jockey both have strong records at Catterick while the horse makes his first visit to the track. Dropping in class from an OR of 99, the three-year-old is drawn in stall 1 and his front-running style could be an asset if he can secure an uncontested lead early. Trainer Dylan Cunha posts a 20% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.1 from 15 runs while jockey Edward Greatrex is operating at a 40% strike rate with an A/E of 1.78 from 15 rides.
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2Gold Star Hero65/100
Gold Star Hero is a useful performer who arrives in solid nick judged on the 502531 sequence and has already won on good to soft as well as at this trip. Michael Bell’s 24% strike rate from 168 runs at Catterick is a plus while Jason Hart’s 15% from 520 rides here is respectable. First run at the track is neutral given the horse’s overall record and the high data confidence. The four-year-old is drawn in stall 2 and his front-running tendencies mean he will be prominent from the start in what is likely to be a strongly-run affair. Trainer and jockey combined show 2 wins from 28 rides here with an A/E of 0.32.
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3Lexington Blitz63/100
Lexington Blitz is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just two visits. He has shown his best form on good to soft ground with two placed efforts from as many starts though he is yet to win on it. Recent form has been mixed but the Catterick stats for both trainer and jockey are solid enough. Drawn in stall 4, the four-year-old will be another to race prominently and his course record of one win from two starts adds to his claims. Robert Cowell has a 15% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 1 from 81 runs while Paul Mulrennan is on 11% with an A/E of 0.9 from 665 rides.
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4Toca Madera59/100
Toca Madera is a useful performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins from his last four starts. He has won on good to soft ground and at this trip, though he is making his first visit to Catterick from stall 9. Trainer David O'Meara has a 13% strike rate here from 565 runs while jockey David Nolan is on 8% from 306 rides. Stepping up in class from an OR of 99, the five-year-old is a hold-up performer whose late effort could be well suited if the anticipated strong pace materialises and the leaders fold. His recent form of 302011 underlines that he is in good heart at present.
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5Sir Yoshi55/100
Sir Yoshi is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning for some time, as shown by his string of mid-field finishes. He has won over this trip in the past but his only run on good to soft ground brought no joy. The trainer holds an 11 percent strike rate here from 293 runs while the jockey is on 12 percent from 270 rides. Stepping up in class from an OR of 85, the four-year-old is drawn in stall 5 and his held-up run-style with high confidence could see him benefiting if the race develops as expected with a strong pace up front. Recent form of 939483 reflects his steady level without quite landing a blow of late.
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6Spartan Arrow52/100
Spartan Arrow is a fair performer who has won six times at this trip from 23 starts but arrives in ordinary form having failed to place in any of his last six starts. He has no experience of Catterick and has failed to win or place from three runs on good to soft ground. The yard and jockey both hold a 17% strike rate at the track.
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7Ziggy's Triton52/100
Ziggy's Triton is a useful performer who has won seven times at this trip and showed his best form when finishing second over course and distance on his only run here. He has been in and out this season but ran well when winning at Musselburgh last time. Trainer David O'Meara has a solid 13% strike rate at Catterick from a big sample while jockey Mark Winn posts a 10% record at the track.
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8Schrodinger's Cat51/100
Schrodinger's Cat is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip from 17 starts but has been out of form for some time with a string of six poor efforts. Only one run on good to soft ground so far and that produced no win or place. Trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate here from 164 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first Catterick success from six rides.
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9Novamay49/100
Novamay is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at this track from just two visits. She has been in and out of form this year but the Catterick course record and solid recent ratings give her a realistic chance in a race of this grade. The trainer has a modest record here while the jockey is less experienced at the track.
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10Miraculous49/100
Miraculous is a fair performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent win at a lower level but also several poor efforts. He has run only once at Catterick, finishing sixth, while the yard has a solid 12% strike rate here from a huge sample and the jockey sits on a 6% record. He is proven on good to soft ground but drops back to 5f today having failed to win in five previous attempts at the trip.
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11Accrual47/100
Accrual is a fair performer who has won five times at this trip from 22 starts and arrives in reasonable form having shown a mix of placed efforts and wins in recent runs. Has never been to Catterick before but handles good to soft ground, having been placed once from two attempts. Trainer Ruth Carr has a solid 12% strike rate here from a big sample while jockey William Pyle is less prolific with a 6% record from 84 rides.
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12Vintage Clarets43/100
Vintage Clarets is a fair sort who has won twice from three runs at Catterick and also has a solid record at this trip with seven wins from 48 starts. He acts on good to soft ground with two wins and six places from 12 starts but his recent form of 237667 is patchy and the yard has a 0% strike rate from 14 runs here. The 5lb claimer helps but a wide draw in stall 12 adds another negative.
KTB verdict
Baker Blue stands out as the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer in solid form, has already won on good to soft and over the trip, and benefits from a yard and jockey with excellent Catterick records. His front-running style from stall 1 could allow him to dictate in a race where the strong pace is expected to test those up front late on. The main dangers are likely to come from Gold Star Hero and Lexington Blitz, both prominent runners with strong Catterick trainer and jockey combinations, while Toca Madera represents the chief threat from off the pace if the race falls apart as anticipated.
KTB Selection Baker Blue
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 17 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Baker Blue | 7/2 | William Hill |
| Gold Star Hero | 9/2 | William Hill |
| Lexington Blitz | 17/2 | William Hill |
| Toca Madera | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Sir Yoshi | 12/1 | BetTom |
| Spartan Arrow | 11/1 | William Hill |
| Ziggy's Triton | 10/1 | William Hill |
| Schrodinger's Cat | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Novamay | 20/1 | William Hill |
| Miraculous | 25/1 | William Hill |
| Accrual | 18/1 | William Hill |
| Vintage Clarets | 11/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Catterick results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Catterick racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Baker Blue, Gold Star Hero, Lexington Blitz and Accrual are all front-runners or tend to race on the pace.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
The strong pace with two or more habitual front-runners could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
Which horse has the best Catterick trainer and jockey combination among the principals?
Baker Blue, with trainer Dylan Cunha at 20% strike rate A/E 1.1 and jockey Edward Greatrex at 40% strike rate A/E 1.78.
How many wins has Ziggy's Triton recorded at this trip?
Ziggy's Triton has won seven times at this trip.
Which runner has the strongest course record at Catterick?
Vintage Clarets has won twice from three runs at Catterick.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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