3:42 Leopardstown
The Trigo Stakes is a competitive Listed event over 1m2f at Leopardstown on good ground, featuring an 11-runner field where most contenders are rated in the 99-104 OR bracket. KTB's Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Snellen heading the numbers on 60, just ahead of Hazdann (59) and Cowardofthecounty (58), underlining how little separates the principals on current form and track profiles. The race is shaped by the presence of a lone front-runner who is expected to enjoy an uncontested lead, which adds a clear tactical dimension on a track where late closers often struggle to reel in such an advantage.
How the race shapes up
With a high-confidence lone-leader pace shape, Moments of Joy is set to make the running with little to no pressure from the rest of the field, allowing her an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for the predominantly held-up principals to overcome in the straight. The majority of the field, including the top five in the KTB rankings, are confirmed hold-up types who will be produced late, meaning the key question is whether any of them can generate sufficient closing pace on good ground to bridge the gap to the clear leader. Those racing prominently or in mid-division may find themselves at an advantage if the tempo remains steady, but the shape strongly favours the one who can dictate from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Snellen KTB Selection60/100
Snellen arrives with a KTB Fit Score of 60 and tops the card as the selection. A useful performer with an official rating of 104, he has won over this trip and boasts solid form on good ground, recording three wins from eleven starts on the surface. He has also won at Leopardstown from five runs at the track, though his recent form of 16-356 is a touch patchy. Gavin Cromwell operates at a 6% strike rate at the track from 446 runs with an A/E of 0.69, while W. J. Lee has an 8% strike rate from 866 rides here with an A/E of 0.79; their combined record reads 1/10 (10%) with an A/E of 0.76. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 6, he will need to generate a strong late run if the uncontested leader is allowed to get away.
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2Hazdann59/100
Hazdann is rated just behind on a KTB Fit Score of 59 and holds an official rating of 103. A useful performer, he won readily on reappearance at the Curragh before running well when seventh in a stronger race at Naas last time out. He drops back in trip having won at this distance on his only previous attempt and has shown he handles good ground, with one win from three starts on the surface. D K Weld boasts a solid 17% strike rate at Leopardstown from 3175 runs with an A/E of 0.92, while Chris Hayes has an 8% strike rate from 1226 rides here with an A/E of 0.78; their combined record is 147/1188 (12%) with an A/E of 0.77. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 8, he is likely to be another chasing the leader from off the pace.
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3Cowardofthecounty58/100
Cowardofthecounty carries a KTB Fit Score of 58 and an official rating of 101. A useful performer who has run five times at Leopardstown without winning but has been placed once, he steps up to 1m2f for the first time having shown his best form over a mile so far. He has recorded two wins from eight starts on good ground with a further three places. Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a 12% strike rate at the track from 1095 runs with an A/E of 0.88, while Dylan Browne McMonagle has a 13% strike rate from 294 rides here with an A/E of 0.9; their combined record is 320/1686 (19%) with an A/E of 0.91. Usually held up and producing his effort late from a favourable draw of 2, he will be looking to improve on his placed effort at the track.
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4Diego El Queso55/100
Diego El Queso is next up on a KTB Fit Score of 55 with an official rating of 99. A useful performer who has won once from two starts at Leopardstown, he drops back to a trip he has won at before. His recent form of -21260 shows solid placed efforts mixed with lesser runs, while he has been competitive on good ground without winning on three starts. G. M. Lyons records an 11% strike rate at the track from 1189 runs with an A/E of 0.82, and Colin Keane has a 14% strike rate from 901 rides here with an A/E of 0.84; their combined record reads 699/3554 (20%) with an A/E of 0.92. Stepping up in class and usually held up from draw 9, he will need to produce a strong late effort against the leader.
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5Sunchart54/100
Sunchart comes in with a KTB Fit Score of 54 and an official rating of 100. A useful performer with solid placed form at this track, including two seconds, though he has never won here in seven runs. He drops back from 1m4½f to a trip where he has won twice from ten starts, which looks more suitable on his recent efforts of 68-377. The yard and jockey both operate at a modest level around Leopardstown, with the trainer on 7% from 206 runs (A/E 0.75) and the jockey on 8% from 192 rides (A/E 0.86); their combined record is 133/1443 (9%) with an A/E of 0.87. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 7, he has two wins from sixteen starts on good ground with five places.
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6Moments of Joy53/100
Moments of Joy is a useful performer who has already won here over this trip on good ground. Dropping back from 1m4f should suit after a string of modest efforts, though the recent form figures show she has been beaten a long way on her last three starts; she is the clear front-runner in a race with a lone-leader pace shape.
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7Mr Vettori53/100
Mr Vettori is a useful performer who has shown that level in several runs this year. He drops back from 1m4f to 1m2f having failed to land a blow at the shorter trip on his two previous attempts, with one place from four starts on good ground. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 1851 runs at Leopardstown while the jockey is operating at 11% from 1027 rides here.
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8Nuit51/100
Nuit is a useful performer who has run well here on two of three visits, finishing placed without winning. He drops back in trip today having been out of the frame last time, though he has failed to win in two previous runs at this distance, with two places from five starts on good ground. Both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at Leopardstown.
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9Come What May49/100
Come What May has won his only start over today's trip. The yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Leopardstown from a huge sample of runners. Everything else rests on a very small base so this one is impossible to assess with any real confidence, particularly with no runs on good ground.
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10Alphecca43/100
Alphecca is a useful performer on his best days and has shown steady improvement in recent starts, finishing a solid second last time out. He is dropping back in trip today having been tried over 1m3f on his latest outing and holds no wins or places from three runs on good ground. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate at Leopardstown while Heffernan is more established here with a 10% record from over 1500 rides.
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11Sanctijude42/100
Sanctijude is a fair performer who has shown a mixed bag this season with wins on both all-weather and turf but has also run poorly on several occasions. Only one previous run at Leopardstown resulted in a respectable fourth and he handles good ground with one win from five starts. Stepping up to this trip for the first time asks a fresh question of him.
KTB verdict
Snellen is the KTB Selection and tops the Fit Scores in a race where the numbers are very close at the head of the market. His record of three wins from eleven starts on good ground, coupled with a Leopardstown success from five runs at the track, gives him solid claims as a useful performer who can produce a strong late effort from his hold-up position. The uncontested lead enjoyed by the front-runner poses the main danger to all the closers, with Hazdann and Cowardofthecounty the most obvious threats on their recent efforts and course profiles. Diego El Queso and Sunchart add further depth to what looks a typically tight Listed contest at this venue.
KTB Selection Snellen
This is the narrative read of the 3:42 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leopardstown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Leopardstown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to set the uncontested lead?
Moments of Joy, whose run-style is front-runner with high confidence.
How many of the top five principals are confirmed hold-up types?
All five: Snellen, Hazdann, Cowardofthecounty, Diego El Queso and Sunchart are listed as usually held up and producing effort late.
Which horse has the strongest trainer strike rate at Leopardstown among the principals?
Hazdann, with D K Weld recording 17% from 3175 runs (A/E 0.92).
Has Snellen won over the course and distance?
He has won at Leopardstown and won over this trip, though not necessarily in the same race.
Which runner is stepping up in class?
Diego El Queso.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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