4:12 Leopardstown
This 19-runner handicap at Leopardstown over 1m2f on good ground forms part of the build-up to the Christmas Festival, with a competitive field featuring several course winners and fair performers. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Walhaan on 61, with Dark Viper, Sinbad My Dad, Molto Amichi and Darius Dark all within a narrow margin. Course form and recent consistency will be key in a race where the pace shape points to an uncontested lead.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, as Walhaan is the only confirmed front-runner and should be allowed an easy time on the front end from his draw in stall 4. With so many held-up types in the field, including Dark Viper, Sinbad My Dad, Molto Amichi, Darius Dark and the majority of the remainder, there will be little pressure on the leader and the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line from the straight. The key question is whether any of the closers can bridge the gap on a horse given an uncontested lead on his favoured track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Walhaan KTB Selection61/100
Walhaan is a modest 10-year-old who has won twice at Leopardstown from ten runs and holds a solid course record overall. He drops back to his winning trip today having scored four times from sixteen starts at this distance, though his recent form of 438003 suggests he is struggling to match his best. The trainer records a 9% strike-rate here from 69 runs while the jockey is operating at 7% from 111 rides. With a tendency to make the running or race on the pace, he is ideally placed to take advantage of the lone-leader shape and should get an easy lead from stall 4. His record of one win from eight on good ground is modest but his two wins here add weight to his claims.
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2Dark Viper59/100
Dark Viper is a fair handicapper who knows his way around Leopardstown having won three times from six runs here. He drops back in trip from 1m4f to 1m2f today where he has been beaten all three previous attempts at the distance. The yard and jockey both have solid records at the track though neither is firing at a high strike rate. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be aiming to come from off the pace in a race where the leader may get an easy time. His record of two wins from nine on good ground and three wins from six at the course make him a clear danger.
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3Sinbad My Dad58/100
Sinbad My Dad is a fair performer who has won over this trip and at Leopardstown. He has a solid course record of one win from four runs here and drops back from 1m4f to a distance that has suited him before. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate from 92 runs at the track while the jockey is operating at 12% from 52 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will need the race to fall right if the leader gets an uncontested advantage. His recent form of 492816 shows flashes of ability and he remains a contender on his best days.
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4Molto Amichi58/100
Molto Amichi is a fair performer with a solid record at this track, including three placed efforts from five runs. He steps up in trip today having already shown he can be competitive at 1m2f without winning, though his recent form has been patchy. The first-time headgear is an unknown and the trainer's modest 7% strike-rate here adds a note of caution. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be coming from off the pace in a race that could suit those ridden positively. His placed efforts at Leopardstown without a win underline his consistency at the venue.
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5Darius Dark57/100
Darius Dark is a fair sort who has won once from three starts at Leopardstown and holds a solid record on good ground. His recent form has been patchy after a strong start to the year, and he was well held when last seen over this trip. The wide draw in stall 18 adds another negative for a horse whose trainer and jockey both sit below the track average here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he faces a stiff task from the widest berth if the leader is allowed to dictate. His win here and one win from one on good ground are the main positives.
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6Nermal56/100
Nermal is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and three placings from eight starts. He drops back from 1m4½f to a trip he has won over already, and his record on good ground reads a solid one win and two places from just two starts. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, though the trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Leopardstown.
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7Harana55/100
Harana is a fair performer who has run respectably without winning or placing in two visits to Leopardstown. He steps up in trip today having already won at this distance on his only previous attempt, while he has shown he can be competitive on good ground. First-time headgear is now applied and he is usually held up.
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8Great Mover52/100
Great Mover is a modest performer who has placed twice from four runs at Leopardstown without winning. He steps up in trip today having won once from five starts at this distance though his recent form is patchy. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate here from a large sample while the 3lb claimer has limited track data.
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9Thyer51/100
Thyer is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning of late, finishing in the first five on his last four starts. He has a solid record on good ground with two wins and four places from nine runs, though he is now dropping back from 1m4f to a trip at which he has placed but never scored. This is his first run at Leopardstown.
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10Rest Your Mind50/100
Rest Your Mind is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability in recent starts, finishing second and fourth in his last two outings. He drops back in trip to 1m2f today having last run over 1m4f, which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a solid 10% strike rate from 112 runs at Leopardstown while the jockey operates at 8% from 866 rides here.
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11Galileo Noir49/100
Galileo Noir is a fair performer who has shown mixed form since a promising win earlier this season. He steps up in trip today having been well held over shorter on his last two starts and first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer and jockey both have solid records at Leopardstown.
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12Berto Ramirez47/100
Berto Ramirez is a modest performer who has been placed once in four runs at Leopardstown without winning. He drops back from 2m to a trip he has tried six times without success, though he has shown ability on good ground with a win and two places from eight starts. The trainer is still seeking a first Leopardstown winner from 35 attempts while the 5lb claimer has a solid 12% strike rate here from 17 rides.
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13Spacebound47/100
Spacebound has shown consistent placed form in four of his five runs and looks a fair performer on the balance of his ratings. He steps up to 1m2f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a modest 5% strike rate from 22 runs at Leopardstown while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
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14Java Wood46/100
Java Wood is a modest performer who has been inconsistent of late and is drawn wide in stall 19. He has shown some ability at this trip in the past but was well held on his only previous run here and has failed to place in five runs on good ground. The jockey has a solid 10% strike rate at Leopardstown from a big sample of rides.
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15Nibras Rainbow45/100
Nibras Rainbow is a modest performer who has run creditably on his last three starts without winning. He has won over today's trip and has a solid record on good ground with two wins and five places from ten runs. He also knows this track having scored here from four visits though the trainer's modest 6% strike rate at Leopardstown is a negative.
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16Autumn Twist43/100
Autumn Twist is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has run twice at Leopardstown without placing and both trainer and jockey have modest records here. He drops back from 2m to a trip he has won at before and acts on good ground.
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17Faro Island41/100
Faro Island is a modest performer who has won once at this trip from five attempts but was well held when last seen over 1m5f. He has run just once here at Leopardstown, finishing sixth, and holds a modest record on good ground with no wins or places from three starts. The trainer strikes at 5% here from 352 runs while the jockey is 9% from 1270 rides.
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18Lamar Valley39/100
Lamar Valley is a modest performer who has shown little in four runs so far and was well held when fourth at this track last time. Stall 14 looks no help from a wide draw and the yard's modest 5% strike rate at Leopardstown offers no encouragement. The trip seems about right having placed once over it without winning.
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19Dark Summit38/100
Dark Summit is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of poor efforts. He has run twice at Leopardstown without showing much and is 0-3 on good ground. He has been placed twice at this trip from eight attempts but that was earlier in his career.
KTB verdict
Walhaan is the KTB Selection. His course record of two wins from ten starts, combined with the ability to make the running in a race that looks to offer an uncontested lead, gives him a clear edge on his favoured track and trip. While he has been struggling to match his best of late, the shape of the race plays to his strengths as the lone front-runner. The main dangers are Dark Viper, who knows the track well with three wins from six starts here, and Sinbad My Dad, who has won over the trip and at the course. Molto Amichi and Darius Dark add further depth but both have question marks over trip or draw.
KTB Selection Walhaan
This is the narrative read of the 4:12 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leopardstown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Leopardstown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Walhaan rated the top selection despite his recent modest form?
His solid course record of two wins from ten runs at Leopardstown, ability to make the running in a lone-leader pace shape, and drop back to his winning trip outweigh the recent form of 438003.
How does the pace shape influence the race?
With a lone leader of high confidence and Walhaan the only front-runner, he is likely to get an uncontested lead that can be hard for the many held-up types to peg back.
What are the main course positives for the leading contenders?
Walhaan has won twice from ten runs here, Dark Viper three times from six, Sinbad My Dad once from four, Molto Amichi has three places from five, and Darius Dark once from three.
Which horses are stepping up or down in trip and what does KTB say?
Dark Viper drops back from 1m4f having been beaten in all three prior attempts at 1m2f; Sinbad My Dad drops back from 1m4f to a suited distance; Molto Amichi steps up in trip; Darius Dark was well held last time over this trip; Nermal drops back from 1m4½f to a trip won previously.
What impact do the first-time headgear flags have according to the supplied material?
First-time headgear is an unknown for both Molto Amichi and Harana, while it is also applied to Galileo Noir.
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