4:50 Bath
A Class 6 handicap division at Bath over a mile on good ground brings together a field of 14 limited performers where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top. The top five are separated by only 14 points on the KTB scale, with the selection carrying an OR of 57 and recent form of 521955 while several others arrive off the back of recent wins or consistent minor honours. Trainer and jockey combinations at the track vary markedly, from modest yard records to those operating above their numbers, and the race features a mix of course experience and first-time headgear among the principals.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape described as tentative on medium confidence, the race lacks a confirmed front-runner though Birkie Boy has a tendency to make the running or race prominently. Most of the field, including the selection, Sub Thirteen, Dalmally, Spirit Lead Me and the majority of the others, prefer to race in mid-division or be held up and produce their effort late. This setup poses the key question of whether the race will develop enough pace for the closers to be effective or whether a more prominent ride could steal an advantage on a day when the evidence for sustained speed is thin.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sceptic KTB Selection59/100
Sceptic is a limited performer who has won twice at this trip. He is 0-8 on good ground this season and has been well below form on his last two starts, though he drops back from 1m2f today having already shown he can win over the distance. The trainer has a solid 13% strike-rate at Bath from 144 runs with an A/E of 0.87, while the jockey is operating above her numbers here with a 20% strike rate and A/E of 1.91 from just five rides. He typically settles in midfield. His recent form reads 521955 from a draw of one and he carries an official rating of 57.
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2Sub Thirteen53/100
Sub Thirteen is a limited performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing in the first four in five of his last six starts. He has won twice from seven runs at Bath and is proven at this trip with two places from three attempts, though he steps back up from 6f today. First-time headgear is now applied. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Bath from 11 runs with an A/E of 1.12, and the jockey has an 8% strike rate from 147 rides with an A/E of 0.98. He is usually held up and produces his effort late, arrives with recent form of 324334 from draw seven off an OR of 51.
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3Dalmally53/100
Dalmally is a limited performer who has won twice at this trip from ten attempts and showed his best recent effort when winning a similar race last time out. He is placed once from two starts on good ground. The yard has a modest 7% strike-rate at Bath from 14 runs with an A/E of 0.8, while the jockey has a 12% strike rate from 154 rides here with an A/E of 0.77. This is his first run at the track from stall 13. He is usually held up and produces his effort late, with recent form of 586371 and an official rating of 59.
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4Spirit Lead Me51/100
Spirit Lead Me is a limited performer who has been out of form for most of this year but showed a bit more when winning a similar race over this trip last time. He has never run at Bath before and has failed to place in five starts on good ground. The trainer has a 12% strike rate at Bath from 162 runs with an A/E of 0.77, and the jockey has a 14% strike rate from 259 rides with an A/E of 0.91. He is usually held up and produces his effort late, carries an OR of 58 from draw 12 and has recent form of 999861.
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5Birkie Boy45/100
Birkie Boy is a limited horse who has shown a bit of ability on his day, winning four times including at this trip. He has run respectably over course and distance before but his latest efforts have been mixed and he is not the most consistent. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Bath from one run with an A/E of 0, while the jockey has a 50% strike rate from four rides with an A/E of 4.24. He tends to make the running or race on the pace on limited evidence, has three wins from ten on good with four places, and has course form of eighth and fourth with no win or place. Recent form is 441210 from draw ten off an OR of 49.
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6She's Ideal45/100
She's Ideal is a modest performer who has won two of her last six starts but has looked nothing like as good since. She has run only once at Bath and was well held, while the trainer's modest strike-rate here adds little confidence. Dropping back to 1m looks a reasonable move on her earlier placed efforts at the trip, though she remains vulnerable in this company. Recent form is 113847 from draw eight off an OR of 60.
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7Havana Halo45/100
Havana Halo is a limited horse who has shown very little in ten starts and arrives here in poor form. The step up to a mile is an unknown and the yard's modest record at Bath offers no encouragement. Recent form is -06278 from draw five off an OR of 58.
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8Pitney43/100
Pitney is a limited performer who has been around a bit and rarely gets involved at this level. He has shown some competitiveness on good ground and has won over today's trip in the past, but his Bath record is modest with a fifth on his only visit. The yard's respectable strike-rate here offers a crumb of encouragement though the jockey's record is weaker. Recent form is 43D250 from draw nine off an OR of 54.
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9Wildfell41/100
Wildfell is a limited performer who has struggled badly in four starts since returning from a long absence and looks no better than his recent form figures suggest. He has won at this trip in the past but steps back up in distance from 7f today while carrying the burden of a wide draw in stall 14. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates at Bath. Recent form is /00-00 from draw 14 off an OR of 52.
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10Georg Zhukov40/100
Georg Zhukov is a limited performer who has been running to form without winning lately and drops back from 1m2f to a trip he has won at before. He is 1 from 12 at this distance and has placed once from eight starts on good ground so the conditions look suitable enough. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Bath is a negative while the jockey's 10% record here offers some compensation. Recent form is 005942 from draw three off an OR of 48.
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11Mooretown Lad38/100
Mooretown Lad is a limited performer who has shown little spark this year and was well held on his only previous run at Bath. He has placed at this trip but lacks any real punch at the finish and the yard's solid course record is not enough to lift him here. Recent form is 472750 from draw four off an OR of 45.
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12Ocean Force36/100
Ocean Force is a limited performer who has shown very little in six starts this year and remains winless. Has been tried over this trip five times without success and was only fifth of six on his sole visit to Bath. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard's modest record here adds little encouragement. Recent form is 556670 from draw six off an OR of 50.
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13Blue Point Express34/100
Blue Point Express is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent runs and finished no better than sixth in two tries at this track. Steps up from 6f to 1m for the first time in a while having failed to place in five previous attempts at the trip. Trainer holds a solid 15% strike rate at Bath while the jockey is operating below par with a 9% record here. Recent form is -05437 from draw 11 off an OR of 44.
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14Raqraaq33/100
Raqraaq is a limited performer who has shown little at this track in four runs and is now 0-41 since last year. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and steps back up to a trip where he has won twice from 33 starts. The trainer and jockey both operate at a 5% strike rate here with below-par A/E figures. Recent form is 630858 from draw two off an OR of 46.
KTB verdict
Sceptic is the KTB Selection in a race where the principals are closely matched on the numbers. He is a limited performer who has won twice at this trip and drops back in distance today having already shown he can be effective over a mile, with the trainer enjoying a solid record at Bath and the jockey operating above her figures. The selection's ability to settle in midfield should suit the tentative pace shape. Main dangers include Sub Thirteen, who has been consistently in the first four of late, is twice a winner at the track and now tries first-time headgear, and Dalmally, who showed his best recent effort when winning a similar race last time out. Spirit Lead Me and Birkie Boy cannot be entirely ruled out on the back of their own recent successes.
KTB Selection Sceptic
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 19 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Sceptic | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Sub Thirteen | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Dalmally | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Spirit Lead Me | 6/4 | BoyleSports |
| Birkie Boy | 28/1 | BoyleSports |
| She's Ideal | 16/1 | William Hill |
| Havana Halo | 25/1 | William Hill |
| Pitney | 33/1 | BoyleSports |
| Wildfell | 70/1 | 7Bet |
| Georg Zhukov | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Mooretown Lad | 28/1 | BoyleSports |
| Ocean Force | 12/1 | BoyleSports |
| Blue Point Express | 16/1 | Bet365 |
| Raqraaq | 25/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 4:50 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Bath racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is proven at Bath and has been consistently placed recently?
Sub Thirteen has won twice from seven runs at Bath, is proven at this trip with two places from three attempts and has finished in the first four in five of his last six starts.
Which runner won a similar race last time out?
Dalmally showed his best recent effort when winning a similar race last time out and has won twice at this trip from ten attempts.
Which horse is dropping back from 1m2f?
Both Sceptic and Georg Zhukov are dropping back from 1m2f, with Sceptic having already shown he can win over a mile and Georg Zhukov having won at the trip before.
Who is the only horse in the field with first-time headgear among the top five?
Sub Thirteen is the only one of the top five with first-time headgear applied.
Which horse tends to make the running?
Birkie Boy tends to make the running or race on the pace on limited evidence and has three wins from ten starts on good ground.
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