2:10 Gowran Park
A 7f handicap for 3yos at Gowran Park on yielding to soft ground brings together a field of 14 with little previous experience of these exact conditions. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Cisterna and Nazario on 55, with the next three all within a point of each other, suggesting a race that could be decided by how the pace unfolds and which runners handle the ground best. Most of the field arrive unproven on yielding to soft, and course form is limited for many, making this an open-looking contest where the KTB numbers point to a handful of principals with similar claims.
How the race shapes up
With a lone leader likely to have an uncontested lead according to the pace shape, the race is expected to be run at a steady gallop that could prove hard for closers to overcome. Girl Bear is the only front-runner in the field and should take them along from stall 2, while the bulk of the principals including Cisterna, Nazario, Socratea, Dandymaria and Pocket Jacks are all held-up types who will be produced late. The key question is whether the leader can dictate matters and whether any of the patient runners can generate sufficient pace to reel it in on this surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Cisterna KTB Selection55/100
Cisterna comes into this as the KTB Selection with a Fit rating of 55 and an official rating of 68. A 3yo with recent form figures of 580201, it has shown enough to suggest it can be competitive from its draw in stall 7. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the run-style fits the shape of a race where the leader may get an easy time out front. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.85 from 327 runs, while the jockey has a 9% strike rate here with an A/E of 1 from 23 rides. The horse has been placed once from a single run at the course, though it remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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2Nazario55/100
Nazario shares the top KTB Fit rating of 55 and carries an official rating of 67 as a 3yo. Its recent form of 447487 indicates a horse that can be thereabouts without always finding the necessary extra. Usually held up with high confidence in that assessment, it will be coming from off the pace in a contest where the leader could prove difficult to catch. The trainer boasts an 18% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.11 from 345 runs, and the jockey has a 14% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.07 from 353 rides. It has one run at the track resulting in fourth place and is unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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3Socratea54/100
Socratea is rated 54 on the KTB Fit scale with an official rating of 65. The 3yo has recent form figures of 700 and will need to improve on that bare form to take a hand in this. Usually held up with medium confidence, it will be another runner looking to come from off the pace against a likely clear leader. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.99 from 360 runs, while the jockey has a 12% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.08 from 33 rides. There is no course form on record, and the horse remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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4Dandymaria50/100
Dandymaria has a KTB Fit rating of 50 and an official rating of 68. Its recent form of 40365 shows some consistency but also that it has yet to fully put it together. Usually held up with high confidence, the 3yo will be relying on a late run in a race where the pace may not collapse. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.79 from 215 runs, and the jockey has a 9% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.85 from 524 rides. There is no course form on record, and it is unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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5Pocket Jacks47/100
Pocket Jacks is rated 47 on KTB Fit with a modest official rating of 51. The 3yo has recent form figures of 97-632, which includes a placed effort at this track, suggesting it can go well here. Usually held up with high confidence, it will be produced late against what looks like an uncontested leader. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.79 from 215 runs, while the jockey has a 15% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.6 from 20 rides. It finished second from one run at the course but remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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6Orphanina47/100
Orphanina has a KTB Fit rating of 47 and an official rating of 57. The 3yo has recent form of 0900 and is fitted with first-time headgear in a bid to spark improvement. Usually held up, it is unproven on yielding to soft ground with no course form on record.
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7Sunrise Angel46/100
Sunrise Angel is rated 46 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 64. The 3yo has recent form of 806615 and has been placed twice from three runs on yielding to soft, though it is yet to win on the surface. Usually held up, it has two runs at Gowran resulting in fifth and sixth.
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8Caislean Ni Cuan44/100
Caislean Ni Cuan has a KTB Fit rating of 44 and an official rating of 57. The 3yo has recent form of 750043 and is unproven on yielding to soft ground with no course form on record. Usually held up, it will be ridden by a jockey with a 16% strike rate at Gowran Park.
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9Nephin Mountain43/100
Nephin Mountain is rated 43 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 57. The 3yo has recent form of 513460 and has three runs at Gowran resulting in fifth, fourth and fourth. Usually held up, it is unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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10Venetian Star42/100
Venetian Star has a KTB Fit rating of 42 and an official rating of 62. The 3yo has recent form of 050500 and has one run on yielding to soft with no win or place. Usually held up, it finished fifth from its sole run at Gowran Park.
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11Girl Bear42/100
Girl Bear is rated 42 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 60. The 3yo has recent form of 937890 and is the only front-runner in the field, so should take them along early. It has one run at the course resulting in ninth and remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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12Little Wing42/100
Little Wing has a KTB Fit rating of 42 and an official rating of 57. The 3yo has recent form of 99000 and is unproven on yielding to soft ground. Usually held up, it finished ninth from its one run at Gowran Park.
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13Glamazon41/100
Glamazon is rated 41 on KTB Fit with an official rating of 60. The 3yo has recent form of 493036 and typically settles in midfield. It is unproven on yielding to soft ground with no course form on record.
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14Lar Na Coille35/100
Lar Na Coille has the lowest KTB Fit rating of 35 and an official rating of 48. The 3yo has recent form of 06-00 and is fitted with first-time headgear. Usually settling in midfield, it is unproven on yielding to soft ground with no course form on record.
KTB verdict
Cisterna is the KTB Selection in a race where its late-run style could be well suited if the lone leader gets an easy time of it. The 3yo has shown enough in its recent form to suggest it can land a handicap of this nature, and the trainer and jockey combination both have respectable records at Gowran Park. The main dangers are likely to come from Nazario, who shares the same Fit rating and has strong trainer and jockey course statistics, and Socratea, who is closely rated and represents a yard that performs solidly here. Pocket Jacks and Dandymaria add further depth to what looks a competitive heat on paper.
KTB Selection Cisterna
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:07 UTC, 19 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Cisterna | 10/3 | Bet Victor |
| Nazario | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Socratea | 25/1 | Bet365 |
| Dandymaria | 7/1 | Bet Victor |
| Pocket Jacks | 13/2 | Bet Victor |
| Orphanina | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Sunrise Angel | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Caislean Ni Cuan | 6/1 | Bet365 |
| Nephin Mountain | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Venetian Star | 12/1 | Bet Victor |
| Girl Bear | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Little Wing | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Glamazon | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Lar Na Coille | 28/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 2:10 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Gowran Park results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Gowran Park racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to make the running?
Girl Bear is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the field have previous experience of yielding to soft ground?
Only Sunrise Angel and Venetian Star have run on yielding to soft, with Sunrise Angel placing twice from three starts and Venetian Star showing no win or place from one run; the remainder are unproven.
Which runners have the strongest trainer course records at Gowran Park?
Nazario's trainer has an 18% strike rate with an A/E of 1.11 from 345 runs, while Socratea's trainer has an 11% strike rate with an A/E of 0.99 from 360 runs.
Which horses have previous placed form at Gowran Park?
Cisterna has been placed once from one run, Pocket Jacks has finished second from one run, and Nephin Mountain has three runs resulting in fifth, fourth and fourth.
What is the run-style of the KTB Selection?
Cisterna is usually held up and produces its effort late with medium confidence in that assessment.
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