5:45 Dundalk (AW)
This 0-70 apprentice handicap over 7f on the standard surface at Dundalk features a maximum field of 17 and looks a typically competitive midweek contest. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with three principals all rated 58, underlining how little separates many of these modest performers on the balance of their track records and recent efforts. A genuinely-run race on paper should provide a fair test, with plenty of pace on from the front and those racing handily.
How the race shapes up
A front-runner is likely to be pressed by several prominent racers, producing a genuinely-run, fair test over this trip. With multiple runners noted as prominent or front-running, including the selection Boston Benjamin, the early pace should be strong and the race may be decided from mid-race onwards as the leaders come under pressure. The key question is which of the hold-up performers can time their run effectively off this strong pace without leaving themselves too much to do in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Shoot To Kill58/100
Shoot To Kill is a modest performer with a solid record at this track, including two wins from 16 runs. He steps up from 6f to a trip he has won at three times from 30 starts and holds three wins from 22 runs on standard ground. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he should be involved in the early battle in a race with plenty of pace on. The trainer operates at an 8% strike rate at Dundalk from 196 runs while the jockey is on 7% from 220 rides here, both in line with their figures elsewhere.
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2Mehman58/100
Mehman is a modest performer who has won four times here from 24 starts and holds a solid record on standard ground with four wins and 12 places from 24 runs. He is 0-12 at this trip though has placed three times, and his recent form of 005735 suggests he is competitive without being the strongest finisher. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the strong pace. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Dundalk from 308 runs which is above their 6% elsewhere, while the jockey records a 7% strike rate here from 326 rides in line with his overall figure.
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3Boston Benjamin KTB Selection58/100
Boston Benjamin is the KTB selection, a modest performer who has already won once at this track and once at today's trip. He has form figures of 40-193 this year and is 1 from 3 on standard ground. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he is well placed to take advantage of the expected strong pace up front. Gordon Elliott's 9% strike rate at Dundalk is below his overall mark, but the three-year-old brings the right blend of course form and trip suitability.
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4Coronado King55/100
Coronado King is a modest performer who has been out of form lately with a string of defeats after an early win. He steps up from 5f to 7f today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous tries at the trip. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he should be prominent early in what is set to be a genuinely-run affair. The trainer records a 7% strike rate at Dundalk from 1,341 runs in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey is 10% from 21 rides here. He is half-brother to Castle Lady, a Group 1 winner.
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5Comfort Line51/100
Comfort Line is a modest performer who has won five times at this track from 27 runs. He drops back from 1m2½f to a trip he has won at twice from 16 attempts and holds a solid record on standard ground with five wins from 28 starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the strong pace to materialise for him to be effective. The trainer records a 10% strike rate here from 2,002 runs which is above their 7% at other courses.
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6Rappell51/100
Rappell is a modest performer who has won once from five runs at Dundalk and holds an official rating of 64. Recent form of 210342 shows mixed results but includes placed efforts on this surface where he has one win and three places from six starts. Usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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7Saga Lucia50/100
Saga Lucia is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in five starts. She has twice run creditably at this track without troubling the judge and now steps up from 6f to 7f for the first time. The trainer and jockey both operate at their standard level here.
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8Iff In Doubt49/100
Iff In Doubt is a modest performer with a solid record at this track, having won once from eight runs here. He has also won at this trip and on the standard surface, though recent form has been patchy. Drawn 17 of 14 declared.
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9Faoladh48/100
Faoladh is a modest performer with a mixed recent record including a win and a couple of placed efforts. He has run three times at Dundalk without placing and shows no win or place from four starts on standard ground.
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10Phoenix Pairc47/100
Phoenix Pairc is a modest performer who has won once from three starts at this track and once from three runs on standard going. He has also won at today's trip but his recent form is patchy.
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11Big Jake46/100
Big Jake is a modest performer who has shown little in four runs to date and was well held when eighth on his only visit here. He is half-brother to Chriszoff. Drops back in trip to an untried 7f today.
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12Zheleznaya Dama43/100
Zheleznaya Dama is a modest performer who has been up and down this year with a recent win at this trip but also two heavy defeats. She makes a first appearance at Dundalk on standard ground where she remains unproven.
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13Battle Borne43/100
Battle Borne is a limited performer who has won once at this track and once at today's trip. Recent form has been poor and he is now 0 from 10 since his last success.
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14Socratea43/100
Socratea has shown very little in three starts so far and looks a modest performer on the balance of what he has produced. Dropping back from 1m1f to an untried 7f poses a fresh question and the small-sample going data leaves suitability on standard ground unknown.
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15Eichan San41/100
Eichan San is a limited performer who has shown only modest form this year. He has run just once at Dundalk and once on standard ground, both without placing, though has been placed at today's trip without winning.
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16Montevetro40/100
Montevetro is a modest performer who has shown some ability on his better days but has been well below form on his last two starts. He is half-brother to Mac Swiney. Drops back to 7f today having last run over a mile and that trip change is an unknown.
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17Dervo Annie34/100
Dervo Annie is a limited sort who has failed to place in three runs at this track and looks no better than modest on recent form. Placed once at this trip but overall record offers little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Boston Benjamin stands out as the KTB Selection in a race where the principals are closely matched on ratings. The three-year-old has already shown his liking for this track and trip, winning at both, and his prominent style looks ideally suited to the expected strong pace. He can build on his 40-193 form this year to land this apprentice handicap. The main dangers are the course specialists Shoot To Kill and Mehman, both with strong Dundalk records and capable of figuring prominently, while Comfort Line and Coronado King add further depth to a competitive field.
KTB Selection Boston Benjamin
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:17am, 23 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Shoot To Kill | 12/1 | BetTom, 1:02am |
| Mehman | 4/1 | BetTom, 1:02am |
| Boston Benjamin | 6/1 | BetTom, 1:02am |
| Coronado King | 22/1 | BetTom, 1:02am |
| Comfort Line | 28/1 | BoyleSports, 1:02am |
| Rappell | 11/2 | Bet365, 1:02am |
| Saga Lucia | 16/1 | BetTom, 1:02am |
| Iff In Doubt | 11/2 | Bet365, 1:02am |
| Faoladh | 7/1 | BetTom, 1:02am |
| Phoenix Pairc | 14/1 | Bet365, 1:02am |
| Big Jake | 16/1 | BetTom, 1:02am |
| Zheleznaya Dama | 16/1 | BetTom, 1:02am |
| Battle Borne | 28/1 | BetTom, 1:02am |
| Socratea | 25/1 | BetTom, 1:02am |
| Eichan San | 7/2 | Bet365, 1:02am |
| Montevetro | 33/1 | BetTom, 1:02am |
| Dervo Annie | 20/1 | BoyleSports, 1:02am |
This is the narrative read of the 5:45 Dundalk (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Dundalk (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Dundalk (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Dundalk (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Dundalk?
Mehman and Comfort Line both have four and five wins respectively at the track, with Mehman winning four from 24 and Comfort Line five from 27.
How does the expected pace shape influence the prominent runners?
With a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types in a genuinely-run race, the prominent runners including Boston Benjamin, Shoot To Kill, Coronado King and Rappell should be able to get a good position without over-exerting early.
What is the trip and going record for the selection Boston Benjamin?
Boston Benjamin has won once at today's 7f trip and is 1 from 3 on standard ground.
Which trainers hold above-average strike rates at Dundalk in this field?
P J F Murphy (10%), Adrian McGuinness (10%), Paul W Flynn (10%), Edward Lynam (13%), M D O'Callaghan (11%), Daniel James Murphy (15%) and A Oliver (12%) all hold strike rates at Dundalk that are above their records elsewhere.
Are there any runners stepping up or down in trip significantly?
Coronado King steps up from 5f to 7f, Comfort Line drops back from 1m2½f, Saga Lucia steps up from 6f, Socratea drops back from 1m1f, and Montevetro drops back from a mile.
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