12:55 Doncaster
This Class 2 handicap over 5f at Doncaster on heavy ground brings together ten sprinters, several of whom carry useful form yet face questions about the trip, the surface or the track itself. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Luna A Inbhir Nis heading the list on 60 despite being unproven on heavy and at the course, while Al Shabab Storm, Eternal Sunshine, Sovereign Spell and King of Light sit close behind on 58, 55, 55 and 52 respectively. The race is run in testing conditions and the official ratings range from 81 to 103, so class and adaptability to the mud will be at a premium.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two confirmed front-runners in the field and several more who race prominently. Luna A Inbhir Nis from stall 1 and Eternal Sunshine are both habitual pace-setters, while Sovereign Spell, Ancient State, Milford and Schrodinger's Cat like to race handily. This early speed could set the race up for hold-up performers to come through late, posing the key question of whether the leaders will fold in the testing ground or whether one of the prominent runners can dictate and hold on.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Luna A Inbhir Nis KTB Selection60/100
Luna A Inbhir Nis is a useful performer who has won six times at this trip from 18 starts and arrives off an official rating of 99. The yard has a 7% strike rate at Doncaster while Jason Hart is operating at 8% here, below his 12% at other tracks. No experience on heavy ground makes today an unknown on that front and this is the horse's first run at the course. As a confirmed front-runner drawn in stall 1 he is sure to set the early fractions in a race where the pace is expected to be strong. Dropping in class looks a positive and the selection will hope that his proven speed at the minimum trip can see him repel challengers even if the ground proves testing.
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2Al Shabab Storm58/100
Al Shabab Storm is a useful performer on his day and arrives in solid recent form with a 103 official rating. He has placed once from four runs at Doncaster and drops back to 5f where he has won once from three starts, though he is unplaced in two runs on heavy ground. Trainer Michael Appleby has a 9% strike rate at the track from 406 runs, in line with his record elsewhere, while jockey Harry Vigors is yet to score from 10 rides here. Typically settling in midfield, he will look to come through late in a race with a strong pace up front. The combination of a stiff handicap mark and limited joy on heavy ground means he will need to be at his very best.
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3Eternal Sunshine55/100
Eternal Sunshine is a fair performer who has won once from three starts at this track and has also won at today's trip. Recent form of 021020 shows a mix of results but nothing standout in stronger company lately. Trainer records a 9% strike rate here in line with his overall figure while the horse remains unproven on heavy ground. As one of the front-runners he is likely to be prominent from an early stage and could set the race up alongside Luna A Inbhir Nis. The booking of Lauren Young, who has an 11% strike rate at Doncaster from only nine rides, adds a positive note to his claims.
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4Sovereign Spell55/100
Sovereign Spell is a fair 3-year-old with a solid recent record that includes two wins at this trip. He has placed on his only visit to Doncaster and the trainer operates at a 14% strike rate here, in line with his overall figure. He is unproven on heavy ground though, which adds an unknown to the equation. Usually racing prominently, he will be handy in a race where the pace is likely to be strong. The Kevin Philippart de Foy yard's 20% strike rate when teaming up with Rowan Scott gives further reason to respect the colt.
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5King of Light52/100
King of Light is a useful performer who has won four times at this trip from 21 attempts. Has run twice at Doncaster without placing and is drawn 10 of 10. Trainer records an 8% strike rate here from 182 runs, in line with their record elsewhere, while the horse has won once from two starts on heavy ground. Usually held up, he is the type to benefit if the strong pace collapses late as the race shape suggests. Dropping in class is another plus and the booking of Rossa Ryan, who has a 12% strike rate at the track, strengthens his claims.
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6Ancient State51/100
Ancient State is a fair performer who has won five times at this trip from 12 starts and also landed a race here from two visits to Doncaster. He has been competitive in recent Class 2 company with form figures of 552145 and holds an official rating of 89. The trainer records an 11% strike rate at the track from nine runs while the horse has failed to place in his only attempt on heavy ground.
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7Rosario50/100
Rosario is a fair performer who has placed twice from four runs at this track without winning. Has won three times at today's trip but showed little on his one attempt on heavy ground. Trainer's 15% strike rate at Doncaster sits in line with their record elsewhere.
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8Milford47/100
Milford is a fair performer who has been placed on heavy ground twice from three starts and has course form that includes a second here. He drops back to 5f today having won at the trip earlier in his career. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate at Doncaster from 242 runs, in line with their record elsewhere.
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9Schrodinger's Cat42/100
Schrodinger's Cat is a fair 3-year-old who has won twice at this trip but has struggled since early summer, finishing no better than sixth on his last six starts. He has run only once at Doncaster, finishing 13th, while the trainer's 6% strike rate at the track is in line with his overall figure. The horse remains unproven on heavy ground.
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10Boston Dan38/100
Boston Dan is a fair performer who has won twice this year but has been hit and miss since. He has won on heavy ground and at this trip yet showed little when seventh of nine on his only visit to Doncaster. Tim Easterby has a 7% strike rate at the track from 1,588 runs, below his 10% elsewhere.
KTB verdict
Luna A Inbhir Nis is the KTB Selection and has the speed to make the running from stall 1 in a race where the pace is set to be strong. His six wins at the minimum trip underline his effectiveness at this distance and the drop in class is in his favour, even if heavy ground and the course itself represent unknowns. The main dangers are likely to come from those who can benefit if the front-runners go too hard, with King of Light particularly interesting given his record on heavy and hold-up style. Eternal Sunshine and Sovereign Spell, both prominent runners with placed course form, add depth to what looks a competitive sprint.
KTB Selection Luna A Inbhir Nis
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:04am, 24 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Luna A Inbhir Nis | 16/1 | Bet Victor, 1:04am |
| Al Shabab Storm | 11/4 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Eternal Sunshine | 20/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Sovereign Spell | 11/1 | Bet Victor, 1:04am |
| King of Light | 5/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Ancient State | 8/1 | William Hill, 1:04am |
| Rosario | 15/2 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Milford | 5/1 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Schrodinger's Cat | 25/1 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Boston Dan | 20/1 | Bet Victor, 1:04am |
This is the narrative read of the 12:55 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Doncaster racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are unproven on heavy ground?
Luna A Inbhir Nis, Eternal Sunshine, Sovereign Spell and Schrodinger's Cat have no runs on heavy ground.
Who are the confirmed front-runners in the race?
Luna A Inbhir Nis and Eternal Sunshine both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
Which horse has the best recent record on heavy ground?
King of Light has won once from two starts on heavy with one place, while Milford has been placed twice from three starts on heavy without winning.
How many wins has Luna A Inbhir Nis recorded at 5f?
Luna A Inbhir Nis has won six times at this trip from 18 starts.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Doncaster among those represented?
Roger Teal has a 15% strike rate at Doncaster from 46 runs.
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