4:12 Bath
A 15-runner Class 6 handicap over the extended 5f at Bath on heavy ground looks a typically competitive affair at this level. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Legendsoftheland heading the list on 60, closely followed by Call Time on 59 and Act of Violence on 57. Several runners have course form or placed efforts on heavy ground, yet many are unproven in the conditions, making this an open race where the strong pace expected could play a significant role.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up and the pace shape rated as strong with high confidence, the race is likely to be run at a proper gallop. Act of Violence, Connie's Rose and several prominent racers such as Legendsoftheland, Iconic Dawn and Two And Two should ensure the leaders go hard early. This sets up the key question of whether the pace will collapse in the closing stages, which would play into the hands of hold-up performers like Call Time, Savannah Smiles and Red Snapper coming from off the speed.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Legendsoftheland KTB Selection60/100
Legendsoftheland is the KTB selection. This limited performer has won once from four runs at Bath and once from seven starts at this trip. The yard posts a 14% strike rate at the track from 292 runs, which is above their 7% at other tracks, while both trainer and jockey record 14% at Bath. He usually races handily on or close to the lead with high confidence in that run-style. Unproven on heavy ground and coming off mixed recent form of 313284 from an OR of 57, he is drawn in stall 2 which could be handy in a strongly-run race.
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2Call Time59/100
Call Time is a modest performer who has won once from eight runs at Bath. He is 3 from 5 on heavy ground without scoring a win on the surface. Usually held up and producing his effort late with medium confidence, he drops back to 5f today having won three times at the trip from 20 starts though his last run was over 6f. The trainer records an 8% strike rate at the track from 553 runs which is in line with their 7% at other courses, while the jockey has a 13% strike rate at Bath from 48 rides. Recent form of 351122 from an OR of 61 suggests he remains competitive.
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3Act of Violence57/100
Act of Violence is a modest performer with a recent win over 6f on soft ground and he has been consistent enough to place three times from his last six starts. Dropping in class, he tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence. The trainer's 11% strike rate at Bath from 886 runs is above his 9% at other tracks while this is the horse's first run here. He has 1 run on heavy with no win or place and has been placed once at 5f without winning. Recent form reads 413246 from an OR of 62 and he is drawn in stall 1.
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4Connie's Rose56/100
Connie's Rose is a limited class performer who has been consistent rather than progressive of late with a string of minor placings. She has run 18 times at Bath without winning, including placed efforts, and is drawn widest of all in stall 17 in a big field. Dropping in class to a trip she has won at before, she has placed 2 of 4 on heavy ground so the conditions should suit. Usually racing on or close to the lead with high confidence in that run-style, her recent form of 433344 comes from an OR of 56.
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5Alkuwarrior55/100
Alkuwarrior is a modest performer who has been running to a similar level this year without winning. He has won at this trip but is unproven on heavy ground and has shown little at Bath in two runs, finishing 9th and 6th. The trainer's 10% strike rate here from 170 runs is in line with their record elsewhere while the jockey has a 33% strike rate at Bath from just 3 rides. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead with medium confidence, his recent form reads 566733 from an OR of 65 and he is drawn in stall 13.
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6Savannah Smiles50/100
Savannah Smiles is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. She does have a win here from 13 runs at Bath and has shown she can handle heavy ground with one win and a place from four attempts. Dropping back to 5f is a plus as she has won at the trip before though she is drawn wide in stall 16 of 15.
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7Neptune Legend48/100
Neptune Legend is a modest performer who has won four times here from seven runs and returns to a track where the yard has an 11% strike rate from 886 runs, above their 9% elsewhere. Drops back to 5f having won at the trip before, though last run was over 6f and he is unproven on heavy ground. Drawn 14 of 15.
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8Red Snapper48/100
Red Snapper is a modest performer who arrives in solid form after two wins and two seconds from his last four starts. He has already won over this trip and on heavy ground, plus he has scored at Bath from three runs there. The trainer holds an 18% strike rate at the track from 11 runs while the 7 lb claimer is taking the ride.
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9Iconic Dawn48/100
Iconic Dawn is a limited performer who has shown bits of form at a higher level but looks out of his depth in this company. Drops back to 5f for the first time today having been running over 6f, which asks a fresh question. Hughie Morrison has an 11% strike rate at Bath from 238 runs while Harry Davies is 4-42 here.
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10Emporess47/100
Emporess is a modest performer who has won once from seven runs at Bath and also has a win on heavy ground from four attempts. Recent form of 90-508 is ordinary and she has been beaten a long way on her last two starts. Trainer's 11% strike rate at the track from 886 runs is above their 9% at other courses.
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11Jenny Jerome46/100
Jenny Jerome is a modest performer who has been placed on her only visit to Bath. Drops back to 5f today having been placed without winning at the trip earlier in the year. Unproven on heavy ground with the yard operating at a 7% strike rate here.
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12Two And Two44/100
Two And Two is a modest performer who has struggled to make an impact in nine starts this year. Drops back to 5f having failed to place in one previous attempt at the trip and showed no promise on his only run on heavy ground. Trainer Simon Hodgson has a 7% strike rate at Bath from 81 runs in line with his record elsewhere.
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13Arnaz43/100
Arnaz is a modest performer who arrives in ordinary recent form after a string of mid-field finishes. Drops back to an untried 5f trip on heavy ground where he has just the one unplaced run to date. Trainer records an 8% strike rate at Bath from 177 runs in line with his overall figure.
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14Maid In Devon42/100
Maid In Devon is a modest performer who has shown little since winning a 5f novice on debut last year. Has run just once at Bath, finishing fourth, while the trainer holds a 10% strike rate here that sits in line with his record elsewhere. Unproven on heavy ground and has failed to place in three runs at this trip.
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15Lahina Bay36/100
Lahina Bay is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place three times from her last six starts and holds an official rating of 55. She has won once from five runs at Bath and holds a 1-from-3 record on heavy ground, while the trainer's 7% strike rate at the track is in line with their record elsewhere. The wide draw in stall 15 of 15 is noted but the 6-year-old has won twice at today's trip from seven attempts.
KTB verdict
Legendsoftheland is the KTB selection. A limited performer with a win from four runs at Bath and from seven at this trip, he benefits from the trainer's above-average 14% strike rate at the venue and his prominent run-style could be an asset if the strong pace materialises as expected. Unproven on heavy ground and with mixed recent form, he still holds the strongest KTB Fit rating in a race where several have questions to answer. The main dangers are Call Time, who has placed form on heavy and a hold-up style that could be favoured if the leaders fold, and Act of Violence, who brings a recent 6f win on soft and the class drop while likely to set the pace. Connie's Rose and Alkuwarrior are next in the KTB order and cannot be dismissed.
KTB Selection Legendsoftheland
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:03am, 29 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Legendsoftheland | 9/2 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Call Time | 6/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Act of Violence | 8/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Connie's Rose | 12/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Alkuwarrior | 11/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Savannah Smiles | 28/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Neptune Legend | 20/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Red Snapper | 7/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Iconic Dawn | 8/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Emporess | 16/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Jenny Jerome | 16/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Two And Two | 9/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Arnaz | 12/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Maid In Devon | 17/2 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Lahina Bay | 16/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 4:12 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Bath racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is best suited if the strong pace collapses late?
Hold-up horses such as Call Time, Savannah Smiles and Red Snapper are likely to be favoured if the strong pace collapses late.
How many wins has Neptune Legend recorded at Bath?
Neptune Legend has won four times here from seven runs.
Which runners are unproven on heavy ground?
Legendsoftheland, Alkuwarrior, Neptune Legend, Iconic Dawn, Jenny Jerome, Two And Two, Arnaz and Maid In Devon are unproven on heavy ground.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Bath among those represented?
Kathy Turner holds an 18% strike rate at the track from 11 runs.
How many times has Connie's Rose run at Bath without winning?
Connie's Rose has run 18 times at Bath without winning.
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