12:42 Bath

The KTB Fit ranking

1. 1Walcourt KTB Selection58/100

   Form 7 · Jim Boyle · Joe Leavy

   Family: half-brother to Cushty (1 win from 16 runs). The dam has had 3 other runners, 2 of them winners.

   Walcourt showed little when seventh on his debut over 7f and now steps up to an untried mile on heavy ground with only one previous run in the book. The yard records a 16% strike rate at Bath from 107 runs which is above their 10% at other tracks while the jockey is on a 9% strike rate here from 101 rides in line with his record elsewhere. Family is modest with half-brother Cushty managing one win from 16 starts and the dam producing two other winners from three runners. He drops in class here and is expected to settle in midfield. This remains very much unknown territory on the surface but the selection has been given the nod on the strength of connections at the venue.

2. 2Don't Tempt Harry52/100

   Adrian Wintle · Finley Marsh

   Don't Tempt Harry is a newcomer by Harry Angel out of a modest dam who has produced only minor winners. The yard has a 14% strike rate at Bath from 292 runs, above their 7% elsewhere, while Finley Marsh matches that 14% figure here from 264 rides. Data confidence is low so any assessment remains tentative. By a sire with a solid 13% overall win rate the colt represents a yard that clearly likes the track. He is drawn wide which may not be ideal in a steadily-run affair where being handy pays. The picture is far from clear but the trainer and jockey combination at Bath commands respect.

3. 3Lady Phillips49/100

   Form 2 · Ralph Beckett · Hector Crouch

   Family: half-sister to Venetia, a Listed winner (2 wins from 10 runs). The dam has had 2 other runners, 2 of them winners.

   Lady Phillips was placed second on debut over this trip and showed enough to suggest she can improve. A half-sister to Listed winner Venetia from a family that has produced winners, she now steps up into a Class 3 at Bath. Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 14% strike rate here from 268 runs in line with his overall record while Hector Crouch posts an 18% strike rate from 150 rides at the track in line with his elsewhere. She is unproven on heavy ground and will be held up to produce her effort late. The placed form gives her a clear edge in experience over most of her rivals and she is likely to be suited by the tactical nature of the race.

4. 4Roos Racing Rocket49/100

   Charlie Johnston · Jason Hart

   Family: half-brother to Dawn Charger, a Group 3 winner (3 wins from 11 runs). The dam has had 4 other runners, 3 of them winners.

   Roos Racing Rocket is a newcomer from the Charlie Johnston yard which has a 24% strike rate at Bath from 29 runs, in line with their overall record. The family looks promising as a half-brother to Group 3 winner Dawn Charger with the dam also producing three other winners from four runners. Jason Hart has a 0% strike rate from five rides at the track and with no racecourse form or official rating to go on the picture remains very unclear. By Dawn Approach, whose progeny have an 8% win rate overall, the colt is hard to assess. A low draw could be an advantage in a race where handy positioning is likely to pay.

5. 5Civilon46/100

   Hughie Morrison · David Probert

   Family: half-brother to Infrastructure (2 wins from 16 runs). The dam has had 5 other runners, 3 of them winners.

   Civilon is a debutant whose pedigree offers some encouragement as a half-brother to a dual winner and from a dam that has already produced three winners. The yard's 11 percent strike rate at Bath sits in line with their overall record while Probert's 13 percent at the track is also broadly in line with his wider figures. With low data confidence and no racecourse evidence the colt's ability remains an open question on heavy ground. By Nathaniel, a sire with a 12% win rate, he has a middle draw to work from. The lack of any public form makes him difficult to weigh up against those who have already run.

6. 6Smash Royale45/100

   Form 09 · Emma Lavelle · Charles Bishop

   Family: half-brother to Hariboux (3 wins from 5 runs). The dam has had 5 other runners, 3 of them winners.

   Smash Royale has shown little in two starts so far, finishing ninth on debut and then again last time out. First-time headgear is now applied to a half-brother to a smart winner, though the small sample and lack of any placed form leave this a very tentative profile on heavy ground. The yard records a 15% strike rate at Bath from 41 runs while Charles Bishop posts an 11% strike rate here from 390 rides. He steps up in class and is expected to settle in midfield.

7. 7Zulu Chieftain45/100

   Jamie Osborne · William Carver

   Zulu Chieftain is a debutant so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background rather than any racecourse evidence. The trainer’s 10% strike rate at Bath is in line with his overall record and the jockey matches that modest level with his own 10% here. With low data confidence and no official rating yet, there is very little to go on beyond the yard’s routine record at the track. By Sea The Moon, whose progeny have a 12% win rate overall.

8. 8Buxted Flyer44/100

   Andrew Balding · Jason Watson

   Family: half-brother to Loose Cannon (1 win from 3 runs). The dam has had 3 other runners, 2 of them winners.

   Buxted Flyer is a newcomer whose half-brother Loose Cannon showed fair early ability and the dam has produced two winners from three other runners. Connections are in solid form at Bath with both trainer and jockey sitting on identical 15% strike rates that match their records elsewhere. With no racecourse form and low data confidence the colt's ability remains an open question on heavy ground from the widest draw. By Muhaarar, a sire with a 12% win rate.

9. 9The Can Can Man43/100

   Form 6 · William Haggas · Harry Davies

   The Can Can Man showed only modest form when sixth on debut over 7f. He now steps up to an untried 1m on heavy ground with just one run in the book. Trainer William Haggas has a 20% strike rate at Bath from 149 runs in line with his overall record while jockey Harry Davies is operating at a 15% strike rate here from 26 rides also in line with his wider figures.

10. 10Radical Bay40/100

    Amanda Perrett · Edward Greatrex

    Family: half-brother to Mission Possible (1 win from 8 runs). The dam has had 2 other runners, 2 of them winners.

    Radical Bay has one run under his belt and steps up from 7f to 1m for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him. The family has produced winners, with the dam responsible for two so far including half-brother Mission Possible. Trainer Amanda Perrett operates at a 16% strike rate at Bath from 260 runs, above her 11% elsewhere, while jockey Edward Greatrex is on an 11% strike rate here from 124 rides, in line with his overall figure. He will be held up and is unproven on heavy ground while stepping up in class.

11. 11Boomshakalak40/100

    Form 70 · Zoe Hawkins · Kieran O'Neill

    Family: half-sister to Adagio, a Grade 1 winner (3 wins from 11 runs). The dam has had 3 other runners, 3 of them winners.

    Boomshakalak has shown little in two starts to date and finished last of 12 on his only visit to Bath. The half-sister to high-class Adagio gives some hope on pedigree but the small sample means that is all it is at this stage. Trainer has a 14% strike rate at the track while jockey operates at 10%. She steps up in class, is held up in her races and remains unproven on heavy ground.

12. 12Silent Wisdom38/100

    Form 8 · Ed Walker · Kieran Shoemark

    Family: half-brother to Celtic Chariot (2 wins from 10 runs). The dam has had 1 other runner, a winner.

    Silent Wisdom showed little on debut over 7f and now steps up to an untried 1m on heavy ground. The half-brother to a modest dual winner comes from a yard with a 14% strike rate at Bath from 79 runs, in line with their overall record, while Kieran Shoemark has a 12% strike rate at the track from 161 rides, also matching his wider figure. With only one run on the board and low data confidence this remains very much unknown territory. He is expected to settle in midfield.